本文選題：能源　切入點：Logistic模型　出處：《中國管理科學(xué)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：在當前全球面臨的能源危機日益嚴重的大背景下,節(jié)能問題受到世界各國的廣泛關(guān)注和重視,為探索高效的節(jié)能政策,本文根據(jù)陜西省實際情況,以2012年為基期,以2013-2030年為預(yù)測期利用Logistic、ARIMA等數(shù)學(xué)模型對陜西省未來的人口、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情況進行了預(yù)測,通過相關(guān)計算完成了未來陜西省能源需求量預(yù)測,并對陜西省的能源需求量進行了影響因素分析,最后基于上述計算分析結(jié)果為陜西省未來的能源戰(zhàn)略提出了建議:①保持經(jīng)濟、人口適度增長;②優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),降低工業(yè)部門GDP占比;③實行技術(shù)改革及行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,降低工業(yè)部門能源消費強度。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the increasingly serious global energy crisis, the problem of energy conservation has received extensive attention and attention from all over the world. In order to explore efficient energy-saving policies, this paper, according to the actual situation in Shaanxi Province, takes 2012 as the base period.Taking 2013-2030 as the forecast period, the future population and economic development of Shaanxi Province are forecasted by using logistic Arima and other mathematical models, and the energy demand forecast of Shaanxi Province in the future is completed by correlation calculation.Finally, based on the results of the above calculation and analysis, the author puts forward some suggestions for the future energy strategy of Shaanxi Province, that is, keeping economy and optimizing the industrial structure with moderate population growth.To reduce the proportion of GDP in the industrial sector and implement technological reform and industrial structure adjustment, and reduce the intensity of energy consumption in the industrial sector.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)熱流科學(xué)與工程教育部重點實驗室能源與動力工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金重大資助項目(41590855)
【分類號】：F224;F426.2
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本文編號：1706730