本文選題：投資沖擊 + 通貨膨脹—緊縮交替��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟問題探索》2016年04期

【摘要】：1992年投資沖擊和2008年"四萬億投資"沖擊分別導致了接下來的通貨膨脹-緊縮交替。BVAR模型脈沖響應函數(shù)發(fā)現(xiàn),投資沖擊發(fā)生后,2-3年,將發(fā)生通貨膨脹,而第4年開始,轉(zhuǎn)為通貨緊縮。前后兩次投資沖擊的制度背景不同,前者是計劃經(jīng)濟向市場經(jīng)濟過渡時期;后者是較完善的市場經(jīng)濟時期;投資主體不同,前者是地方性國有企業(yè)和村、鎮(zhèn)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè);后者是政府以基礎設施投資為目的的融資平臺公司和大型國有企業(yè);形成機理不同,前者主要是投資沖擊導致的供給短缺造成的,后者微觀主體的預期發(fā)揮更重要的作用;影響程度不同:前者通脹更嚴重,后者緊縮更嚴重。人民幣匯率適度貶值,以促進出口;推進大型國有企業(yè)改革,以化解中上游行業(yè)過剩產(chǎn)能;降低利率和準備金率,以促進內(nèi)需和降低企業(yè)融資成本。"三位一體"的政策體系,將幫助中國經(jīng)濟擺脫目前的通縮,走向內(nèi)生驅(qū)動的良性發(fā)展之路。
[Abstract]:The investment shock in 1992 and the "4 trillion investment" shock in 2008 led to the following inflation-contraction alternating. BVAR model impulse response function respectively. It was found that the investment shock occurred 2-3 years after, inflation would occur, and the fourth year would begin. Turn to deflation. The former is a period of transition from planned economy to market economy, the latter is a more perfect period of market economy, the former is a local state-owned enterprise, and the former is a town and township enterprise. The latter is a financing platform company and a large state-owned enterprise whose purpose is to invest in infrastructure, the formation mechanism is different, the former is mainly caused by the shortage of supply caused by the investment shock, the latter plays a more important role in the expectation of the micro subject. The impact is different: the former inflation is more severe, the latter tightening is more severe. "the renminbi is depreciating moderately to boost exports; to promote reform of large state-owned enterprises to address excess capacity in the upper and middle reaches; and to reduce interest rates and reserve requirements to boost domestic demand and reduce corporate financing costs." The Trinity policy system will help the Chinese economy get rid of the current deflation and move towards an endogenous and benign development path.
【作者單位】： 上海立信會計學院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金項目“中國結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹的解釋:財政分權(quán)和信貸配給下的理論與實證”(11YJC90160),項目負責人:孫力軍
【分類號】：F822.5;F224
，

本文編號：1798788