【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,能源與環(huán)境的矛盾日益突出,霧霾天氣成為民生關(guān)注最熱門的話題,區(qū)域的可持續(xù)發(fā)展也越來(lái)越受到社會(huì)各界的重視。一直以來(lái),能源是人類社會(huì)賴以生存和發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),然而能源保障卻為環(huán)境承載力的保持帶來(lái)極大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),造成生態(tài)環(huán)境問(wèn)題的愈加嚴(yán)峻,與群眾的環(huán)境期望相違背。為了滿足區(qū)域的發(fā)展和居民環(huán)境需求,能源與環(huán)境的安全性都必須得到保障,從而為地區(qū)提供一個(gè)穩(wěn)定高質(zhì)量的發(fā)展環(huán)境。大連市既作為東北老工業(yè)基地重要城市,又定位于旅游城市,在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)受到能源環(huán)境問(wèn)題的制約越加嚴(yán)重,其實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)于區(qū)域的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有十分重要的意義。因此,以研究大連市能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為重點(diǎn),探討能源保障為生態(tài)環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來(lái)?yè)p失的可能性,從而為區(qū)域發(fā)展提供管理決策依據(jù)。根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)外專家相關(guān)的研究經(jīng)驗(yàn)與分析,本文首先提出了能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究思路。在大連市能流圖分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從節(jié)能減排的角度識(shí)別出能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子,從而構(gòu)建出能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。然后以定量和定性分析在主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)中引入外界干擾系數(shù),對(duì)歷史的能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)分析,并以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)為目的構(gòu)建支持向量回歸(Support Vector Regression,SVR)模型,利用模型對(duì)未來(lái)的綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行情景模擬,同時(shí)結(jié)合居民的環(huán)境滿意度實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的分析。最后根據(jù)情景模擬結(jié)果,為大連地區(qū)提出相關(guān)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展策略,從而為能源部門提供一定的管理決策依據(jù),實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)家節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)。本文結(jié)合能源保障與綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)大連市發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行分析,能夠創(chuàng)新能源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論,推動(dòng)綠色理念的傳播,促進(jìn)能源與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。通過(guò)對(duì)大連市能源保障綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)測(cè),動(dòng)態(tài)反映出大連市不同發(fā)展模式下的綠色風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化情況及關(guān)鍵影響因素,從而為大連市能源與環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展管理提供正確的方向,具有重要的理論研究?jī)r(jià)值以及實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, the contradiction between energy and environment has become increasingly prominent. Haze weather has become the most popular topic of people's livelihood, and the sustainable development of the region has been paid more and more attention by all walks of life. Energy has always been an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society. However, energy security has brought great risks to the maintenance of environmental carrying capacity, resulting in more and more serious ecological environmental problems, which are contrary to the environmental expectations of the masses. In order to meet the regional development and residents' environmental needs, the security of energy and environment must be guaranteed, so as to provide a stable and high-quality development environment for the region. Dalian is not only an important city of northeast old industrial base, but also a tourist city, which is restricted by energy and environment problems while economic development. Its practical experience is of great significance to the sustainable development of the region. Therefore, by studying the green risk of energy security in Dalian, this paper discusses the possibility that energy security will bring losses to the sustainable development of ecological environment, thus providing the basis for management and decision making for regional development. Based on the experience and analysis of experts at home and abroad, this paper first puts forward the research ideas of green risk of energy security. Based on the analysis of energy flow map in Dalian, the green risk factors of energy security are identified from the angle of energy saving and emission reduction, and the evaluation index system of green risk of energy security is constructed. Then the external interference coefficient is introduced into the principal component analysis (Principal Component Analysis,PCA) by quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the historical green risk of energy security is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed, and the support vector regression (Support Vector Regression, is constructed for the purpose of risk prediction. SVR) model, using the model to simulate the future green risk, at the same time, combining the residents' environmental satisfaction to realize the analysis of the risk prediction results. Finally, according to the result of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the relevant sustainable development strategy for Dalian area, thus provides certain management decision basis for the energy sector, realizes the national energy saving and emission reduction target. Based on the analysis of energy security and green risk, this paper can innovate the theory of energy risk management, promote the spread of green idea, and promote the coordinated development of energy and environment. Based on the evaluation and prediction of green risk of energy security in Dalian, the change of green risk and key influencing factors in different development modes of Dalian are dynamically reflected. Therefore, it provides the correct direction for the sustainable development management of energy and environment in Dalian, and has important theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F206

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本文編號(hào)：2392261