本文關(guān)鍵詞： 多項式羅吉特選擇模型 消費者偏好 動態(tài)規(guī)劃 銷售策略　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前,我國的演唱會市場正在飛速發(fā)展,演唱會的數(shù)量和收益都在不斷提高,但是由于該行業(yè)的發(fā)展時間較短,在市場運作和服務(wù)方面還有一些不足,學(xué)者們大多針對演唱會本身的環(huán)境和定價等進(jìn)行研究(崔寒,2002;陳瑜妍,2008,夏夢琦,2012)。本文將消費者的購買行為和銷售策略結(jié)合起來,在一個壟斷的單一演唱會市場的背景下,對基于消費者選擇的動態(tài)收益進(jìn)行模擬研究。 下面介紹本文的研究思路,首選提出了研究背景和意義,描述并比較在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和市場研究領(lǐng)域中應(yīng)用較多的兩個基于消費者選擇的模型。接下來根據(jù)演唱會的座位特點和消費者的不同偏好選擇,決定演唱會門票的三個不同屬性：票價高低,座位離舞臺遠(yuǎn)近和座位的角度。并依據(jù)Logit模型量化出顧客對不同產(chǎn)品的選擇概率。 在進(jìn)行演唱會門票銷售模擬時,本文根據(jù)文獻(xiàn)資料和作者的經(jīng)驗合理設(shè)定了一些參數(shù),將演唱會的門票根據(jù)上述的門票屬性分為五個等級,并依據(jù)動態(tài)規(guī)劃的思想,將零售商的售票過程分為一個相關(guān)聯(lián)的三階段決策問題,對于每一階段,不同類別的消費者到達(dá)比例不同,而零售商對五類門票有不同的組合策略。 在收益管理的研究中,由于現(xiàn)實生活中變量的因素很多而且很復(fù)雜,要得到最優(yōu)的解有一定的難度,作者在研究中受到了Qian Liu和Garrett van Ryzin (2008)的收益方程的啟發(fā)來進(jìn)行模擬。然而他們的動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型由于將時間分得過細(xì),而狀態(tài)空間的維數(shù)過大,在大多數(shù)現(xiàn)實生活中是不可解的。再加上動態(tài)規(guī)劃過程沒有準(zhǔn)確的公式或算法來適合所有的情況,都要具體問題具體分析,因此,本文提出了一個近似的決策問題,用近似的方法將收益函數(shù)變?yōu)榭捎嬎愕男问?這在某種程度上降低了運算的復(fù)雜度,更容易解決問題。通過對現(xiàn)實生活中幾種情況的模擬：一,三個階段不同消費者到達(dá)比例的變化(分別是商務(wù)消費者先來,敏感消費者先來和消費者到達(dá)情況差不多的情形)；二,市場需求量的變化：三,產(chǎn)品種類的變化。在以上的情況中根據(jù)消費者對不同產(chǎn)品的選擇概率,比較不同情況下相對較好的收益和產(chǎn)品組合,作者希望得到一個直觀的認(rèn)識,即要如何安排才能使門票盡可能的賣完,并讓有能力買高價票的消費者盡可能的買到此類產(chǎn)品,從而提高演唱會的收益。最后,本文對提高演唱會門票收益管理提出了三個建議,分別是：提供折扣或優(yōu)惠卷；將市場分的更細(xì)；不斷更新收益管理的方案。 本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)基于消費者偏好的離散選擇模型是一個具有經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的方式,對研究消費者的偏好和支付意愿有一定的價值,可以為演唱會供應(yīng)商進(jìn)行更好的市場細(xì)分,制定更有效的運營策略提供幫助。 由于本文的模擬只是復(fù)雜的商業(yè)活動中一種或幾種情況,考慮的參數(shù)不一定全面和精確,在對消費者的類別(效用)和數(shù)量上的模擬仍然有一些局限性。在今后的研究中,可以在一個合適的范圍進(jìn)行市場調(diào)研使數(shù)據(jù)更加接近真實。 而針對模擬自身的復(fù)雜性,隨著計算機技術(shù)的飛速進(jìn)步,基于動態(tài)規(guī)劃的收益管理問題也會得到不斷的提高和完善,學(xué)者們通過嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)科學(xué)的運籌規(guī)劃,將不斷完善動態(tài)收益管理的性能。
[Abstract]:At present, China's market is the rapid development of the concert, the concert volume and revenue are constantly improving, but because the development time of the industry is relatively short, there are some shortcomings in the operation of the market and services, most of the scholars in the concert itself and environment Pricing Research (Cui Han, 2002; Chen Yuyan 2008, summer, Mengqi, 2012). This will be the purchase behavior of consumers and sales strategies together, will be in a single market singing a monopoly in the background, the simulation research of the dynamic earnings based on consumer choice.
The following describes the research ideas of this paper, first introduced the research background and significance, and describes the application more comparison in economics and market research in the field of two consumer choice model based on. Then according to the different characteristics and consumer preference seat concert choice, three different properties determine concert tickets: tickets or seats from the stage the distance and the angle of the seat. And on the basis of Logit model to quantify the probability of selection of customers of different products.
The concert ticket sales simulation, this paper based on the literature and the author's experience in setting some parameters, the tickets for the concert tickets according to the above mentioned characteristics are divided into five levels, and on the basis of the theory of dynamic programming, the ticket retailer is divided into an associated three stage decision-making problem, for in each stage, different categories of consumers at different proportion, and the retailer has a combination of different strategies for five kinds of tickets.
In the study of revenue management, because the variables in real life are many and very complex, to get the optimal solution has a certain degree of difficulty, the author is Qian Liu and Garrett van Ryzin in the study (2008) inspired the yield equation to simulate. However, their dynamic programming model because of the time allocated to however, the dimension of the state space is too large, in most real life is not solvable. Coupled with the dynamic programming process without accurate formula or algorithm suitable for all situations, have to analyze specific issues, therefore, this paper proposes an approximate decision problem with approximate methods for calculate the variable profit function form, which to some extent reduce the computational complexity, easier to solve the problem. Through the simulation of several real life situations: first, three different stages of consumer arrival ratio Change (are consumers first, consumers first and consumers to reach the sensitive situation about the situation); two, changes in market demand: three, changes in product variety. In these cases according to the probability of consumer choice of different products in different conditions, a relatively good income and product portfolio, the author hope to get an intuitive understanding, that is how to arrange the tickets sold out to make as much as possible, and to have the ability to buy expensive tickets to consumers as much as possible to buy such products, so as to improve the concert revenue. Finally, this article is to improve the ticket revenue management has put forward three suggestions are: to provide discount or coupon; the market is divided more detailed; constantly updated revenue management solutions.
This study found that the discrete choice model based on consumer preferences is a cost-effective way, have a certain value for the study of consumer preferences and willingness to pay for the concert, can the supplier better market segments, make the operation more effective strategies to help.
Because the simulation is complex business activities in one or more of the parameters, not necessarily comprehensive and accurate, in the consumer category (utility) and the number of simulation still has some limitations. In the future, can carry out market research in a suitable range of the data is more close to true.
According to the complexity of simulation, along with the rapid progress of computer technology, the problem of revenue management based on dynamic programming will continue to improve and improve. Scholars will continuously improve the performance of dynamic revenue management through rigorous scientific operation planning.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F719;F224

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本文編號：1498517