【摘要】：城市經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的研究表明,城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)生與發(fā)展是農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展、工業(yè)化以及第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的崛起這三大力量的推動(dòng),并且隨著城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的加深,這三大力量依次處于主導(dǎo)地位。城鎮(zhèn)化是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展過程中的一個(gè)不以人的意志為轉(zhuǎn)移的客觀規(guī)律,也是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化與升級(jí)在地域空間上的必然反映。 城鎮(zhèn)化是一個(gè)國(guó)家或區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平高低的標(biāo)志。世界范圍內(nèi)經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,工業(yè)是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的直接動(dòng)因,到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到一定階段,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)將取代工業(yè)成為城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的主要推動(dòng)力量。與此同時(shí),城鎮(zhèn)化也會(huì)對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生非常重要的影響,城鎮(zhèn)化是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的堅(jiān)強(qiáng)基石,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)是城鎮(zhèn)化的經(jīng)濟(jì)源泉和強(qiáng)大動(dòng)力。山東省的城鎮(zhèn)化水平目前正處于上升階段,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展步伐也正逐漸加快。因此,探明目前山東省城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,研究其城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,對(duì)于加快其城鎮(zhèn)化步伐,優(yōu)化第三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),進(jìn)而促進(jìn)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速健康發(fā)展都有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文基于城鎮(zhèn)化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系理論,分析了城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的相互作用關(guān)系,并對(duì)山東省的城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)程和它們的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了具體描述和分析。采用1981-2010年之間的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、回歸分析和格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)等方法從時(shí)間角度研究城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,得出山東省城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)存在長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,并且具有顯著地長(zhǎng)期雙向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；選取適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)間截面,從空間的角度對(duì)山東省城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,得出其城鎮(zhèn)化水平和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重呈同方向變動(dòng)；運(yùn)用灰關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法研究城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各層次之間的關(guān)系,具體分析山東省內(nèi)部各地區(qū)的城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)發(fā)展關(guān)系。最后為山東省城鎮(zhèn)化和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)發(fā)展提供具體的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:The study of urban economic theory shows that the emergence and development of urbanization is promoted by the three forces of agricultural development, industrialization and the rise of the tertiary industry, and with the deepening of urbanization, these three forces are in the leading position in turn. Urbanization is an objective law in the process of economic and social development that does not shift with the will of human beings, and it is also an inevitable reflection of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the regional space. Urbanization is a symbol of the level of economic development of a country or region. The experience in the world shows that industry is the direct driving force of urbanization. To a certain stage, tertiary industry will replace industry as the main driving force of urbanization development. At the same time, urbanization will also have a very important impact on the tertiary industry. Urbanization is the strong foundation stone of the development of the tertiary industry, and the tertiary industry is the economic source and powerful driving force of urbanization. The level of urbanization in Shandong Province is now on the rise, and the pace of development of the tertiary industry is also gradually accelerating. Therefore, to find out the current development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, to study the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry, to accelerate the pace of urbanization and optimize the structure of tertiary industry, And then promote the rapid and healthy development of the tertiary industry has very important practical significance. Based on the interactive relation theory of urbanization and industrial structure evolution, this paper analyzes the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry, and analyzes the process of urbanization in Shandong Province. The development process of tertiary industry and their development status are described and analyzed in detail. By using the relevant data from 1981 to 2010, using cointegration test, regression analysis and Granger test, the paper studies the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry from the perspective of time. It is concluded that there is a long-term stable relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, and there is a significant long-term two-way Granger causality. From the perspective of space, this paper analyzes the interaction between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province, and finds out that the urbanization level and the proportion of tertiary industry output value are changing in the same direction. The relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry is studied by using the method of grey correlation analysis, and the interactive development relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong province is analyzed in detail. Finally, it provides specific countermeasures and suggestions for the interactive development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F719;F299.21

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