【摘要】：服務業(yè)景氣監(jiān)測預警，是對服務業(yè)進行總體的、綜合的、全面的、系統(tǒng)的分析與判斷，是對表征服務業(yè)經濟活動過程和現狀的一系列指標進行的監(jiān)督和量測，從監(jiān)測結果出發(fā)，根據過程規(guī)律性的認識，對服務業(yè)經濟活動未來可能發(fā)生的轉折和重大變化提出警報，是利用一系列經濟指標建立起來的服務業(yè)“晴雨表”或“報警器”。它是運用理論分析方法、經驗分析方法、數理統(tǒng)計方法等對服務業(yè)循環(huán)波動這一特定現象進行一整套經濟監(jiān)測、經濟評價的體系。對服務業(yè)進行監(jiān)測預警，可以清楚地發(fā)現服務業(yè)各層面發(fā)生的變化，洞悉服務業(yè)經濟結構發(fā)生的轉變，引導投資者理性投資，并有利于政府及時采取穩(wěn)定政策促進服務業(yè)平穩(wěn)、快速發(fā)展，因此在實踐上意義重大。 本文將景氣指數、預警信號燈系統(tǒng)兩者結合起來，在理論分析與實際應用相結合的基礎上，闡述了景氣指標的分類、選擇、預處理方法。用時差相關分析法、峰谷對應方法并結合格蘭杰因果關系檢驗綜合分析劃分了先行、一致、滯后三類景氣指標，用因子分析法計算了每類指標中各單指標所占的權重大小后，介紹反映景氣變動強弱的合成指數(CI)作用以及編制方法。然后建立預警指標體系，劃分指標的臨界值，用一組類似交通信號燈將每個時期內各預警指標所處狀態(tài)表示出來，并用數學方法將單指標合成綜合的預警指數。 最后，本文以我國為例對服務業(yè)景氣監(jiān)測預警系統(tǒng)作了實證研究，對我國服務業(yè)景氣進行綜合判斷與趨勢判斷。針對國際金融危機會對我國服務業(yè)發(fā)展的滯后影響，作者提出今后應在服務業(yè)的勞動力投入和資本投入、服務業(yè)職工素質和工資制度、居民可支配收入和服務消費增長等方面采取積極措施，促進我國服務業(yè)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The service industry boom monitoring and warning is an overall, comprehensive, comprehensive and systematic analysis and judgment of the service industry. It is the supervision and measurement of a series of indicators that characterize the process and current situation of economic activities in the service industry. Starting from the monitoring results, According to the understanding of the process regularity, it is a "barometer" or "alarm device" for the service industry to set up a barometer or an alarm for the possible turning point and major changes in the economic activities of the service industry in the future, which is based on a series of economic indicators. It is a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation system using theoretical analysis method, empirical analysis method, mathematical statistical method and so on, to carry on a set of economic monitoring and economic evaluation to this particular phenomenon of service industry cycle fluctuation. Monitoring and early warning of the service industry can clearly find the changes that have taken place at all levels of the service industry, insight into the changes that have taken place in the economic structure of the service industry, guide investors to invest rationally, and help the government to adopt a stable policy in time to promote the stability of the service industry. Rapid development, so in practice is of great significance. Based on the combination of theory analysis and practical application, this paper expounds the classification, selection and pretreatment method of boom index. By means of time-difference correlation analysis, peak-valley correspondence method and Granger causality test, three types of boom indexes are classified: first, consistent and lagging, and the weight of each single index is calculated by factor analysis. This paper introduces the effect of composite index (CI), which reflects the strength of climate change, and the method of compiling it. Then the early warning index system is established, the critical value of the index is divided, the state of each early warning index in each period is expressed by a set of similar traffic signal lights, and the comprehensive early warning index is synthesized by mathematical method. Finally, this paper takes our country as an example to make an empirical study on the service industry boom monitoring and warning system, and makes a comprehensive judgment and trend judgment on the service industry boom in our country. In view of the lagging impact of the international financial crisis on the development of China's service industry, the author suggests that the labor and capital investment in the service industry, the quality of service workers and the wage system should be put forward in the future. Positive measures should be taken to promote the healthy development of service industry in China.
【學位授予單位】：河北經貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F719;F224

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