本文選題：城市化 + 能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度��； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在當(dāng)前國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)新形勢(shì)下,傳統(tǒng)的城市化發(fā)展方式弊端日益凸顯。我國(guó)尚處在城市化快速推進(jìn)的重要階段,隨著能源供需矛盾加劇、碳減排壓力與日俱增,走一條新型的城市化發(fā)展道路是控制能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度、減少碳排放的必然選擇。在這樣的背景下,厘清城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度的影響效應(yīng),對(duì)于我國(guó)未來(lái)城市化發(fā)展的道路選擇以及節(jié)能減排的政策制定具有重要的借鑒意義。首先,基于城市化的內(nèi)涵,從人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的多維視角界定了城市化的概念,并進(jìn)一步分析了我國(guó)城市化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,其次從規(guī)模、強(qiáng)度和結(jié)構(gòu)的視角描述了我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度的影響路徑。基于這一影響路徑,實(shí)證研究了我國(guó)城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度的影響效應(yīng)。在全國(guó)層面上,分別利用嶺回歸模型和狀態(tài)空間模型對(duì)城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度的整體影響效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析,包括長(zhǎng)期影響效應(yīng)(協(xié)調(diào)性)分析和時(shí)變效應(yīng)(動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)性)分析兩個(gè)部分。在區(qū)域差異層面上,利用固定效應(yīng)面板模型比較研究了城市化影響能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度的東中西地區(qū)差異;基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù),利用Hansen門(mén)檻面板模型驗(yàn)證了城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度影響的非對(duì)稱(chēng)性,并基于這一特征分析了城市化對(duì)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度影響的省際差異。主要的研究結(jié)論如下:(1)通過(guò)分析城市化對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度的長(zhǎng)期影響效應(yīng)得知:1978-2012年,我國(guó)的城市化進(jìn)程與能源消費(fèi)二者整體上并不協(xié)調(diào)。城市化的外延式發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)的協(xié)調(diào)性較差,相比之下,城市化的內(nèi)涵式發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)較為協(xié)調(diào)。(2)通過(guò)分析我國(guó)城市化對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度的時(shí)變效應(yīng)得出結(jié)論:城市化的外延式發(fā)展和規(guī)模擴(kuò)張,雖然以消耗一定的能源為代價(jià),同時(shí)也伴隨著能源利用效率的提升。而城市化的內(nèi)涵式發(fā)展和結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換,在改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的絕大部分時(shí)間里都較好地發(fā)揮了控制能源強(qiáng)度的效果,并且隨著時(shí)間推移,這一節(jié)能效果還在不斷強(qiáng)化。(3)城市化進(jìn)程中的人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)因素對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度的影響均存在非對(duì)稱(chēng)性:從人口視角來(lái)看,人口規(guī)模的適度增加有助于降低能源強(qiáng)度,人口結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的節(jié)能效果隨著第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人員占總就業(yè)人員比重的增加而增強(qiáng);從經(jīng)濟(jì)視角來(lái)看,經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模過(guò)小或者過(guò)大都不合適,適度的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模最有利于能源強(qiáng)度的控制;從經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)看,當(dāng)?shù)谌a(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的比重達(dá)到47.12%以上時(shí),對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度的抑制作用最顯著。從社會(huì)視角來(lái)看,當(dāng)前我國(guó)絕大部分省份的居民收入偏低,居民消費(fèi)能力不足,導(dǎo)致對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度抑制不力;消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中食品支出占比偏高時(shí)不利于控制能源強(qiáng)度。最后,基于實(shí)證分析的結(jié)論和我國(guó)具體國(guó)情,從全國(guó)層面和區(qū)域差異的層面提出了可供參考的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Under the current international and domestic new situation, the malpractice of the traditional urbanization development mode is increasingly prominent. China is still in an important stage of rapid urbanization. With the intensification of energy supply and demand the pressure of carbon emission reduction is increasing. It is an inevitable choice to control energy consumption intensity and reduce carbon emissions to take a new road of urbanization. Under this background, it is of great significance to clarify the effect of urbanization on the intensity of energy consumption for the future development of urbanization in China, as well as the policy formulation of energy saving and emission reduction. Firstly, based on the connotation of urbanization, this paper defines the concept of urbanization from the perspective of population, economy and society, and further analyzes the present situation of urbanization in China. The current situation of energy consumption in China is described from the perspective of intensity and structure, and the influence of urbanization on energy consumption intensity is analyzed. Based on this influence path, this paper empirically studies the effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity in China. At the national level, ridge regression model and state space model are used to analyze the overall effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity. It includes two parts: long-term effect (coordination) analysis and time-varying effect (dynamic correlation) analysis. At the level of regional difference, using the fixed effect panel model, the paper compares the differences between East and West regions that urbanization affects the intensity of energy consumption, based on inter-provincial panel data, The Hansen threshold panel model is used to verify the asymmetry of the effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity, and based on this feature, the provincial differences of urbanization on energy consumption intensity are analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) by analyzing the long-term effect of urbanization on energy intensity, we know that from 1978 to 2012, the urbanization process and energy consumption in China are not in harmony. The coordination between the epitaxial development of urbanization and energy consumption is poor, in contrast, Based on the analysis of the time-varying effect of urbanization on energy intensity in China, it is concluded that the extension development and scale expansion of urbanization are at the cost of consuming certain energy. At the same time, it is accompanied by the improvement of energy efficiency. However, the implicit development and structural transformation of urbanization have played a better role in controlling energy intensity for most of the time since the reform and opening up, and over time, This energy-saving effect is also being strengthened. (3) the effects of population, economic and social factors on energy intensity in the process of urbanization are asymmetrical: from a demographic perspective, a moderate increase in population size helps to reduce energy intensity. The energy-saving effects of population restructuring have increased with the increase in the proportion of employed persons in the tertiary industry; from an economic point of view, the economic scale is too small or too large. The moderate economic scale is the most favorable to the control of energy intensity, and from the economic structure, when the proportion of tertiary industry output value to GDP reaches 47.12%, the inhibition effect of energy intensity is the most significant. From the social point of view, the majority of provinces in our country have low income and insufficient consumption capacity, which leads to the weak suppression of energy intensity; food expenditure is not conducive to controlling energy intensity when the proportion of food expenditure is on the high side in the consumption structure. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis and the specific situation of our country, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the national level and regional difference level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.21;F206

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