本文關鍵詞：“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經濟波動、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

引用本文:王桂虎.“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經濟波動、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率——基于脈沖響應分析的實證研究[J].首都經濟貿易大學學報,2015,17(1):3-10[]

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“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經濟波動、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率——基于脈沖響應分析的實證研究

王桂虎

(中國社會科學院經濟研究所)

摘要:

    “新常態(tài)”背景下，GDP增速下滑是大概率事件，宏觀經濟波動將不可避免。梳理中國宏觀經濟的各種因素與企業(yè)家信心、失業(yè)率，探討三者之間的脈沖響應關系，發(fā)現(xiàn)：企業(yè)家信心會在一定程度上對失業(yè)率產生影響；利率波動對企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率的沖擊最為顯著，而企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率對于房價的沖擊最為明顯；GDP增速的波動對企業(yè)家信心的沖擊具有顯著的正向關系，對于失業(yè)率的沖擊具有顯著的負向關系；“新常態(tài)”背景下宏觀經濟波動存在潛在風險。

關鍵詞:  “新常態(tài)”  宏觀經濟波動  企業(yè)家信心  失業(yè)率

DOI：

投稿時間：2014-10-20  

基金項目:

The Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Entrepreneur Confidence and Unemployment Rate in the Context of “The New Normal”

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Abstract:

    The decline of the GDP growth rate is of big probability and the macroeconomic fluctuation will be inevitable in the context of “the New Normal”. By combing a variety factors of the Chinense macroeconomy，the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate, the paper applies the vector auto regression model to analyze their dynamic relationship on the base of the annual data. It finds that: the entrepreneur confidence affects the unemployment rate on a certain extent; the interest rate fluctuations on the impact of entrepreneurial confidence and unemployment rate is the most significant, and the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate on the impact of house price is the most obvious; the GDP growth rate fluctuations has significantly positive relationship with the impact of entrepreneur confidence, while it has significant negative relationship with the unemployment rate; there exits potential risk in the period of “the New Normal”.

Key words:  “the New Normal”  macroeconomic fluctuation  the confidence of entrepreneurs  the unemployment rate

  本文關鍵詞：“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經濟波動、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。