我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)勞動(dòng)力需求預(yù)測
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-17 08:56
【摘要】：十八大報(bào)告提出全面建成小康社會(huì)的宏偉目標(biāo)，在我國已跨入上中等收入國家行列和工業(yè)化中期偏后階段，要轉(zhuǎn)變過去粗放型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式，使經(jīng)濟(jì)增長更多地依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步和創(chuàng)新來實(shí)現(xiàn)。近年來，隨著我國生產(chǎn)要素成本不斷上升，外需逐步收縮，國內(nèi)產(chǎn)能出現(xiàn)過剩，國內(nèi)需求結(jié)構(gòu)正在發(fā)生變化，以及資源和生態(tài)環(huán)境狀況難以支撐現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等現(xiàn)象的發(fā)生，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)壓力加大，還面臨發(fā)達(dá)國家和貧困國家的雙重競爭壓力，一方面在那些技術(shù)變化較快的產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域很難同作為創(chuàng)新者的發(fā)達(dá)國家競爭，另一方面在傳統(tǒng)成熟產(chǎn)業(yè)與作為競爭對(duì)手的低工資水平的貧困國家也喪失了比較優(yōu)勢，增長動(dòng)力不足，面臨“中等收入陷阱”的挑戰(zhàn)；而隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)，，我國又出現(xiàn)了高增長與低就業(yè)并存、就業(yè)難與用工荒并存的就業(yè)領(lǐng)域的怪象。解決這些問題的關(guān)鍵在于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，從經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的歷史來看，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)有著重要的地位：第三產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)系統(tǒng)的重要環(huán)節(jié)，與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)相互制約、相互促進(jìn)；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分，能夠促進(jìn)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和容納較多的就業(yè)人員；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)還是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的導(dǎo)向系統(tǒng)，對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶有明顯導(dǎo)向性。可見，大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)是優(yōu)化我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式、提升第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重、緩解就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾、實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級(jí)化的重要途徑，符合我國基本國情和發(fā)展階段性新特征。 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級(jí)的表現(xiàn)形式之一是產(chǎn)業(yè)高級(jí)化，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重升高是產(chǎn)業(yè)高級(jí)化的重要體現(xiàn)。我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重在一個(gè)低水平保持穩(wěn)定，自2001年以來一直在40%左右徘徊。我國要進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)必將大力發(fā)展。根據(jù)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重將不斷上升，并占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)了多元化的路線，向服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型不一定必然是在工業(yè)化過程完成以后。隨著分工專業(yè)化程度的加深，工業(yè)部門對(duì)服務(wù)活動(dòng)的中間需求不斷增加，直接促進(jìn)了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入快速發(fā)展階段。按照過去的發(fā)展方式，1978年到2011年間我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重增長速度年均達(dá)到10.9%，高于同時(shí)期國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值9.9%的增長率，即將形成第三產(chǎn)業(yè)打頭的產(chǎn)業(yè)格局。而因?yàn)槠浒l(fā)展基礎(chǔ)低等原因，我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展滯后于工業(yè)化發(fā)展的要求，總量依然不足，還存在內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展明顯不夠的現(xiàn)象。 結(jié)合我國和發(fā)達(dá)國家第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展歷程，我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)處于快速發(fā)展階段，因此建立基于羅吉斯締（Logistic）曲線的我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模型，并根據(jù)模型預(yù)測到2030年各主要年份我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重。第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重不斷提高，對(duì)勞動(dòng)力要求會(huì)逐漸提高；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)相比第一、二產(chǎn)業(yè)較強(qiáng)的吸納能力，要求勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量增多；現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展則要求勞動(dòng)力層次不斷提升。通過第三產(chǎn)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重影響的協(xié)整分析和Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，驗(yàn)證兩者之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系，故采用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)建立兩變量之間的回歸模型，并運(yùn)用前面預(yù)測的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重測算到2030年各主要年份需求的勞動(dòng)力。由第六次全國人口普查數(shù)據(jù)可知，我國勞動(dòng)力總量規(guī)模大，自然供給將在2015年左右達(dá)到峰值，受教育程度層次提升和勞動(dòng)力平均受教育年限增加。沿用已有研究對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供給趨勢預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)，與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)勞動(dòng)力的需求對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國勞動(dòng)力將出現(xiàn)缺口，并且缺口逐漸增大。 因此，面對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供給不足，勞動(dòng)力的供給與需求不相匹配，勞動(dòng)力配置缺乏市場調(diào)節(jié)和勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng)困難等問題，提高勞動(dòng)力的平均受教育年限，提升勞動(dòng)力的受教育層次，完善勞動(dòng)力市場，以及引導(dǎo)勞動(dòng)力合理流動(dòng)優(yōu)化配置是盤活現(xiàn)有勞動(dòng)力存量的主要方向。
[Abstract]:The report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC sets forth the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries and the post-middle stage of industrialization. We should change the extensive economic growth pattern in the past and make economic growth more dependent on technological progress and innovation. There is a gradual contraction of external demand, a surplus of domestic production capacity, changes in the domestic demand structure, and difficulties in supporting the existing industrial structure in terms of resources and ecological environment. The pressure for upgrading the industrial structure is increasing, as well as the dual competitive pressures of developed and poor countries. On the one hand, there are industries with rapid technological changes. It is difficult to compete with developed countries as innovators in the field. On the other hand, poor countries with low wages and traditional mature industries have also lost their comparative advantages and lack of growth momentum, facing the challenge of the "middle-income trap"; with the upgrading of industrial structure, China has witnessed high growth and low employment. The key to solving these problems lies in the tertiary industry. From the history of economic development, the tertiary industry has an important position: the tertiary industry is an important part of the national economic cycle system, and it restricts and promotes each other with the primary industry and the secondary industry; the tertiary industry is An important part of the national economy can promote the further development of the national economy and accommodate more employees; the tertiary industry is still the guiding system of the national economy, which has a clear guidance for the development of the national economy. The proportion, the important way to alleviate the structural contradiction of employment and realize the advanced industrial structure conforms to the basic national conditions and the new characteristics of the development stage.
One of the manifestations of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the advanced industry, and the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry is an important embodiment of the advanced industry. According to the international experience of the development of the tertiary industry, with the continuous development of the economy, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise and occupy a dominant position. The development of the tertiary industry shows a diversified line. The transition to a service economy is not necessarily after the completion of the industrialization process. According to the past development mode, the annual growth rate of the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in China reached 10.9% from 1978 to 2011, which was higher than the 9.9% growth rate of the GDP of the same period. The industrial pattern of the tertiary industry will soon be formed. For the reasons of its low development foundation, the development of China's tertiary industry lags behind the requirements of industrialization, the total amount is still insufficient, the internal structure is unreasonable, and the development of modern service industry is obviously insufficient.
Combined with the development process of tertiary industry in China and developed countries, the tertiary industry in China is in a rapid development stage. Therefore, a development model of tertiary industry in China based on Logistic curve is established. According to the model, the proportion of output value of tertiary industry in each major year in 2030 is predicted. Compared with the first industry, the second industry has a strong absorptive capacity, which requires an increase in the number of labor. The development of modern service industry requires a continuous improvement in the level of labor. Therefore, the regression model between the two variables is established by using time series data, and the proportion of tertiary industry output value forecasted is used to calculate the labor demand in each major year of 2030. According to the sixth national census data, the total labor force in China is large, and the natural supply will reach its peak around 2015. Based on the forecasting data of labor supply trend and the demand of labor force for the development of tertiary industry, it is found that there will be a gap in China's labor force, and the gap will gradually increase.
Therefore, in the face of the shortage of labor supply, the mismatch between labor supply and demand, the lack of market regulation and the difficulty of labor mobility in the allocation of labor force, it is necessary to revitalize the existing problems by increasing the average length of education of the labor force, raising the level of education of the labor force, improving the labor market, and guiding the rational flow and optimal allocation of labor force. The main direction of labor stock.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F249.21;F719
本文編號(hào)：2187113
[Abstract]:The report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC sets forth the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries and the post-middle stage of industrialization. We should change the extensive economic growth pattern in the past and make economic growth more dependent on technological progress and innovation. There is a gradual contraction of external demand, a surplus of domestic production capacity, changes in the domestic demand structure, and difficulties in supporting the existing industrial structure in terms of resources and ecological environment. The pressure for upgrading the industrial structure is increasing, as well as the dual competitive pressures of developed and poor countries. On the one hand, there are industries with rapid technological changes. It is difficult to compete with developed countries as innovators in the field. On the other hand, poor countries with low wages and traditional mature industries have also lost their comparative advantages and lack of growth momentum, facing the challenge of the "middle-income trap"; with the upgrading of industrial structure, China has witnessed high growth and low employment. The key to solving these problems lies in the tertiary industry. From the history of economic development, the tertiary industry has an important position: the tertiary industry is an important part of the national economic cycle system, and it restricts and promotes each other with the primary industry and the secondary industry; the tertiary industry is An important part of the national economy can promote the further development of the national economy and accommodate more employees; the tertiary industry is still the guiding system of the national economy, which has a clear guidance for the development of the national economy. The proportion, the important way to alleviate the structural contradiction of employment and realize the advanced industrial structure conforms to the basic national conditions and the new characteristics of the development stage.
One of the manifestations of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the advanced industry, and the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry is an important embodiment of the advanced industry. According to the international experience of the development of the tertiary industry, with the continuous development of the economy, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise and occupy a dominant position. The development of the tertiary industry shows a diversified line. The transition to a service economy is not necessarily after the completion of the industrialization process. According to the past development mode, the annual growth rate of the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in China reached 10.9% from 1978 to 2011, which was higher than the 9.9% growth rate of the GDP of the same period. The industrial pattern of the tertiary industry will soon be formed. For the reasons of its low development foundation, the development of China's tertiary industry lags behind the requirements of industrialization, the total amount is still insufficient, the internal structure is unreasonable, and the development of modern service industry is obviously insufficient.
Combined with the development process of tertiary industry in China and developed countries, the tertiary industry in China is in a rapid development stage. Therefore, a development model of tertiary industry in China based on Logistic curve is established. According to the model, the proportion of output value of tertiary industry in each major year in 2030 is predicted. Compared with the first industry, the second industry has a strong absorptive capacity, which requires an increase in the number of labor. The development of modern service industry requires a continuous improvement in the level of labor. Therefore, the regression model between the two variables is established by using time series data, and the proportion of tertiary industry output value forecasted is used to calculate the labor demand in each major year of 2030. According to the sixth national census data, the total labor force in China is large, and the natural supply will reach its peak around 2015. Based on the forecasting data of labor supply trend and the demand of labor force for the development of tertiary industry, it is found that there will be a gap in China's labor force, and the gap will gradually increase.
Therefore, in the face of the shortage of labor supply, the mismatch between labor supply and demand, the lack of market regulation and the difficulty of labor mobility in the allocation of labor force, it is necessary to revitalize the existing problems by increasing the average length of education of the labor force, raising the level of education of the labor force, improving the labor market, and guiding the rational flow and optimal allocation of labor force. The main direction of labor stock.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F249.21;F719
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