【摘要】：本文基于143個(gè)國(guó)家1983~2012年的動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化、金融杠桿和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明:(1)城鎮(zhèn)化和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間呈現(xiàn)出顯著的"倒U型"關(guān)系,當(dāng)城鎮(zhèn)化率達(dá)到60%~63%時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能出現(xiàn)拐點(diǎn);(2)在城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中,金融杠桿水平過(guò)低或過(guò)高都會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響;而當(dāng)金融杠桿位于合理水平時(shí),則會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)作用;(3)根據(jù)拐點(diǎn)區(qū)間的平均值和上限,并根據(jù)最近5年中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化率的年均增速推算,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)很可能在2019~2021年進(jìn)入拐點(diǎn)區(qū)域�；谏鲜鼋Y(jié)論,中國(guó)應(yīng)科學(xué)看待城鎮(zhèn)化推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的客觀規(guī)律,同時(shí)前瞻性地加強(qiáng)金融杠桿的動(dòng)態(tài)管理,盡可能爭(zhēng)取在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)"拐點(diǎn)"到來(lái)之前完成經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)和金融深化改革,用新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)和穩(wěn)健的金融體系來(lái)抵御可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Based on the dynamic panel data of 143 countries from 1983 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between urbanization, financial leverage and economic growth. The results show that: (1) there is a significant "inverted U-shaped" relationship between urbanization and economic growth, and when the urbanization rate reaches 60% 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：2526995