本文選題：潮涌現(xiàn)象 + 產(chǎn)能過剩�。� 參考：《財(cái)經(jīng)研究》2016年06期

【摘要】：投資潮涌和產(chǎn)能過剩是發(fā)展中國家在快速結(jié)構(gòu)變遷過程中出現(xiàn)的重要現(xiàn)象。基于新結(jié)構(gòu)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的視角,通過剖析該現(xiàn)象文章構(gòu)建了一個(gè)最優(yōu)政府干預(yù)程度理論:首先,由于處于前沿內(nèi)部,發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的結(jié)構(gòu)變遷具有后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì);其次,后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)所蘊(yùn)含的發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)具有社會(huì)共識(shí)但信息不完全,從而會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)自身出現(xiàn)協(xié)調(diào)困難,進(jìn)而使得市場(chǎng)主體面臨投資潮涌而導(dǎo)致虧損的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),從而對(duì)發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)謹(jǐn)小慎微;最后,市場(chǎng)的謹(jǐn)小慎微則會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)的利用不足,政府會(huì)實(shí)施積極的發(fā)展政策組合對(duì)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格、成本與利潤進(jìn)行干預(yù),以增強(qiáng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)的激勵(lì)和放松約束,其結(jié)果雖然能使得發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)得到更充分的利用,但與此同時(shí)也會(huì)導(dǎo)致更加嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)能過剩。據(jù)此理論,文章主張發(fā)展政策不能夠因噎廢食,理性的做法是利害權(quán)衡,把握好最優(yōu)的干預(yù)程度。
[Abstract]:Investment surge and overcapacity are important phenomena in the process of rapid structural change in developing countries. Based on the perspective of new structural economics, this paper constructs a theory of optimal degree of government intervention by analyzing the phenomenon: firstly, the structural changes of developing economies have the advantage of latecomer due to being within the frontier; secondly, The development opportunity contained in the advantage of late development has social consensus but incomplete information, which will lead to the difficulty of coordination in the market itself, and make the main body of the market face the risk of investment surge and lead to loss, thus being cautious about the development opportunity; Finally, market caution can lead to underutilization of development opportunities, and the government will implement an active development policy mix to intervene in market prices, costs and profits in order to enhance incentives and relax constraints on the market. The result is that development opportunities can be used more fully, but at the same time lead to greater overcapacity. Based on this theory, the paper argues that development policy should not be abandoned for choking, the rational approach is to weigh interests and grasp the optimal degree of intervention.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)新結(jié)構(gòu)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中心;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項(xiàng)目(15CJL025) 中國博士后科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(2015M580898)
【分類號(hào)】：F123.16

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