【摘要】：“十二五”綱要中提到,把支持服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展作為未來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展首要戰(zhàn)略目標。可見,服務(wù)業(yè)在我國未來的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中逐漸展現(xiàn)出新的亮點。它在拉動經(jīng)濟增長、提供就業(yè)平臺、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面都發(fā)揮出了積極的效應(yīng)。盡管服務(wù)業(yè)在國內(nèi)發(fā)展勢頭迅猛,但與發(fā)達國家相比還存在較大的差距,并且在發(fā)展過程中也還存在著一些問題�，F(xiàn)行的稅收政策本身存在著一些缺陷,在一定程度上阻礙服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。 基于上述背景,本文首先分析稅收政策對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的理論基礎(chǔ),明確文章研究的對象為支持服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的稅收政策。通過實證分析法,論證各主要稅種與服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的相關(guān)性,通過格蘭杰檢驗得出在第1期和第5期營業(yè)稅稅收政策與服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的成單向的因果關(guān)系,其他稅種與服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展無因果關(guān)系。協(xié)整檢驗的結(jié)果為增值稅、營業(yè)稅、所得稅與服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出一種長期均衡關(guān)系。進一步對VAR模型進行脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解,得出營業(yè)稅稅收政策的變動在前五期對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展表現(xiàn)出負向影響,且影響效果較為顯著,總過程看,正負相抵后產(chǎn)生正向影響。而增值稅和所得稅稅收政策的變動在前幾期對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展表現(xiàn)為正向影響,長期來看,所得稅稅收政策對服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)生正向影響,增值稅的影響不確定。同時,方差分解的結(jié)果說明營業(yè)稅和所得稅對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的貢獻最高,最低的是增值稅。闡述我國服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀后,根據(jù)內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論構(gòu)建多元回歸模型,回歸結(jié)果為稅收負擔率每增加1個點,服務(wù)業(yè)增長率相應(yīng)的要減少0.75個點。此外,從方程式中還能得到,稅收結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整對服務(wù)業(yè)增長率的變動有積極的影響,但影響效果非常小,稅收結(jié)構(gòu)變動1個點時,服務(wù)業(yè)增長率僅增加0.014個點。然后分析我國現(xiàn)行服務(wù)業(yè)相關(guān)的稅收政策,并指出現(xiàn)行稅收政策存在的問題。最后,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出完善服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的稅收政策建議,建議的內(nèi)容涉及到法律法規(guī)的完善、三大稅種的政策完善、不同類型服務(wù)業(yè)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:It is mentioned in the 12th five-year Plan that supporting the development of service industry is the primary strategic goal of future economic development. It can be seen that the service industry gradually shows a new bright spot in the future economic development of our country. It has played a positive role in stimulating economic growth, providing employment platform, optimizing industrial structure and so on. Although the service industry is developing rapidly in China, there is still a big gap compared with the developed countries, and there are still some problems in the process of development. The current tax policy itself has some defects, to a certain extent, hinders the development of the service industry. Based on the above background, this paper first analyzes the theoretical basis of tax policy for the development of service industry, and makes it clear that the object of this paper is the tax policy to support the development of service industry. Through empirical analysis, this paper demonstrates the correlation between the main taxes and the development of the service industry, and obtains the one-way causality between the business tax policy and the development of the service industry in the first and fifth phases of the business tax policy, but there is no causal relationship between the other taxes and the development of the service industry. The results of co-integration test show a long-term equilibrium relationship between value-added tax, business tax, income tax and the development of service industry. Furthermore, the impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR model are carried out, and it is concluded that the change of business tax policy has a negative impact on the development of service industry in the first five periods, and the effect is more significant. In the overall process, the positive and negative offset has a positive impact. In the past few periods, the changes of value-added tax and income tax policy have a positive impact on the development of the service industry. In the long run, the income tax policy has a positive impact on the service industry, and the impact of value-added tax is uncertain. At the same time, the results of variance decomposition show that the contribution of business tax and income tax to the development of service industry is the highest, and the lowest is value-added tax. After expounding the present situation of the development of service industry in China, a multiple regression model is constructed according to the theory of endogenous economic growth. The regression result is that for every increase of tax burden rate, the growth rate of service industry should be reduced by 0.75 points. In addition, it can be obtained from the equation that the adjustment of tax structure has a positive impact on the growth rate of service industry, but the effect is very small. When the tax structure changes one point, the growth rate of service industry increases by only 0.014 points. Then it analyzes the current tax policy of service industry in China, and points out the problems existing in the current tax policy. Finally, on this basis, the paper puts forward the tax policy suggestions to improve the development of the service industry, which involves the improvement of laws and regulations, the improvement of the policies of the three major tax categories, and the policy suggestions of different types of service industries.
【學位授予單位】：廣西大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.42;F719

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 胡笑輝，王陸進;從稅收調(diào)節(jié)的主要內(nèi)容看稅收調(diào)節(jié)的局限性[J];財經(jīng)論叢(浙江財經(jīng)學院學報);1995年03期

2 李冠霖,任旺兵;用科學發(fā)展觀推進服務(wù)業(yè)全面發(fā)展[J];宏觀經(jīng)濟管理;2004年10期

3 李小熱;夏杰長;;中國服務(wù)業(yè)稅收的企業(yè)類型結(jié)構(gòu)研究[J];經(jīng)濟與管理;2009年11期

4 夏杰長;;我國服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的實證分析與財稅政策選擇[J];經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2007年02期

5 華而誠;論服務(wù)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的戰(zhàn)略性地位[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2001年12期

6 雷學勤,夏仕平;稅收政策調(diào)整滯后對經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響[J];理論月刊;2000年Z1期

7 ;中國國際稅收研究會2010年調(diào)研課題[J];涉外稅務(wù);2010年02期

8 沈彤;;充分發(fā)揮稅收在促進服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展中的作用[J];稅務(wù)研究;2007年08期

9 趙蓓;陳賀菁;;服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展與財稅政策運用[J];稅務(wù)研究;2008年05期

10 葉莊欽;;促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整的稅收政策研究[J];亞太經(jīng)濟;2006年01期

，

本文編號：2510345