發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-18 00:47

【摘要】：服務(wù)業(yè)景氣監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警，是對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)進(jìn)行總體的、綜合的、全面的、系統(tǒng)的分析與判斷，是對(duì)表征服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)過程和現(xiàn)狀的一系列指標(biāo)進(jìn)行的監(jiān)督和量測(cè)，從監(jiān)測(cè)結(jié)果出發(fā)，根據(jù)過程規(guī)律性的認(rèn)識(shí)，對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)未來可能發(fā)生的轉(zhuǎn)折和重大變化提出警報(bào)，是利用一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)建立起來的服務(wù)業(yè)“晴雨表”或“報(bào)警器”。它是運(yùn)用理論分析方法、經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析方法、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法等對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)循環(huán)波動(dòng)這一特定現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行一整套經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)測(cè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)的體系。對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警，可以清楚地發(fā)現(xiàn)服務(wù)業(yè)各層面發(fā)生的變化，洞悉服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生的轉(zhuǎn)變，引導(dǎo)投資者理性投資，并有利于政府及時(shí)采取穩(wěn)定政策促進(jìn)服務(wù)業(yè)平穩(wěn)、快速發(fā)展，因此在實(shí)踐上意義重大。 本文將景氣指數(shù)、預(yù)警信號(hào)燈系統(tǒng)兩者結(jié)合起來，在理論分析與實(shí)際應(yīng)用相結(jié)合的基礎(chǔ)上，闡述了景氣指標(biāo)的分類、選擇、預(yù)處理方法。用時(shí)差相關(guān)分析法、峰谷對(duì)應(yīng)方法并結(jié)合格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)綜合分析劃分了先行、一致、滯后三類景氣指標(biāo)，用因子分析法計(jì)算了每類指標(biāo)中各單指標(biāo)所占的權(quán)重大小后，介紹反映景氣變動(dòng)強(qiáng)弱的合成指數(shù)(CI)作用以及編制方法。然后建立預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，劃分指標(biāo)的臨界值，用一組類似交通信號(hào)燈將每個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)各預(yù)警指標(biāo)所處狀態(tài)表示出來，并用數(shù)學(xué)方法將單指標(biāo)合成綜合的預(yù)警指數(shù)。 最后，本文以我國為例對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)景氣監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)作了實(shí)證研究，對(duì)我國服務(wù)業(yè)景氣進(jìn)行綜合判斷與趨勢(shì)判斷。針對(duì)國際金融危機(jī)會(huì)對(duì)我國服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的滯后影響，作者提出今后應(yīng)在服務(wù)業(yè)的勞動(dòng)力投入和資本投入、服務(wù)業(yè)職工素質(zhì)和工資制度、居民可支配收入和服務(wù)消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)等方面采取積極措施，促進(jìn)我國服務(wù)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The service industry boom monitoring and warning is an overall, comprehensive, comprehensive and systematic analysis and judgment of the service industry. It is the supervision and measurement of a series of indicators that characterize the process and current situation of economic activities in the service industry. Starting from the monitoring results, According to the understanding of the process regularity, it is a "barometer" or "alarm device" for the service industry to set up a barometer or an alarm for the possible turning point and major changes in the economic activities of the service industry in the future, which is based on a series of economic indicators. It is a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation system using theoretical analysis method, empirical analysis method, mathematical statistical method and so on, to carry on a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation to this particular phenomenon of service industry cycle fluctuation. Monitoring and early warning of the service industry can clearly find the changes that have taken place at all levels of the service industry, insight into the changes that have taken place in the economic structure of the service industry, guide investors to invest rationally, and help the government to adopt a stable policy in time to promote the stability of the service industry. Rapid development, so in practice is of great significance. Based on the combination of theory analysis and practical application, this paper expounds the classification, selection and pretreatment method of boom index. By means of time-difference correlation analysis, peak-valley correspondence method and Granger causality test, three types of boom indexes are classified: first, consistent and lagging, and the weight of each single index is calculated by factor analysis. This paper introduces the effect of composite index (CI), which reflects the strength of climate change, and the method of compiling it. Then the early warning index system is established, the critical value of the index is divided, the state of each early warning index in each period is expressed by a set of similar traffic signal lights, and the comprehensive early warning index is synthesized by mathematical method. Finally, this paper takes our country as an example to make an empirical study on the service industry boom monitoring and warning system, and makes a comprehensive judgment and trend judgment on the service industry boom in our country. In view of the lagging impact of the international financial crisis on the development of China's service industry, the author suggests that the labor and capital investment in the service industry, the quality of service workers and the wage system should be put forward in the future. Positive measures should be taken to promote the healthy development of service industry in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F719;F224

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