本文選題：德格魯特模型 + 社會學(xué)習(xí)　； 參考：《管理評論》2016年07期

【摘要】：本文以德格魯特的社會影響模型為基礎(chǔ),建立了一個社會學(xué)習(xí)的價(jià)格預(yù)期形成機(jī)制模型,并結(jié)合復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)模擬,探討了三種社會影響結(jié)構(gòu)矩陣下價(jià)格預(yù)期形成的收斂性、共識性、收斂速度、準(zhǔn)確度和各主體的影響力。在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步模擬分析了央行公信度下降造成的影響和央行引導(dǎo)預(yù)期的有效性問題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):價(jià)格預(yù)期多數(shù)情況下都能夠收斂并達(dá)成共識,但在預(yù)期收斂速度和準(zhǔn)確度上存在差異;央行的公信度下降,會造成社會預(yù)期收斂的速度變慢和預(yù)期誤差大的不良影響;通過引導(dǎo)機(jī)構(gòu)或公眾的預(yù)期可以在不同程度上提高央行的影響力和社會預(yù)期的準(zhǔn)確度。
[Abstract]:Based on de Gruder's social impact model, this paper establishes a model of price expectation formation mechanism for social learning, and discusses the convergence of price expectation formation under three kinds of social impact structure matrix combined with complex adaptive system simulation. Consensus, speed of convergence, accuracy and influence of each subject. On this basis, the impact of the decline of the central bank's credibility and the effectiveness of the central bank's guidance expectations are further simulated and analyzed. The study found that price expectations can converge and reach consensus in most cases, but there are differences in the speed and accuracy of expected convergence, and the credibility of the central bank declines. It can lead to the slow convergence of social expectations and the negative impact of large expected errors; by guiding the expectations of institutions or the public, the influence of central banks and the accuracy of social expectations can be improved to varying degrees.
【作者單位】： 海南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71463012) 海南自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(20167250) 海南大學(xué)中西部計(jì)劃學(xué)科重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域建設(shè)項(xiàng)目(ZXBJH-XK021);海南大學(xué)青年基金項(xiàng)目(qnjj1410)
【分類號】：F822.0;F224

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