應(yīng)急物流動態(tài)協(xié)同決策過程體系研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-12 08:34
【摘要】：一系列突發(fā)公共事件例如：2008年南方雨雪冰凍災(zāi)害、青海玉樹地震、“5.12”汶川地震、舟曲泥石流災(zāi)害等諸如此類突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生和應(yīng)急處理，使應(yīng)急物流成為近年來國內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)界的研究熱點(diǎn)之一。突發(fā)性公共事件呈現(xiàn)出頻發(fā)性、突發(fā)性和鏈狀性特征，影響愈發(fā)嚴(yán)重。應(yīng)對突發(fā)公共事件是一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程。然而，在突發(fā)公共事件發(fā)生后，救援情景隨著時空的變化而動態(tài)變化，應(yīng)急物流在動態(tài)情景的前提下，救援的成敗便主要體現(xiàn)在應(yīng)急物流在短時間內(nèi)獲取應(yīng)急物資的快慢和運(yùn)輸水平的高低上面。然而，在突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后，制定科學(xué)的應(yīng)急決策是應(yīng)急管理響應(yīng)的第一步，是應(yīng)對突發(fā)事件的基礎(chǔ)，是對日后救援工作的引導(dǎo)和風(fēng)向標(biāo)，是評價應(yīng)急工作成功與否的關(guān)鍵。因此，對突發(fā)公共事件的研究，急需從決策的方面入手，需在充分考慮救援情景的動態(tài)性的前提下，結(jié)合協(xié)同優(yōu)化的理論，對應(yīng)急物流的決策理論進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)化的研究和改進(jìn)。 本論文的研究采用了定量分析和定性分析相結(jié)合的方法。開篇首先匯總了國內(nèi)外研究突發(fā)公共事件的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，分析了它們所研究的內(nèi)容和成果。在有關(guān)應(yīng)急物流的動態(tài)協(xié)同決策方面，從已有的文獻(xiàn)所得出的結(jié)論中可以看出，在此研究領(lǐng)域的一些資深學(xué)者已經(jīng)明確表明，對其研究是有很大的理論價值和實(shí)踐意義的。但大部分學(xué)者對其的研究還未深入到動態(tài)性，仍然僅僅對其靜態(tài)性進(jìn)行了大量研究。進(jìn)而可以看出，，在現(xiàn)階段，對應(yīng)急物流決策的動態(tài)研究缺乏系統(tǒng)的理論與深入的研究。在這種背景下提出了本文研究內(nèi)容的必要性。 其次，論文闡述了本論文中所運(yùn)用到的理論基礎(chǔ)，即：應(yīng)急物流相關(guān)理論、協(xié)同論、“情景-分析”法、動態(tài)規(guī)劃等。為后面構(gòu)造應(yīng)急物流虛擬協(xié)同體及構(gòu)建應(yīng)急物資分配的動態(tài)協(xié)同決策調(diào)撥規(guī)劃模型，進(jìn)行了理論鋪墊。 再次，分析了應(yīng)急物流協(xié)同的四大因素即：國務(wù)院與各地政府間協(xié)同、信息協(xié)同、運(yùn)輸協(xié)同、物資協(xié)同。在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了應(yīng)急物流虛擬協(xié)同體及應(yīng)急物流虛擬協(xié)同體信息平臺，并對所構(gòu)建的應(yīng)急物流虛擬協(xié)同體系統(tǒng)的可靠性進(jìn)行了分析。最后，研究分析了隨著救災(zāi)時間和空間的變化，救援物資種類和數(shù)量、救災(zāi)的路網(wǎng)環(huán)境也在相應(yīng)動態(tài)變化的過程。并在構(gòu)建應(yīng)急物流虛擬協(xié)同體的基礎(chǔ)上，協(xié)同交通、信息等因素，圍繞突發(fā)事件情景演化規(guī)律，做出一個更加符合實(shí)際情況的應(yīng)急物資分配的動態(tài)協(xié)同決策調(diào)撥規(guī)劃模型，以提高應(yīng)急救援的效率。并在實(shí)例分析中得以良好的應(yīng)用。
[Abstract]:A series of unexpected public events such as the 2008 Southern Rainy and Snow Frozen disaster, the Qinghai Yushu earthquake, the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake, the Zhouqu debris flow disaster, and so on, Emergency logistics has become one of the research hotspots in domestic academic circles in recent years. Sudden public events show frequent, sudden and chain characteristics, and the impact is becoming more and more serious. Dealing with public emergencies is a complex system engineering. However, after the public emergency happened, the rescue situation changed dynamically with the change of time and space, and the emergency logistics changed under the premise of the dynamic situation. The success or failure of rescue is mainly reflected in the speed of obtaining emergency supplies and the level of transportation in a short period of time. However, making scientific emergency decision is the first step of emergency management response, the basis of emergency response, the guide and wind vane of rescue work in the future, and the key to evaluate the success of emergency work. Therefore, it is urgent to study the emergency public events from the aspect of decision making. On the premise of fully considering the dynamic nature of rescue situations and combining the theory of collaborative optimization, the decision-making theory of emergency logistics should be systematically studied and improved. This paper adopts the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. At the beginning of the chapter, we summarize the literature about public emergencies at home and abroad, and analyze their contents and achievements. In the aspect of dynamic collaborative decision making of emergency logistics, it can be seen from the conclusions drawn from the existing literature that some senior scholars in this field have clearly indicated that the study of emergency logistics has great theoretical value and practical significance. However, most scholars have not deeply studied its dynamic nature, and still do a lot of research on its static nature. Furthermore, it can be seen that, at present, the dynamic research on emergency logistics decision is lack of systematic theory and in-depth research. Under this background, the necessity of this paper is put forward. Secondly, the paper describes the theoretical basis of this paper, namely: emergency logistics related theory, synergy theory, "situational analysis" method, dynamic programming and so on. This paper provides a theoretical basis for constructing the virtual synergy of emergency logistics and the dynamic collaborative decision allocation planning model for the allocation of emergency materials. Thirdly, four factors of emergency logistics coordination are analyzed: coordination between the State Council and local governments, information coordination, transportation coordination, and material coordination. On this basis, the information platform of emergency logistics virtual synergy and emergency logistics virtual synergy is established, and the reliability of the emergency logistics virtual synergy system is analyzed. Finally, with the change of disaster relief time and space, the type and quantity of relief materials, the road network environment of disaster relief is also changing dynamically. On the basis of constructing virtual synergetic body of emergency logistics, cooperating with traffic, information and other factors, a dynamic coordinated decision-making and allocation planning model of emergency material allocation is made around the evolution law of emergency situation, which is more in line with the actual situation. To improve the efficiency of emergency rescue. And it can be applied well in the analysis of examples.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.2
本文編號：2238476
[Abstract]:A series of unexpected public events such as the 2008 Southern Rainy and Snow Frozen disaster, the Qinghai Yushu earthquake, the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake, the Zhouqu debris flow disaster, and so on, Emergency logistics has become one of the research hotspots in domestic academic circles in recent years. Sudden public events show frequent, sudden and chain characteristics, and the impact is becoming more and more serious. Dealing with public emergencies is a complex system engineering. However, after the public emergency happened, the rescue situation changed dynamically with the change of time and space, and the emergency logistics changed under the premise of the dynamic situation. The success or failure of rescue is mainly reflected in the speed of obtaining emergency supplies and the level of transportation in a short period of time. However, making scientific emergency decision is the first step of emergency management response, the basis of emergency response, the guide and wind vane of rescue work in the future, and the key to evaluate the success of emergency work. Therefore, it is urgent to study the emergency public events from the aspect of decision making. On the premise of fully considering the dynamic nature of rescue situations and combining the theory of collaborative optimization, the decision-making theory of emergency logistics should be systematically studied and improved. This paper adopts the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. At the beginning of the chapter, we summarize the literature about public emergencies at home and abroad, and analyze their contents and achievements. In the aspect of dynamic collaborative decision making of emergency logistics, it can be seen from the conclusions drawn from the existing literature that some senior scholars in this field have clearly indicated that the study of emergency logistics has great theoretical value and practical significance. However, most scholars have not deeply studied its dynamic nature, and still do a lot of research on its static nature. Furthermore, it can be seen that, at present, the dynamic research on emergency logistics decision is lack of systematic theory and in-depth research. Under this background, the necessity of this paper is put forward. Secondly, the paper describes the theoretical basis of this paper, namely: emergency logistics related theory, synergy theory, "situational analysis" method, dynamic programming and so on. This paper provides a theoretical basis for constructing the virtual synergy of emergency logistics and the dynamic collaborative decision allocation planning model for the allocation of emergency materials. Thirdly, four factors of emergency logistics coordination are analyzed: coordination between the State Council and local governments, information coordination, transportation coordination, and material coordination. On this basis, the information platform of emergency logistics virtual synergy and emergency logistics virtual synergy is established, and the reliability of the emergency logistics virtual synergy system is analyzed. Finally, with the change of disaster relief time and space, the type and quantity of relief materials, the road network environment of disaster relief is also changing dynamically. On the basis of constructing virtual synergetic body of emergency logistics, cooperating with traffic, information and other factors, a dynamic coordinated decision-making and allocation planning model of emergency material allocation is made around the evolution law of emergency situation, which is more in line with the actual situation. To improve the efficiency of emergency rescue. And it can be applied well in the analysis of examples.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.2
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