發(fā)布時間：2018-01-30 19:33

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 數(shù)量型 價格型 政策轉(zhuǎn)型 利率市場化　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策作為運用最為廣泛的宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)節(jié)政策,對維持資本市場穩(wěn)定和促進國民經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展發(fā)揮著非常重要的作用。貨幣政策按照政策工具、中介目標和傳導機制的不同可分為數(shù)量型和價格型貨幣政策。所處經(jīng)濟時期不同所面臨的宏觀經(jīng)濟背景不同,不同類型的貨幣政策所產(chǎn)生的調(diào)節(jié)效果也不同,因此貨幣政策調(diào)節(jié)工具的選擇應(yīng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境相適應(yīng)。現(xiàn)階段我國經(jīng)濟正處于轉(zhuǎn)折的關(guān)鍵時期,宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境與過去相比也出現(xiàn)了許多新情況。就目前來看,我國對外貿(mào)易順差不斷擴大由此導致外匯儲備大幅增長以及流動性嚴重過剩問題;加之金融領(lǐng)域影子銀行規(guī)模的不斷擴大、金融脫媒的日益發(fā)展,都使得貨幣政策實施面臨的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境發(fā)生了變化,因此研究現(xiàn)階段我國貨幣政策調(diào)節(jié)作用是否有效以及探討貨幣政策是否需要轉(zhuǎn)型是十分必要的。首先從理論方面分析數(shù)量型貨幣政策和價格型貨幣政策在目前宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下傳導機制的有效性和對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的實際調(diào)節(jié)作用。由于金融市場不斷完善等導致數(shù)量型貨幣政策對貨幣供應(yīng)量中介目標的可測性和可控性不斷降低,因此其效果的發(fā)揮受到限制;同時利率市場化以及金融創(chuàng)新的不斷發(fā)展,價格型貨幣政策代表性工具——利率的作用不斷增大。進一步從實證方面對比分析兩類貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟的實際調(diào)節(jié)效果,構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型,進行脈沖響應(yīng)與方差分解分析,就我國常用的存款準備金率工具與利率工具在控制廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量、治理通貨膨脹、促進經(jīng)濟增長三個方面的貨幣政策效果進行對比分析,實證結(jié)果表明利率工具的調(diào)控效果優(yōu)于法定存款準備金率的調(diào)控效果。但是由于我國的利率市場化尚未完成、基準利率體系不完善、資本項目并未完全放開以及投融資體制的制約使得我國貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)型過程中面臨很多困難。最后針對我國由數(shù)量型向價格型貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)型過程中遇到的困難,具體提出我國貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)型的對策建議。對我國貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)型進行分析,從理論和實證兩個層面找出轉(zhuǎn)型的必要性,針對目前宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境,對我國貨幣政策實現(xiàn)成功轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要的理論和實際指導意義。
[Abstract]:As the most widely used macroeconomic adjustment policy, monetary policy plays a very important role in maintaining the stability of capital market and promoting the healthy development of national economy. Different intermediary targets and transmission mechanisms can be divided into quantitative and price-oriented monetary policies. Different economic periods are faced with different macroeconomic backgrounds, and different types of monetary policies have different regulatory effects. Therefore, the choice of monetary policy adjustment tools should be adapted to the macroeconomic environment. At this stage, China's economy is in a critical period of transition, the macroeconomic environment compared with the past has also appeared a lot of new situations. The continuous expansion of China's foreign trade surplus leads to a large increase in foreign exchange reserves and a serious problem of excess liquidity. In addition, the continuous expansion of the scale of shadow banking in the financial field and the growing development of financial disintermediation have changed the economic environment facing the implementation of monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to study whether monetary policy is effective or not and whether monetary policy needs to be transformed at the present stage. First of all, it is necessary to analyze the quantitative monetary policy and price monetary policy from the theoretical point of view. The effectiveness of transmission mechanism in the economic environment and its regulating effect on economic development. As a result of the continuous improvement of financial market, the measurability and controllability of quantitative monetary policy to the intermediary target of money supply are decreasing. . Therefore, the exertion of its effect is restricted; At the same time, the interest rate marketization and the continuous development of financial innovation. The role of interest rate, the representative tool of price monetary policy, is increasing. Further, the paper analyzes the actual adjustment effect of two kinds of monetary policy from the empirical aspect, and constructs the vector autoregressive model. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis are carried out to control the broad money supply and control inflation. The effects of monetary policy in three aspects of promoting economic growth are compared and analyzed. The empirical results show that the regulatory effect of interest rate instruments is better than the regulatory effect of legal reserve ratio. However, the interest rate marketization has not been completed in China, and the benchmark interest rate system is not perfect. The capital account has not been completely liberalized and the restriction of investment and financing system has made China face a lot of difficulties in the process of monetary policy transformation. This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the transformation of monetary policy in China, analyzes the transformation of monetary policy in China, and finds out the necessity of the transformation from the theoretical and empirical aspects, aiming at the current macroeconomic environment. It has important theoretical and practical guiding significance for the successful transformation of monetary policy in China.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F823.13

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