本文選題：居民房價預期 + 購房需求　； 參考：《統(tǒng)計研究》2016年05期

【摘要】：許多研究表明房價變動難以被經(jīng)濟基本面因素完全解釋。市場參與者對房價的預期被認為是影響房價變動的重要因素;在土地供給缺乏彈性的情況下,居民的房價預期對房價的影響更加顯著。本文利用2012—2013年中國7個重點城市開展的"中國城鎮(zhèn)居民房價預期與購房行為專項調(diào)查"的季度數(shù)據(jù)對居民房價預期影響房價變動的內(nèi)在經(jīng)濟機制進行了實證研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),居民對房價的預期會顯著影響其購房需求,從而影響未來房價的變化,本城市內(nèi)居民對房價的預期水平每提高1個百分點,下一期房價增長率相應提高1.04%。本文利用微觀數(shù)據(jù)和宏觀數(shù)據(jù)的聯(lián)合分析有效緩解了可能的內(nèi)生性問題,研究結(jié)論對于理解房價波動和宏觀調(diào)控工具的有效性具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Many studies have shown that house price movements are difficult to fully explain by economic fundamentals.Market participants' expectation of house price is considered to be an important factor influencing the change of house price. In the case of lack of elasticity of land supply, residents' expectation of house price has a more significant effect on house price.This paper makes an empirical study on the internal economic mechanism of housing price expectation and house price change by using the quarterly data of "the Special Survey of Housing Price expectation and purchase behavior of Urban residents in China" carried out in seven key cities of China in 2012-2013.It is found that the expectation of housing price will significantly affect the demand for housing purchase and the change of house price in the future. For every 1 percentage point increase in the expected level of housing price, the next housing price growth rate will be increased by 1.04% in the next period.This paper makes use of the combination analysis of micro data and macro data to alleviate the possible endogenous problem effectively. The conclusion is of great significance for understanding the fluctuation of house prices and the effectiveness of macro-control tools.
【作者單位】： 暨南大學經(jīng)濟與社會研究院;清華大學建設管理系;清華大學恒隆房地產(chǎn)研究中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金面上項目“地方公共品影響住房市場的微觀機制:城市空間中的靜態(tài)和動態(tài)研究”(71273154) 國家優(yōu)秀青年基金項目“城市增長機制與管理研究”(71322307)的資助
【分類號】：F299.23
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本文編號：1738165