本文關(guān)鍵詞：“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

引用本文:王桂虎.“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率——基于脈沖響應(yīng)分析的實(shí)證研究[J].首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào),2015,17(1):3-10[]

[]

      【下載PDF全文】   【查看/發(fā)表評(píng)論】  【下載PDF閱讀器】  

←前一篇|后一篇→ 過(guò)刊瀏覽    高級(jí)檢索

本文已被：瀏覽 450次   下載 179次

“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率——基于脈沖響應(yīng)分析的實(shí)證研究

王桂虎

(中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所)

摘要:

    “新常態(tài)”背景下，GDP增速下滑是大概率事件，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)將不可避免。梳理中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的各種因素與企業(yè)家信心、失業(yè)率，探討三者之間的脈沖響應(yīng)關(guān)系，發(fā)現(xiàn)：企業(yè)家信心會(huì)在一定程度上對(duì)失業(yè)率產(chǎn)生影響；利率波動(dòng)對(duì)企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率的沖擊最為顯著，而企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率對(duì)于房?jī)r(jià)的沖擊最為明顯；GDP增速的波動(dòng)對(duì)企業(yè)家信心的沖擊具有顯著的正向關(guān)系，對(duì)于失業(yè)率的沖擊具有顯著的負(fù)向關(guān)系；“新常態(tài)”背景下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)存在潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

關(guān)鍵詞:  “新常態(tài)”  宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)  企業(yè)家信心  失業(yè)率

DOI：

投稿時(shí)間：2014-10-20  

基金項(xiàng)目:

The Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Entrepreneur Confidence and Unemployment Rate in the Context of “The New Normal”

()

Abstract:

    The decline of the GDP growth rate is of big probability and the macroeconomic fluctuation will be inevitable in the context of “the New Normal”. By combing a variety factors of the Chinense macroeconomy，the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate, the paper applies the vector auto regression model to analyze their dynamic relationship on the base of the annual data. It finds that: the entrepreneur confidence affects the unemployment rate on a certain extent; the interest rate fluctuations on the impact of entrepreneurial confidence and unemployment rate is the most significant, and the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate on the impact of house price is the most obvious; the GDP growth rate fluctuations has significantly positive relationship with the impact of entrepreneur confidence, while it has significant negative relationship with the unemployment rate; there exits potential risk in the period of “the New Normal”.

Key words:  “the New Normal”  macroeconomic fluctuation  the confidence of entrepreneurs  the unemployment rate

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：“新常態(tài)”下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、企業(yè)家信心和失業(yè)率，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。