本文選題：貨幣中性 + 貨幣非中性　； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著市場經(jīng)濟體制的不斷發(fā)展完善,貨幣政策工具被政府廣泛使用,以調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,而貨幣政策的有效性問題日益凸顯。貨幣中性與非中性是貨幣政策有效性的基本前提,貨幣經(jīng)濟學(xué)關(guān)于貨幣中性與非中性問題一直是討論的焦點話題之一,至今仍然沒有明確的結(jié)論,基于此背景,有必要對中國的貨幣性質(zhì)問題進行深入的研究。本文采用規(guī)范分析與實證分析相結(jié)合的方法,首先從迄今為止的研究成果入手,對貨幣中性與非中性問題的經(jīng)典理論進行闡述,梳理和總結(jié)各派學(xué)者對貨幣中性與非中性問題的觀點,并概括出影響貨幣中性與非中性的原因包括經(jīng)濟均衡狀態(tài)、價格粘性、公眾預(yù)期、經(jīng)濟金融發(fā)展環(huán)境等,提出本文判斷貨幣中性與非中性的理論分析框架。然后對中國自1998年以來的貨幣政策實施效果進行回顧,并對1998年以來,貨幣供給量、產(chǎn)出水平和價格水平三個因素的增長率進行對比,分析得出:自1998年以來,貨幣供給量M2與產(chǎn)出水平的變化幅度基本一致,而價格水平的變化幅度較小,且滯后于M2的變化,貨幣呈非中性狀態(tài),價格粘性仍然存在,增加或減少貨幣供給量會給產(chǎn)出帶來相應(yīng)變化,而價格水平不會明顯受其影響而波動,貨幣政策可以得到有效傳導(dǎo)。第四章對中國短期內(nèi)的貨幣性質(zhì)進行實證分析,利用2008年以來貨幣供給量、產(chǎn)出水平、價格水平三個指標的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行實證研究,通過VAR模型分析貨幣供給量對產(chǎn)出水平和價格水平的影響程度,結(jié)果表明自2008年以來,貨幣是非中性的且貨幣政策有效,然而隨著金融市場的不斷發(fā)展,貨幣越來越多地流向金融市場,貨幣供給對于產(chǎn)出的作用程度正在逐漸減弱。最后,本文根據(jù)實證分析的結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)政策建議,在短期內(nèi)政府使用貨幣政策刺激經(jīng)濟的增長有效,另外需要有效引導(dǎo)公眾預(yù)期,同時深化金融結(jié)構(gòu)改革,防止資產(chǎn)泡沫風險。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development and perfection of market economy system, monetary policy tools are widely used by the government to regulate economic development, and the effectiveness of monetary policy becomes increasingly prominent. Monetary neutrality and non-neutrality are the basic premise of the effectiveness of monetary policy. Monetary economics has always been one of the focuses of discussion on monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, and there is still no clear conclusion, which is based on this background. It is necessary to study the monetary nature of China in depth. By combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, this paper begins with the research results so far, and expounds the classical theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality. This paper summarizes the views of scholars on the issues of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, and summarizes the reasons that affect monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, including economic equilibrium, price stickiness, public expectations, economic and financial development environment, etc. This paper proposes a theoretical analysis framework for judging monetary neutrality and non-neutrality. Then it reviews the effect of monetary policy implementation in China since 1998, and compares the growth rate of money supply, output level and price level since 1998. The change range of money supply M2 and output level is basically the same, while the change of price level is small, and lags behind M2 change, currency is non-neutral, price stickiness still exists. Increasing or decreasing the money supply will bring the corresponding change to the output, but the price level will not fluctuate obviously, so the monetary policy can be effectively transmitted. The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the monetary nature of China in the short term, using the quarterly data of money supply, output level and price level since 2008 to carry out empirical research. The influence of money supply on output level and price level is analyzed by VAR model. The results show that money is non-neutral and monetary policy is effective since 2008. However, with the development of financial market, More and more money flows to financial markets, and the role of money supply on output is weakening. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. In the short term, the government should use monetary policy to stimulate economic growth effectively. In addition, it is necessary to effectively guide public expectations and deepen the reform of the financial structure. Prevent asset bubble risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F224

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本文編號：1868917