【摘要】：2014年的中央經(jīng)濟會議強調(diào)了城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化同步發(fā)展的重要性。城鎮(zhèn)化是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要引擎,是實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化的必由之路,城鎮(zhèn)化脫離不了“三農(nóng)”問題——農(nóng)民、農(nóng)村和農(nóng)業(yè),而農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化正是解決“三農(nóng)”問題的著力點。因此,深入了解安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化之間的相互關(guān)系,使之協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,構(gòu)成了當前安徽省經(jīng)濟持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定增長的必然要求。文章首先依據(jù)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學(xué)、經(jīng)濟地理學(xué)中的相關(guān)知識作為理論依據(jù),闡述分析了農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化之間的作用機制,為全文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。然后對安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化、城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及兩者的關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀進行了統(tǒng)計描述。隨后是對安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化關(guān)系的實證分析,具體包括三個部分:第一部分,運用協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗測度兩者間的長期均衡關(guān)系和因果關(guān)系。第二部分,運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法,從定量的角度測定農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化之間作用因素的關(guān)聯(lián)性強弱,找出與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化和城鎮(zhèn)化關(guān)聯(lián)度大的作用因素。第三部分,基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析的結(jié)果,嘗試從關(guān)聯(lián)度大的各個因素著手分析研究安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展呈負相關(guān)的原因。最后,為政府部門在制定推進兩者同步發(fā)展的政策上提供有針對性的建議,以促進安徽省經(jīng)濟更好、更持續(xù)的發(fā)展。文章得出以下主要結(jié)論:其一,安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化滯后于城鎮(zhèn)化。其二,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,前期城鎮(zhèn)化是農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的格蘭杰原因,到了后期農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化是城鎮(zhèn)化的格蘭杰原因。兩者表現(xiàn)出相互抑制的關(guān)系。其三,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化對城鎮(zhèn)化的作用機制中,作用因素與城鎮(zhèn)化的關(guān)聯(lián)程度都很強,關(guān)聯(lián)程度從強到弱依次是:提供勞動力、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給、提高農(nóng)民收入、土地供給;城鎮(zhèn)化對農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的作用機制中,作用因素與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的關(guān)聯(lián)程度也很強,關(guān)聯(lián)程度從強到弱依次是:提高農(nóng)民素質(zhì)、技術(shù)支持、土地供給、財政支持。其四,農(nóng)業(yè)勞動生產(chǎn)率低加之城鎮(zhèn)對農(nóng)村勞動力的拉動力不足;農(nóng)業(yè)勞動生產(chǎn)率低,糧食產(chǎn)量的供給滯后于城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展;農(nóng)民收入低、購買力低,使得城鎮(zhèn)化擴大內(nèi)需的潛力未能釋放出來;農(nóng)民受教育程度普遍偏低;農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新能力不足,科技的支撐力有限;耕地質(zhì)量差等是致使安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與城鎮(zhèn)化相互抑制的原因。最后根據(jù)實證分析的結(jié)果,提出相應(yīng)建議。
[Abstract]:The 2014 Central Economic Conference stressed the importance of the simultaneous development of urbanization and agricultural modernization. Urbanization is the important engine of our country's economic development and the only way to realize modernization. Urbanization can not break away from the "three rural" problems-farmers, rural areas and agriculture. Agricultural modernization is the key point to solve the problem of "agriculture, countryside and farmers". Therefore, a deeper understanding of the relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province and its coordinated development constitute the inevitable requirement of sustained and stable economic growth in Anhui Province at present. Based on the relevant knowledge of development economics and economic geography, this paper expounds and analyzes the mechanism of action between agricultural modernization and urbanization, which lays a theoretical foundation for the full text. Then the agricultural modernization of Anhui Province, urbanization and the current situation of the relationship between the statistical description. Then the empirical analysis of the relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province, including three parts: the first part, the use of co-integration test, Granger causality test measure the long-term equilibrium and causality between the two. In the second part, we use the grey correlation analysis method to determine the correlation between agricultural modernization and urbanization from a quantitative point of view, and find out the factors that have a strong correlation with agricultural modernization and urbanization. The third part, based on the results of grey correlation analysis, attempts to analyze and study the reasons of negative correlation between agricultural modernization and urbanization development in Anhui Province. Finally, it provides some suggestions for government departments to make policies to promote the simultaneous development of the two, in order to promote the better and more sustainable development of Anhui's economy. The main conclusions are as follows: first, agricultural modernization in Anhui Province lags behind urbanization. Secondly, there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization. Urbanization is the Granger cause of agricultural modernization in the early stage and Granger cause of urbanization in the later stage. The two show a mutually restrained relationship. Thirdly, in the action mechanism of agricultural modernization on urbanization, the correlation degree between agricultural modernization and urbanization is very strong, the degree of relevance from strong to weak is: to provide labor force, supply of agricultural products, increase farmers' income, land supply; In the mechanism of urbanization on agricultural modernization, the degree of correlation between urbanization and agricultural modernization is also very strong, and the degree of relevance from strong to weak is: improving farmers' quality, technical support, land supply and financial support. Fourth, the low productivity of agricultural labor and the lack of urban power to the rural labor force, the low productivity of agricultural labor, the supply of grain output lags behind the development of urbanization; The low income and low purchasing power of farmers make it impossible to release the potential of urbanization to expand domestic demand, the education level of farmers is generally low, the ability of agricultural technological innovation is insufficient, and the support of science and technology is limited. The poor quality of cultivated land is the cause of mutual restraint between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F327;F299.27

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