【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段，，我國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展依然強(qiáng)勁，在很大程度上促進(jìn)酒店行業(yè)繼續(xù)發(fā)展；同時(shí)，國家近年來鼓勵(lì)并引導(dǎo)民間資本進(jìn)入酒店等旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，酒店行業(yè)資本的資本空前活躍，更多民間資本的進(jìn)入定將帶來酒店行業(yè)的繁榮；酒店類上市公司作為我國酒店行業(yè)的杰出代表，經(jīng)過多年發(fā)展，已初具規(guī)模與影響力，成為證券市場上獨(dú)具特色的板塊。由此可見，深入研究酒店類上市公司這一獨(dú)特的經(jīng)濟(jì)組織不僅十分必要，且具有顯著的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義�；诖耍疚募匆跃频觐惿鲜泄镜慕�(jīng)營活動(dòng)為研究對象，針對其特殊性，引入系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的理論與方法，進(jìn)行了卓有成效的研究，主要研究成果包括以下兩個(gè)方面： 首先，構(gòu)建起合理的酒店類上市公司經(jīng)營系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。在充分研究現(xiàn)有相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，并通過咨詢酒店學(xué)術(shù)研究及實(shí)踐專家，根據(jù)酒店經(jīng)營管理活動(dòng)的特點(diǎn)，構(gòu)建起了較為全面、合理的酒店類上市公司經(jīng)營系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，模型由人力資源子系統(tǒng)、固定資產(chǎn)子系統(tǒng)、盈利能力子系統(tǒng)、償債能力子系統(tǒng)、營運(yùn)能力子系統(tǒng)與成長能力子系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成，包括了酒店人力資源管理、固定資產(chǎn)管理及財(cái)務(wù)管理等主要經(jīng)營管理內(nèi)容。同時(shí)，總結(jié)出各子系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵影響變量，明確了變量之間的相互關(guān)系。引入系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)在一定程度上是酒店類上市公司研究領(lǐng)域的理論創(chuàng)新。 其次，成功運(yùn)用所建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型實(shí)現(xiàn)了華天經(jīng)營管理活動(dòng)的預(yù)測。模型構(gòu)建完成后，以華天為例，針對性地確定了模型中的常量、表函數(shù)等變量，即解決了模型應(yīng)用于具體企業(yè)的適應(yīng)性問題，為模型仿真奠定基礎(chǔ)。然后運(yùn)用Vensim軟件模擬得到華天2011-2015年的仿真預(yù)測值，經(jīng)檢測，模型運(yùn)行效果良好，仿真預(yù)測結(jié)果擬合度好，模擬結(jié)果可信度高，可通過相關(guān)具體變量的分析來判斷公司未來的經(jīng)營情況，為經(jīng)營、信貸、投資等決策提供合理參考。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明，通過針對不同公司改變模型中的部分變量值，可實(shí)現(xiàn)對不同酒店類上市公司的經(jīng)營預(yù)測，達(dá)到本研究的實(shí)踐意義，既可以幫助經(jīng)營管理者更好地決策以實(shí)現(xiàn)公司發(fā)展目標(biāo)，也可為債權(quán)人、投資者、股民、政府等利益相關(guān)方的決策提供參考。
[Abstract]:At present, China's tourism industry is still strong, to a large extent, promoting the continued development of the hotel industry; At the same time, in recent years, the country encourages and guides the folk capital to enter the tourist economic domain such as the hotel, the capital of the hotel industry is unprecedented active, more folk capital will surely bring the prosperity of the hotel industry; As an outstanding representative of hotel industry in China, hotel listed companies have begun to take shape and influence after years of development, and have become a unique plate in the securities market. It can be seen that it is not only necessary to study the hotel listed company as a unique economic organization, but also has significant theoretical and practical significance. Based on this, this paper takes the management activities of hotel listed companies as the research object, aiming at its particularity, introduces the theory and method of system dynamics, and carries on the fruitful research. The main research results include the following two aspects: first, build a reasonable hotel listed company management system dynamics model. On the basis of fully studying the existing related research results, and consulting the hotel academic research and practice experts, according to the characteristics of hotel management activities, a more comprehensive construction, The model is composed of human resource subsystem, fixed assets subsystem, profitability subsystem, solvency subsystem, operating capacity subsystem and growth ability subsystem. Including hotel human resources management, fixed asset management and financial management and other main management content. At the same time, the key influence variables of each subsystem are summarized, and the relationship between the variables is clarified. The introduction of system dynamics is, to some extent, a theoretical innovation in the field of hotel listed companies. Secondly, the prediction of Huatian operation and management activity is realized by using the system dynamics model successfully. Taking Huatian as an example, the variables such as constants and table functions in the model are determined, that is, the adaptability of the model to a specific enterprise is solved, which lays a foundation for model simulation. Then the simulation results of Huatian 2011-2015 are obtained by using Vensim software. The test results show that the model runs well, the simulation results fit well, and the simulation results are reliable. Through the analysis of relevant specific variables, we can judge the company's future operating situation and provide reasonable reference for the decision of management, credit, investment and so on. The results of empirical analysis show that by changing some variables of the model for different companies, we can realize the management prediction of different hotel listed companies, and achieve the practical significance of this study. It can not only help managers to make better decisions to achieve the development goals of the company, but also provide reference for creditors, investors, shareholders, government and other stakeholders.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.3;F719;N941.3

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