【摘要】：在房價持續(xù)“高企”,房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控新政頻頻出臺的背景下,有對房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅硬著陸的擔(dān)憂,也有對房價在供需推動下持續(xù)上漲的投資期待。房價是否能夠被基本面因素解釋,房價是否合理是市場爭論的焦點。 本文從房價與租金間的關(guān)系出發(fā),以區(qū)域房價合理性評估為主要研究對象,通過對搜房網(wǎng)上的數(shù)據(jù)進行采樣與整理,形成了重慶、成都的市區(qū)內(nèi)各片區(qū)組成的兩個城市的橫截面房價、租金相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。以房價、租金關(guān)系為核心展開分析；針對房價合理性的區(qū)域比較問題；首先以DCF模型和租售比概念為基礎(chǔ),應(yīng)用土地價格動力學(xué)模型和增長極理論,提出了對租售比概念的改進,引申出差額租售比模型和超越價值的概念,并將模型限制在橫截面數(shù)據(jù)下有條件地使用。然后針對重慶、成都的各片區(qū)的房價、租金數(shù)據(jù),在橫截面上應(yīng)用差額租售比模型分別得出重慶、成都的城市區(qū)域的差額租售比、超越價值；通過樣本點對回歸曲線的偏離程度判定各片區(qū)樣本點房價的合理性。通過參數(shù)逆推法,推斷差額租售比模型參數(shù)中蘊含著的市場宏觀經(jīng)濟預(yù)期；根據(jù)市場宏觀經(jīng)濟預(yù)期的合理性去判斷房價的合理性。根據(jù)這樣的思路,比較分析了成都、重慶地區(qū)的房價合理性。 研究表明,成渝地區(qū)的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)均顯示出該片區(qū)的邊際租金、房價關(guān)系的決策中市場保持著偏悲觀的預(yù)期,而對于房價整體而言卻保持著對房屋產(chǎn)權(quán)持有的過于強烈的需求。差額租售比模型揭示出了房地產(chǎn)市場的邊際行為反應(yīng)出的當(dāng)前市場預(yù)期是過于悲觀的；然而對于超越價值的追逐卻支撐著房價；最終二者矛盾的結(jié)果就是在整體上使得房價與租金的關(guān)系保持著接近市場穩(wěn)定的水平。對此,政府需要一方面穩(wěn)定市場對于經(jīng)濟前景的預(yù)期,避免市場情緒過于悲觀；另一方面需要降低房屋產(chǎn)權(quán)的附屬社會意義,使得房屋產(chǎn)權(quán)與戶口脫鉤,讓戶口與特權(quán)福利脫鉤,讓房屋回歸其居住職能。
[Abstract]:In the context of the persistent "high" housing prices and the frequent introduction of new policies for real estate regulation and control, there are concerns about a hard landing of the bursting of the real estate bubble, as well as investment expectations for sustained increases in housing prices driven by supply and demand. Whether the housing price can be explained by the fundamental factors, whether the price is reasonable is the focus of the market debate. Starting from the relationship between house price and rent, this paper takes the rationality evaluation of regional house price as the main research object, and through sampling and sorting out the data of the search house network, forms Chongqing. The cross-sectional house price and rent data of the two cities in the urban area of Chengdu. Taking the relationship between house price and rent as the core, this paper analyzes the regional comparison of the rationality of house price. Firstly, based on the DCF model and the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, applying the dynamic model of land price and the theory of growth pole, this paper puts forward the improvement of the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, and extends the concept of differential rent-to-sale ratio model and the concept of exceeding value. The model is restricted to conditional use under cross-sectional data. Then according to the data of house price and rent in Chongqing and Chengdu, the difference rent-to-sale ratio model is applied in cross-section to get the difference rent-to-sale ratio of Chongqing and Chengdu, which exceeds the value. Through the deviation degree of sample point to regression curve, the rationality of house price of sample point in each area is judged. The paper deduces the market macro-economic expectation contained in the parameter of the differential rent-sale ratio model by using the parameter inversion method and judges the rationality of the house price according to the rationality of the market macro-economic expectation. According to this train of thought, this paper compares and analyzes the rationality of house price in Chengdu and Chongqing. The research shows that the cross-sectional data of Chengdu-Chongqing region show the marginal rent of the area, the market maintains a pessimistic expectation in the decision-making of house price relationship, but for the whole house price, the demand for housing property right is too strong. The differential rent-to-sale ratio model reveals that the marginal behavior of the real estate market reflects that the current market expectations are too pessimistic, however, the pursuit of exceeding the value of the real estate market supports the housing price; The final result of the contradiction is to keep the relationship between house price and rent close to the stable level of the market. On the one hand, the government needs to stabilize market expectations for economic prospects, to avoid market sentiment is too pessimistic; On the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the social significance of the housing property right, to make the housing property right decouple from the household registration, to make the hukou decouple from the privileged welfare, and to let the house return to its living function.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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