【摘要】：隨著農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展,化肥、農(nóng)藥、機(jī)械設(shè)備等在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的使用規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,多數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品在生產(chǎn)過程中也具有了能源密集性的特點(diǎn)。眾所周知,自二戰(zhàn)以來,石油已然超越煤炭成為全球第一大能源。而我國(guó)在緩增長(zhǎng)、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下,石油供給缺口不斷增大,能源對(duì)外依存度持續(xù)高于50%的警戒線,且呈現(xiàn)逐年增加的態(tài)勢(shì)。因此,國(guó)際能源價(jià)格與我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的聯(lián)系日益緊密。國(guó)際能源價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)引發(fā)了我國(guó)對(duì)糧食安全問題的擔(dān)憂以及糧食安全應(yīng)對(duì)策略的討論。本文分別對(duì)石油價(jià)格的變動(dòng)狀況、糧食價(jià)格的變動(dòng)狀況、不同大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的變動(dòng)狀況進(jìn)行了現(xiàn)狀分析;對(duì)國(guó)際能源價(jià)格對(duì)我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的影響機(jī)理,從成本驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)和供求驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)兩方面進(jìn)行了理論分析。繼而通過實(shí)證分析確認(rèn)國(guó)際能源價(jià)格和我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)性,并將國(guó)際能源價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的影響進(jìn)行量化。首先,利用DCC-MGARCH模型,從整體上對(duì)國(guó)際能源價(jià)格和我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果支持兩者之間總體相關(guān)性十分顯著的結(jié)論。具體到各個(gè)糧食,除秈稻、粳稻外,大豆、小麥、玉米等主要糧食作物都與國(guó)際石油價(jià)格都存在顯著的正向相關(guān)性。其次,利用VECM模型分別從長(zhǎng)期影響和短期影響兩方面對(duì)國(guó)際能源價(jià)格對(duì)我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的影響進(jìn)行了分析。從長(zhǎng)期影響上來說,國(guó)際能源價(jià)格變動(dòng)與我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,具有顯著的正向相關(guān)性;從短期影響上來說,誤差修正項(xiàng)對(duì)于偏離長(zhǎng)期均衡的短期波動(dòng)價(jià)格能夠起到調(diào)整作用。綜上所述,國(guó)際能源價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格的影響顯著。根據(jù)對(duì)石油價(jià)格變動(dòng)的趨勢(shì)分析,預(yù)測(cè)糧食價(jià)格的未來走勢(shì),從而提前采取相應(yīng)措施應(yīng)對(duì)能源價(jià)格波動(dòng)可能對(duì)我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格所產(chǎn)生的影響,這對(duì)于保障我國(guó)中長(zhǎng)期糧食安全問題具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of agricultural modernization, the scale of use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, machinery and equipment in agricultural production has been continuously expanded, and most agricultural products also have the characteristics of energy intensity in the process of production. It is well known that since World War II, oil has surpassed coal as the world's largest energy source. However, under the economic background of slow growth and adjustment of structure, the gap of oil supply is increasing constantly, and the dependence of energy on the outside world is higher than 50%, and the situation is increasing year by year. Therefore, international energy prices and China's grain prices are increasingly closely linked. The sharp fluctuation of the international energy price has caused our country to worry about the food security problem and the discussion of the food security countermeasures. This paper analyzes the current situation of oil price, grain price and the price of different major agricultural products respectively, and analyzes the current situation of the change of oil price, grain price and the price of different agricultural products. The influence mechanism of international energy price on China's grain price is analyzed theoretically from two aspects: cost-driven effect and supply-demand-driven effect. Then through the empirical analysis to confirm the international energy price and our country grain price inherent correlation, and carries on the quantification to the international energy price change to our country grain price influence. Firstly, the DCC-MGARCH model is used to analyze the relationship between the international energy price and the grain price in China. The empirical results support the conclusion that the correlation between the two is very significant. Specific to each grain, except indica rice, japonica rice, soybean, wheat, corn and other major food crops have a significant positive correlation with the international oil price. Secondly, VECM model is used to analyze the influence of international energy price on China's grain price from two aspects: long-term impact and short-term impact. As far as the long-term impact is concerned, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the change of international energy price and China's grain price, which has a significant positive correlation. In terms of short-term effect, the error correction term can adjust the short-term fluctuation price which deviates from the long-term equilibrium. To sum up, the change of international energy prices has a significant impact on China's grain prices. According to the trend analysis of oil price movement, forecast the future trend of grain price, so as to take corresponding measures in advance to deal with the possible impact of energy price fluctuation on China's grain price, This is of great practical significance to the protection of medium-and long-term food security in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.11;F206

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本文編號(hào)：2438633