本文選題：第三產(chǎn)業(yè) + 多元統(tǒng)計回歸��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的快速增長，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要性日益顯著，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重越來越大。當(dāng)今一個國家或者地區(qū)現(xiàn)代化水平的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，通常借助第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值所占該國或者該地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的比重高低進行衡量。作為經(jīng)濟大省，河北省近年來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展迅速。不過，，目前河北省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)仍然不夠合理，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)所占河北省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的比重偏低，對河北省經(jīng)濟增長貢獻程度有限。研究河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和規(guī)律、找出影響河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的因素、逐步優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的制定以及推動第三產(chǎn)業(yè)進一步發(fā)展，有非常重要的意義。 本文通過對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)總量影響因素、河北省各地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的狀況研究，河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)變動三方面進行研究，對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)進行全面分析，找出影響河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的制約因素，并針對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展所面臨的具體困難提出相應(yīng)的對策與建議。首先，以1995-2009年河北省經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，收集相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)信息，通過建立多元回歸模型，對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素進行實證分析，得出人均收入水平、城市化率、對外貿(mào)易程度等因素與河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展程正相關(guān)關(guān)系，個人信息化程度與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。然后以2009年河北省各地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，運用因子分析方法對推動河北省各地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進行評價，找出各地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的優(yōu)勢與不足，根據(jù)因子得分，將城市分為生活水平推動型城市、人才（智力）推動型城市、外資推動型的城市以及政府推動型城市四種模式，并為各地區(qū)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展分別提出建議。最后，通過對河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與全國和其他省份進行比較，得出河北省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)不夠合理，傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)業(yè)比重偏高，新興服務(wù)業(yè)比重偏低的結(jié)論。文章最后針對河北省發(fā)展過程中面臨的困難并結(jié)合河北省的具體省情，為河北省進一步促進第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提出對策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy, the importance of the development of the tertiary industry is becoming increasingly prominent, and the proportion of the tertiary industry in China's gross domestic product (GDP) is increasing. Nowadays, the development of modernization level of a country or region is usually measured by the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry to the GDP of that country or region. As a major economic province, Hebei Province has developed rapidly in recent years. However, at present, the industrial structure of Hebei Province is still not reasonable, the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP of Hebei Province is low, and the contribution to the economic growth of Hebei Province is limited. To study the current situation and law of the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, to find out the factors that affect the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, and to gradually optimize the industrial structure. It is of great significance to formulate relevant industrial policies and promote the further development of tertiary industry in Hebei Province. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province through the study of the influencing factors of the total amount of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, the situation of the development of the tertiary industry in various regions of Hebei Province, and the changes in the internal structure of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province. This paper finds out the restrictive factors affecting the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions in view of the specific difficulties faced by the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province. First of all, based on the economic data of Hebei Province from 1995 to 2009, we collect the relevant industry information, through the establishment of multiple regression model, empirical analysis of the factors affecting the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, the level of per capita income, urbanization rate, The degree of foreign trade and other factors are positively related to the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, while the degree of personal information has a negative correlation with the development of the third industry. Then based on the relevant data of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province in 2009, using factor analysis method to evaluate the situation of promoting the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province, to find out the advantages and disadvantages of the development of the tertiary industry in each region. According to the factor score, the city can be divided into four types: the city of living standard, the city of talent (intelligence), the city of foreign capital and the city of government, and some suggestions are put forward for the development of service industry in different regions. Finally, by comparing the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province with the whole country and other provinces, the conclusion is drawn that the internal structure of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province is not reasonable, the proportion of traditional service industry is on the high side, and the proportion of emerging service industry is on the low side. In the end, aiming at the difficulties in the development of Hebei Province and considering the specific situation of Hebei Province, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for further promoting the development of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F719

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