本文關(guān)鍵詞： 銀行信貸 供給約束 房價(jià)波動 面板數(shù)據(jù)模型　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國從上個(gè)世紀(jì)80年代開始，實(shí)行土地使用制度和住房體制改革。隨著住房體制改革的深入和城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)了快速發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在帶動相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，增加就業(yè)，改善居民住房消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)方面發(fā)揮了重要作用，我國于2003年將房地產(chǎn)業(yè)列入經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。但是伴隨著房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展也帶來了房價(jià)的持續(xù)上漲，房價(jià)的過快上漲對剛性住房需求造成巨大壓力，從長期來看也不利于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展，對其他行業(yè)的發(fā)展也會帶來沖擊。國家針對房價(jià)的上漲也出臺了控制信貸流向房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、打擊開發(fā)商囤積土地行為、改革土地出讓方式等一系列措施，但是房價(jià)依然高位運(yùn)行。 本文以此為背景從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)角度研究銀行信貸、土地供應(yīng)約束對房價(jià)的影響。本文首先對我國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了分析，房價(jià)從2003年開始漲幅變大，房地產(chǎn)住宅投資規(guī)�？傮w呈上漲趨勢，但是當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)住宅投資占固定資產(chǎn)投資的比重比前幾年要低。對房地產(chǎn)信貸市場的觀察發(fā)現(xiàn)橫向來看銀行信貸資金較多的流向房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)，，縱向來看開發(fā)商資金來源中國內(nèi)貸款所占的比例呈下降趨勢。對土地市場的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，政府對土地供應(yīng)量進(jìn)行限制不能有效的按照市場調(diào)節(jié)需求，這與快速發(fā)展的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)需要大量土地供應(yīng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)相矛盾。其次本文先從理論層面對銀行信貸、供給約束影響房價(jià)波動的機(jī)制進(jìn)行分析。理論分析認(rèn)為銀行信貸投向房地產(chǎn)業(yè)會刺激住房需求，另外一方面也會緩解開發(fā)商的資金壓力，提高開發(fā)商的議價(jià)能力。因此無論從開發(fā)商角度還是從住房消費(fèi)需求角度銀行信貸都對房價(jià)產(chǎn)生正相關(guān)的關(guān)系。同時(shí)本文理論分析認(rèn)為土地供應(yīng)不足也是推動房價(jià)上漲的一個(gè)重要因素。對30個(gè)省份進(jìn)行的面板數(shù)據(jù)模型分析也認(rèn)為銀行信貸過度、土地供應(yīng)不足是造成大部分省份房價(jià)上漲的重要因素。最后本文認(rèn)為當(dāng)前房價(jià)居高不下，政府需要根據(jù)區(qū)域的發(fā)展調(diào)整土地供應(yīng)政策，銀行應(yīng)對信貸資金實(shí)行有效控制，防止信貸資金過多的投向房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)，造成房價(jià)的過快上漲。
[Abstract]:In -20s, China began to implement the land use system and housing system reform, with the deepening of the housing system reform and the advancement of the urbanization process. The real estate industry has achieved rapid development. The real estate industry has played an important role in driving the development of related industries, increasing employment and improving the housing consumption structure. In 2003, China listed the real estate industry as the pillar industry of economic development, but with the rapid development of the real estate industry, it also brought about the continuous rise of house prices. The rapid rise of house prices has caused great pressure on the rigid housing demand, which is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate industry in the long run. The government has also introduced a series of measures to control the flow of credit to the real estate industry, crack down on land hoarding by developers, and reform the land transfer mode. But house prices are still high. Based on this background, this paper studies the impact of bank credit and land supply constraints on housing prices from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development of China's real estate market. Since 2003, house prices have increased greatly, and the scale of real estate investment has been on the rise. However, the proportion of real estate investment in fixed assets investment is lower than that in previous years. The observation of the real estate credit market shows that the bank credit funds flow to the real estate enterprises. The analysis of land market shows that the government can not effectively regulate the demand of land supply according to the restriction of land supply. This with the rapid development of real estate needs a large number of land supply reality. Secondly, this paper first from the theoretical level of bank credit. Theoretical analysis shows that bank credit investment in real estate will stimulate housing demand, on the other hand, it will ease the financial pressure of developers. Therefore, whether from the perspective of developers or from the point of view of housing consumer demand, bank credit has a positive correlation on housing prices. At the same time, the theoretical analysis of this paper believes that the lack of land supply is also to promote housing. The panel data model analysis of 30 provinces also shows that bank credit is excessive. The shortage of land supply is an important factor for the rise of housing prices in most provinces. Finally, this paper argues that the current high housing prices, the government needs to adjust the land supply policy according to the development of the region. Banks should implement effective control of credit funds to prevent excessive investment in real estate enterprises, resulting in a rapid rise in house prices.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.45;F299.23

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 嚴(yán)氏紅映;越南房地產(chǎn)信貸與房地產(chǎn)市場關(guān)系研究[D];廣西大學(xué);2016年

2 祝越;我國銀行房地產(chǎn)信貸對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動的影響[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2016年

本文編號：1455765