本文關鍵詞： 現(xiàn)代服務業(yè) 競爭力 SSA模型 灰色理論　出處：《武漢理工大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著社會經濟的發(fā)展,全球經濟結構已逐步由工業(yè)經濟向服務業(yè)經濟轉變,現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的發(fā)展成為現(xiàn)代經濟的一個重要特征,其競爭力直接影響到一個城市整體經濟的發(fā)展。武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)在近年來雖然取得了很大的進步,但和全國其他現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)發(fā)展較快的城市相比仍然存在很多問題,特別是競爭力方面。對武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)競爭力的研究將有助于了解該城市的經濟特性及其現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的內部行業(yè)結構,明確武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的優(yōu)勢和劣勢,突出現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的重點發(fā)展領域。 本文以武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)競爭力為研究對象,在對國內外有關現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)概念、理論、分類、研究內容、研究方法等進行歸納總結基礎上,界定本文對于現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的定義和分類。首先采用時間序列法將武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的發(fā)展分為了四個階段：準備階段(1978-1989年)、成長階段(1990-1997年)、快速增長階段(1998-2003年)、健康發(fā)展階段(2004-2011),并對武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的發(fā)展進行比較分析,結果表明武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)在現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)增長率、現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)增加值占GDP比重、現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)從業(yè)人員數(shù)比重都呈上升趨勢,武漢市三產結構在不斷優(yōu)化,現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)成為推動武漢市經濟發(fā)展的動力源泉；用SWOT方法分析了武漢發(fā)展現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的優(yōu)勢、劣勢、機會和威脅；其次,為了能夠對武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)競爭力有更好的認識,采用GM(1,1)模型對武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)經濟增量預測,從而從側面反映武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的競爭力發(fā)展空間,預測表明武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)在未來幾年將保持快速增長的趨勢,預計整個“十二五”期間現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)經濟增加值將以13.8%的增長速度增長,到2015年武漢市現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)經濟增加值將達5159.9398億元,這有利于把握未來武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)的發(fā)展空間和城市投資規(guī)劃;再次,運用SSA模型對武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)行業(yè)競爭力進行分析,并將武漢放在全國19個重點城市(4個直轄市和15個副省級城市)范圍內進行整體競爭力分析,研究結果表明武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)中朝陽的、增長快的產業(yè)部門比重大,總體的競爭能力較強,且有上升的趨勢,但武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)行業(yè)特別是高技術、高信息化產業(yè)所占的經濟增長份額小,應對其內部行業(yè)結構進行調整,加大現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)行業(yè)在第三產業(yè)、在整過國民經濟中的經濟增長份額和投資力度。最后提出了提升武漢現(xiàn)代服務業(yè)競爭力的對策和建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the global economic structure has gradually changed from industrial economy to service economy, and the development of modern service industry has become an important feature of modern economy. Although Wuhan modern service industry has made great progress in recent years, it still has many problems compared with other cities with rapid development of modern service industry in China. The research on the competitiveness of Wuhan's modern service industry will be helpful to understand the economic characteristics of the city and the internal structure of the modern service industry, and to clarify the advantages and disadvantages of the development of Wuhan's modern service industry. Highlight the key areas of development of the modern service industry. This paper takes Wuhan modern service industry competitiveness as the research object, on the basis of summarizing the concept, theory, classification, research content, research method of modern service industry at home and abroad. This paper defines the definition and classification of modern service industry in this paper. Firstly, the development of modern service industry in Wuhan is divided into four stages by using the time series method: preparatory stage 1978-1989, growth stage 1990-1997, rapid growth stage 1998-2003, healthy stage. A comparative analysis of the development of the modern service industry in Wuhan, The results show that the growth rate of modern service industry in Wuhan, the proportion of added value of modern service industry to GDP, the proportion of employees of modern service industry are all on the rise, and the structure of three industries in Wuhan is continuously optimized. The modern service industry has become the motive source to promote the economic development of Wuhan. The advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of Wuhan's development of modern service industry are analyzed by SWOT method. Secondly, in order to have a better understanding of the competitiveness of Wuhan's modern service industry, This paper forecasts the economic increment of modern service industry in Wuhan by using GMX 1 / 1) model, so as to reflect the development space of competitiveness of modern service industry in Wuhan. The forecast indicates that the modern service industry in Wuhan will maintain the trend of rapid growth in the next few years. It is expected that the economic added value of modern service industry will increase at a rate of 13.8% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. By 2015, the added value of modern service economy in Wuhan will reach five hundred and fifteen billion nine hundred and ninety-three million nine hundred and eighty thousand yuan. This will help to grasp the future Wuhan modern service industry development space and urban investment planning. Thirdly, using SSA model to analyze the competitiveness of Wuhan modern service industry. And put Wuhan in the scope of 19 key cities (4 municipalities directly under the Central Government and 15 sub-provincial cities) to analyze the overall competitiveness of Wuhan. The results show that the rising and fast growing industrial sectors in the modern service industry of Wuhan have a large proportion. The overall competitive power is strong, and there is an upward trend, but Wuhan's modern service industry, especially high-tech, has a small share of economic growth, and its internal industry structure should be adjusted. This paper increases the share of economic growth and investment of modern service industry in the tertiary industry and the whole national economy. Finally, it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the competitiveness of modern service industry in Wuhan.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F719

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