發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-14 19:52

  本文選題：第三產(chǎn)業(yè) + 國民經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，即我們一般意義上的服務(wù)業(yè)，在這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)涵不斷豐富、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)逐步完善的當(dāng)今社會(huì)，其涉及范圍也不斷擴(kuò)大。從世界范圍來說，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)達(dá)程度已經(jīng)成為衡量一個(gè)國家或地區(qū)現(xiàn)代化水平和綜合競爭力的重要標(biāo)志；就中國而言，隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展、人民生活水平的日益提高，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)與其他兩產(chǎn)業(yè)相比，其發(fā)展速度和增長比例表現(xiàn)更加突出。于是，越來越多的學(xué)者關(guān)注到這一“后起”產(chǎn)業(yè)，研究其迅速發(fā)展對(duì)于國民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他部分的影響作用。 本文首先對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中整體表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行了一般性描述，利用中國統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒中1978年至2011年的數(shù)據(jù)資料，選取年度增長率和增加值數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)比較，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的占比逐年增長，而隨著第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比的增加，我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長率波動(dòng)也趨于穩(wěn)定，因而我們得出了“第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展對(duì)于國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長具有拉動(dòng)作用，同時(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的劇烈波動(dòng)具有抑制作用”的猜想。而對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各產(chǎn)業(yè)的分析，我們借鑒中國統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒的分類方法，將第三產(chǎn)業(yè)分為交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)（簡稱“交通倉儲(chǔ)郵政業(yè)”），批發(fā)和零售業(yè)，住宿和餐飲業(yè)，金融業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，以及其他類型產(chǎn)業(yè)這六大類。選取這六大類產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長率年度指標(biāo)分別與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增長率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行比對(duì)，，進(jìn)一步分時(shí)段（分1978~1993年、1994~2011年兩階段）考察六大類產(chǎn)業(yè)增長率與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增長率的相關(guān)關(guān)系，并參考各產(chǎn)業(yè)總量占比情況，以貢獻(xiàn)程度和相關(guān)程度作為選擇依據(jù)選出交通倉儲(chǔ)郵政業(yè)、批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、金融業(yè)與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)這四者，作為代表性產(chǎn)業(yè)，代替第三產(chǎn)業(yè)總體，進(jìn)行與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系的分析比較。 鑒于涉及第三產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)或其部分的互動(dòng)關(guān)系研究之類的文獻(xiàn)已經(jīng)十分豐富，本文就從第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中篩選出四項(xiàng)代表性產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系的研究分析。本文選取GDP增長率和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增長率作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的指標(biāo)，分別研究四項(xiàng)代表性產(chǎn)業(yè)與此二者的關(guān)系。我們利用VAR模型，借鑒脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)與方差分解等方法得出了相應(yīng)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。在一系列相互影響、聯(lián)動(dòng)變化的效果中，四項(xiàng)代表性產(chǎn)業(yè)影響效果各有側(cè)重：交通倉儲(chǔ)郵政業(yè)作為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中占比最大的單一類型產(chǎn)業(yè)其影響效果無論對(duì)于GDP的增長抑或第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長都是最大的，批發(fā)和零售業(yè)對(duì)于GDP增長的沖擊影響更加突出，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增長的影響效果更為明顯，金融業(yè)“一正一反”沖擊效果印證了其經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)向標(biāo)的意義所在。以上代表性產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系及其意義，也反映了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)整體對(duì)于整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重大意義。 目前，國內(nèi)對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行研究的文獻(xiàn)中，用來表現(xiàn)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的指標(biāo)絕大部分都是使用單一的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)總量、增量或增長率指標(biāo)——這些數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的刻畫程度略顯單薄。本文探求通過科學(xué)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)姆椒ā皻庵笖?shù)測(cè)算法，對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行更加詳盡的刻畫，豐富指標(biāo)蘊(yùn)含內(nèi)容的同時(shí)，更能捕捉到及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確的反饋發(fā)展趨勢(shì)信息以及同其他國民經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果也證實(shí)編制景氣指數(shù)的方法是可行并有效的，本文編制出的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)一致景氣指數(shù)，在樣本區(qū)間內(nèi)對(duì)于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)刻畫程度較為準(zhǔn)確，解釋能力將強(qiáng)；而它與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)一致指數(shù)指標(biāo)的對(duì)比分析再次證明了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)作用與對(duì)于劇烈波動(dòng)的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:The third industry, is our general sense of service industry, and constantly enrich the industry connotation in today's society, the industrial structure is gradually perfect, the scope is also expanding. In the view of the world, the developed degree of the third industry has become an important symbol to measure the modernization level of a country or region and the comprehensive competitiveness of China is concerned; and with the rapid development of our national economy, the increasing of people's living standard, the third industry is compared with the other two industries, the pace of development and growth in the proportion of the more prominent. Therefore, more and more scholars pay attention to this newcomerindustry and study its rapid development to affect other parts of the national economy.
Firstly, for the third industry in the whole national economy overall performance of a general description, using China statistical yearbook 1978 to 2011 data, taking the annual growth rate and increase the value of the data for trend comparison, found that the proportion of added value increased year by year the third industry, with third industries accounted for the increase, I the national economy growth rate volatility tends to be stable, so we come to the conclusion that "the rapid development of the third industry has promoted the growth of the national economy, at the same time the violent fluctuations of the economy is inhibited by the conjecture. For the third industry internal analysis, we use classification method China statistical yearbook, will the third industry is divided into transportation, storage and postal services (hereinafter referred to as" transportation storage postal industry "), wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering industry, financial industry, real estate Industry, industrial and other types of these six categories. The six categories of industry growth rate of annual index respectively compared with the third industry growth rate data, further divided period (1978~1993 years, 1994~2011 years two stage) study six kind of industry and the third industry growth rate by correlation between long rates, and reference the proportion of the total industry, the contribution and the degree of correlation is used as the basis for choosing transportation storage postal industry selected, wholesale and retail, the four financial industry and the real estate industry, as a representative of the industry, instead of the third industry in general, comparison and analysis of the relationship between the national economic linkage.
In view of such interaction study involving third industry and the national economy or the part of the literature is very rich, this paper selected from the third industry analysis and research of the relationship between the national economic linkage of four representative industries. This paper selects GDP and second industrial growth rate as the index of national economy, the relationship of four respectively. Representative industries and the two. We use the VAR model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to get the corresponding interaction. In a series of mutual influence, the effect of changes in linkage, four representative industries have focused on the effect of transportation storage postal industry as the third industry accounted for the largest single type industry the effect for GDP growth or growth in the second industry is the largest. The influence of wholesale and retail trade for the impact of GDP growth More prominent, the effect of growth of the real estate industry of the second industry is more obvious, the financial industry "is an anti shock effect confirms the economic indicator of significance. The industrial linkage relationship and its significance for the national economy, but also reflects the significance of the third industry for the development of the national economy.
At present, the domestic research for the third industry in the literature for development in the third industry performance index is mostly using a total of third single industry, or incremental growth rate index -- these indicators for characterization of the third industry is slightly thin. This article explores the rigorous and scientific methods, index measuring method, characterization more detailed for the development of the third industry, the index contains rich content at the same time, it can capture the timely and accurate feedback of the development trend of information and relations with other economic data. The empirical results also confirmed that the method is feasible and effective index, this paper compiles the third industry consistent climate index in the sample the interval for the development trend of the third industrial characterization is more accurate, and it will explain the ability is strong; and the macro economy consistent The comparative analysis of index indicators again proves the role of the third industry in stimulating macroeconomic growth and the inhibition of violent fluctuations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124;F719

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