本文關鍵詞：中國服務業(yè)增長與能源消費碳排放的耦合關系研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國服務業(yè)增長與能源消費碳排放的耦合關系研究

Linking between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Service Economic Growth in China

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WANG Kai, LI Yong - xuan, YI Jing, ZHENG Qun - ming （1. Tourism College , Hunan Normal University , Changsha 410081 , Hunan , China ; 2. Institute of Geographic Scienc

[1]湖南師范大學旅游學院,中國湖南長沙410081; [2]中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所,中國北京100101

文章摘要：針對服務業(yè)領域節(jié)能減排研究的不足，基于IPCC溫室氣體排放清單指南中的碳排放因子與核算方法，核算T1995--2010年中國服務業(yè)能源消費和CO2排放量；運用脫鉤理論、ADF單位根檢驗、協(xié)整分析以及Granger因果關系檢驗，辨識和分析了服務業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長與能源消費、CO2排放之間的耦合關系。研究表明：從能源消費結構和CO2排放量變動趨勢上看，，服務業(yè)能源消費主要依賴于石油、煤炭等高碳化能源燃料，CO2排放量總體上呈現(xiàn)上升態(tài)勢；Tapio脫鉤分析結果顯示，服務業(yè)能源消費、CO2排放量與增加值之間的脫鉤狀況總體上呈現(xiàn)出逐步好轉(zhuǎn)的態(tài)勢，但仍有超過1/2的年份為擴張連結和擴張負脫鉤狀態(tài)，其脫鉤狀況亟需改善；協(xié)整分析結果顯示，服務業(yè)存在從經(jīng)濟增長到能源消費、CO2排放的單向Granger因果關系。最后，就中國服務業(yè)能源消費CO2排放的調(diào)控重點、調(diào)控手段與調(diào)控方向等提出了相應的對策建議。

Abstr：In the light of the insufficient study of energy saving and carbon emission reduction of service industry, using the carbon emissions coefficient and the accounting method of energy consumption recommended by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories, this paper estimates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China＇ s service industry during 1995--2010, and also identifies and analyses the relationship between economic growth of service industry and energy consumption as well as CO2 emissions by applying decoupling model, ADF unit root testing, Co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that： （1）As for the energy consumption structure and variation tendency, the energy consumption of China＇ s service industry mainly relies on high carbonation energy fuel such as petroleum and coal, and CO： emissions show a general upward trend during the study period; （2） Tapio decoupling analysis shows that the decoupling states between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth of China＇ s service industry are generally showing a positive tendency, but the decoupling states in more than 1/2 years of the study period fall into the intervals of expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling, which means the decoupling states are not very ideal; （3） Results of co-integration analysis shows that there exists a one-way Granger Causality from the economic growth to energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China＇ s service industry. Based on the above conclusions, some relative policy recommendations for the regulatory focus, methods and orientation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions strategy in China＇ s service industry are put forward.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:energy consumption CO2 emissions decoupling analysis co-integration analysis service industry China

課題項目：湖南師范大學青年優(yōu)秀人才培養(yǎng)計劃項目（2013YX07）;國家自然科學基金項目（40971299）

  本文關鍵詞：中國服務業(yè)增長與能源消費碳排放的耦合關系研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。