發(fā)布時間：2018-04-19 12:00

  本文選題：印度尼西亞 + 外商直接投資��； 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：本研究旨在調(diào)查和分析國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、通貨膨脹率、匯率及對外開放程度對印度尼西亞長期和短期外商直接投資的影響。本研通過研究1998年印度尼西亞金融危機前后部分宏觀經(jīng)濟因素和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件對外國直接投資的影響。但是,這項研究并不把金融危機視為影響外商直接投資的因素之一,而是假設(shè)金融危機是國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的偶發(fā)事情。本文的數(shù)據(jù)直接或間接來自于印度尼西亞銀行網(wǎng)站及印度尼西亞金融統(tǒng)計報告。此外,本研究中還使用了世界銀行和國際金融統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)。本研究的因變量是FDI,自變量由印度尼西亞國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、通貨膨脹率、匯率和開放度組成。這項研究還將基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也作為印度尼西亞外商直接投資的影響因素。本研究使用的分析方法是誤差修正模型。誤差修正模型是由Engle和Granger共同開發(fā)的。它是一種協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟變量的短期行為與長期行為的手段。著名的Grange表述定理表明,如果變量X與Y是協(xié)整的,則它們間的短期非均衡關(guān)系總能由一個誤差修正模型表述。本研究的分析可以分為幾個階段,即:(1)單位根檢驗:分析所使用的數(shù)據(jù)是否包含根單位,以便確定數(shù)據(jù)是否平穩(wěn);(2)相關(guān)水平檢驗:確定變量經(jīng)過多少次差分能夠使得數(shù)據(jù)平穩(wěn)(3)協(xié)整檢驗:確定所研究的變量是否具有長久的相互關(guān)系;(4)誤差校正模型的分析:分析變量在短期內(nèi)的影響;(5)白噪聲測試:測試模型是否通過多重共線性、異方差、正態(tài)分布和自相關(guān)等經(jīng)典假設(shè)檢驗。研究結(jié)果顯示,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、通貨膨脹率和貿(mào)易開放度對印度尼西亞的短期和長期外商直接投資都有顯著影響。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn),從長期來看,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施會對外商直接投資產(chǎn)生顯著的正面影響;而在短期內(nèi),基建對印度尼西亞的外商直接投資會產(chǎn)生積極影響,但影響并不顯著。從長期和短期來看,匯率變動對印度尼西亞的外商直接投資都有顯著的積極影響。具體來說,可以得出以下結(jié)論:(1)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值在一段時間內(nèi)對印度尼西亞的長期和短期外商直接投資流入都有顯著的積極影響。這證明隨著印度尼西亞GDP水平的提高,印度尼西亞的外商直接投資流入量將會增加。國民收入的增加會帶來社會收入的增長,而社會收入的增長又會帶來貨物和服務(wù)需求的增長。因此,GDP是外商直接投資的關(guān)鍵因素;(2)從長遠來看,基建對1985-2015年印度尼西亞的外商直接投資流量產(chǎn)生了積極的影響。作為一種公共服務(wù),基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施可以降低經(jīng)營成本,是吸引外國直接投資流入的重要因素;(3)通貨膨脹對1985-2015年期間印度尼西亞的外商直接投資流入產(chǎn)生了重大的負面影響。研究結(jié)果表明,國內(nèi)高通脹可能會降低外國在該國的投資水平。價格上漲將導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹,為了提高產(chǎn)量,公司在保持收入固定的同時,應(yīng)降低運營成本;(4)匯率對于印度尼西亞1985-2015年期間的外商直接投資流入具有顯著的長期影響。由于匯率會在相對較短的時間內(nèi)發(fā)生變化,所以投資者在短期內(nèi)會考慮匯率變動對公司的盈利能力的影響。由于印度尼西亞等新興市場的外國投資者對匯率進行了回應(yīng),因此,從短期來看,匯率對1985-2015年期間印度尼西亞的外商直接投資流入具有顯著的積極影響;(5)貿(mào)易開放度對1985-2015年期間印度尼西亞長期和短期的外商直接投資產(chǎn)生了顯著影響,這主要是由于外貿(mào)開放度導(dǎo)致了較高的出口水平,而出口水平又反映出全球?qū)τ《饶嵛鱽唶鴥?nèi)商品和服務(wù)需求的增加。高額進口反映出外國投資者有興趣在印度尼西亞投資。從外商直接投資對經(jīng)濟增長的積極和消極影響來看,我們可以得出結(jié)論,外商直接投資對經(jīng)濟增長的影響在國家之間有所不同。但是,研究中可以確定是,外商直接投資如何影響東盟的經(jīng)濟增長。這當然也取決于東盟國家的經(jīng)濟條件、技術(shù)和體制。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the effects of gross domestic product, infrastructure, inflation, exchange rate and openness on the long-term and short-term FDI in Indonesia. This research has studied the impact of some macroeconomic factors and infrastructure conditions on foreign direct investment before and after the 1998 Indonesia financial crisis. However, this study does not regard the financial crisis as one of the factors affecting foreign direct investment, but assumes that the financial crisis is an occasional event in the economic development of the country. This data is directly or indirectly derived from the Indonesia bank website and the Indonesia financial statistics. In addition, the world bank is also used in this study. The dependent variable of this study is FDI, the independent variable is composed of Indonesia gross domestic product, inflation rate, exchange rate and openness. This study also uses the infrastructure as a factor to influence foreign direct investment in Indonesia. The analysis method used in this study is error correction model. Error correction The model is developed jointly by Engle and Granger. It is a means to coordinate the short-term and long-term behavior of the economic variables. The famous Grange expression theorem shows that if the variable X and Y are cointegration, the short term non equilibrium relationship between them can always be described by an error correction model. (1) unit root test: whether the data used in the analysis contains the root unit to determine whether the data is stable or not; (2) the correlation level test: the determination of the number of differences can make the data smooth (3) cointegration test: determine whether the studied variable has long long relationship; (4) analysis of error correction model: analysis variable in short The effect of the period; (5) the white noise test: whether the test model passes through the classical hypothesis test, such as multiple collinearity, heteroscedasticity, normal distribution and autocorrelation. The results show that gross domestic product, inflation rate and trade openness have a significant impact on both short-term and long-term FDI in Indonesia. In the short term, infrastructure will have a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Indonesia, but the impact is not significant in the short term. In the long run and in the short term, exchange rate changes have a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Indonesia. To draw the following conclusions: (1) the gross domestic product (GDP) has a positive impact on both long-term and short-term FDI inflows in Indonesia for a period of time. This proves that with the increase of the level of the GDP in Indonesia, the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia will increase. The increase of national income will bring social income. As a result, GDP is a key factor in foreign direct investment. (2) in the long run, infrastructure has a positive impact on the flow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia in the past 1985-2015 years. As a public service, infrastructure can reduce operating costs and be sucked. An important factor in the inflow of foreign direct investment; (3) inflation has a significant negative impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period. The results show that high inflation in the country may reduce foreign investment levels in the country. While holding a fixed income, the operating cost should be reduced; (4) the exchange rate has a significant long-term impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment during the 1985-2015 year period in Indonesia. As the exchange rate will change in a relatively short period of time, the investors will consider the impact of the change of foreign exchange rate on the profitability of the company in the short term. Because of the effect of the exchange rate on the profitability of the company. Foreign investors in emerging markets and other emerging markets responded to the exchange rate, thus, in the short term, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period; (5) the openness of trade had a significant impact on the long-term and short-term FDI of Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period, This is mainly due to the higher export level, which reflects the increase in the global demand for domestic goods and services in Indonesia. High imports reflect the interest of foreign investors in Indonesia. From the positive and negative effects of FDI on economic growth, we can see that To conclude, the influence of foreign direct investment on economic growth is different between countries. However, it can be determined in the study how FDI affects ASEAN's economic growth. This, of course, depends on the economic conditions, technology and system of the ASEAN countries.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F831.6
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本文編號：1773009