本文選題：能源　切入點(diǎn)：Logistic模型　出處：《中國(guó)管理科學(xué)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：在當(dāng)前全球面臨的能源危機(jī)日益嚴(yán)重的大背景下,節(jié)能問(wèn)題受到世界各國(guó)的廣泛關(guān)注和重視,為探索高效的節(jié)能政策,本文根據(jù)陜西省實(shí)際情況,以2012年為基期,以2013-2030年為預(yù)測(cè)期利用Logistic、ARIMA等數(shù)學(xué)模型對(duì)陜西省未來(lái)的人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),通過(guò)相關(guān)計(jì)算完成了未來(lái)陜西省能源需求量預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)陜西省的能源需求量進(jìn)行了影響因素分析,最后基于上述計(jì)算分析結(jié)果為陜西省未來(lái)的能源戰(zhàn)略提出了建議:①保持經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口適度增長(zhǎng);②優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),降低工業(yè)部門(mén)GDP占比;③實(shí)行技術(shù)改革及行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,降低工業(yè)部門(mén)能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the increasingly serious global energy crisis, the problem of energy conservation has received extensive attention and attention from all over the world. In order to explore efficient energy-saving policies, this paper, according to the actual situation in Shaanxi Province, takes 2012 as the base period.Taking 2013-2030 as the forecast period, the future population and economic development of Shaanxi Province are forecasted by using logistic Arima and other mathematical models, and the energy demand forecast of Shaanxi Province in the future is completed by correlation calculation.Finally, based on the results of the above calculation and analysis, the author puts forward some suggestions for the future energy strategy of Shaanxi Province, that is, keeping economy and optimizing the industrial structure with moderate population growth.To reduce the proportion of GDP in the industrial sector and implement technological reform and industrial structure adjustment, and reduce the intensity of energy consumption in the industrial sector.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)熱流科學(xué)與工程教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室能源與動(dòng)力工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重大資助項(xiàng)目(41590855)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F426.2
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本文編號(hào)：1706730