基于SD模型的上海住房保障水平仿真研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-06 12:32
【摘要】：隨著人口規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大以及城市化發(fā)展速度的不斷加快,越來(lái)越多的人口聚集于城市,人口的聚集產(chǎn)生了對(duì)城市住房和土地的巨大需求,從而導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)快速上漲。同時(shí),伴隨著我國(guó)的收入差距不斷擴(kuò)大,國(guó)民財(cái)富主要聚集在高收入階層手中,中低收入階層的購(gòu)房愿望更加難以實(shí)現(xiàn),只能“望房興嘆”。為此,政府開(kāi)始推行住房保障工程,以保障中低收入階層最基本的住房權(quán)利,隨著中央及地方各級(jí)政府對(duì)保障性住房重視程度的加重,學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)于住房保障的研究也遍地開(kāi)花,然而,對(duì)于住房保障水平的研究卻不多。本文在理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的基礎(chǔ)上,以上海市住房保障水平為研究對(duì)象,建立系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,對(duì)住房保障水平進(jìn)行政策仿真實(shí)驗(yàn),以期發(fā)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)重要政策參數(shù)對(duì)住房保障水平的影響作用,從而提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。文章的研究思路如下:首先,文章總結(jié)了關(guān)于住房保障水平的理論研究及文獻(xiàn)綜述,理論研究部分是全文研究的基礎(chǔ),文獻(xiàn)綜述則不僅對(duì)本文的開(kāi)展有很大的借鑒意義,同時(shí)也是本文的切入點(diǎn)所在。其次,建立基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的住房保障水平理論模型,該理論模型共包括四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)。然后,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型對(duì)上海市的住房保障水平進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,對(duì)模型進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)方程建立、參數(shù)估計(jì)、模型檢驗(yàn)之后,設(shè)置六個(gè)情景仿真實(shí)驗(yàn),以研究系統(tǒng)內(nèi)重要政策參數(shù)對(duì)住房保障水平的影響作用。最后,根據(jù)仿真分析結(jié)果給出合理的對(duì)策建議,這是本文研究的出發(fā)點(diǎn),亦是落腳點(diǎn)。通過(guò)政策仿真實(shí)驗(yàn),本文認(rèn)為:保障性住房補(bǔ)貼方式中“人頭補(bǔ)貼”比“磚頭補(bǔ)貼”效率更高,政府可以采取以下措施以提高住房保障水平,即要確定適度的住房保障投資比例,優(yōu)化調(diào)整住房保障投資結(jié)構(gòu),創(chuàng)造穩(wěn)定的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展環(huán)境,建立并完善個(gè)人信用體系,為生育政策的改變準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)策略。同時(shí),在保障性住房法律建設(shè)、政策性金融支持體系建立、拓寬融資渠道、保障對(duì)象確定等問(wèn)題上也必須給與重視。只有不斷完善住房保障體系,才能使住房保障水平得以提高,從而使更多地中低收入群體享受到政府的住房保障福利。本文的研究具有一定的理論意義及實(shí)踐價(jià)值,住房保障水平SD模型的創(chuàng)建豐富了住房保障領(lǐng)域的研究成果,同時(shí),上海市住房保障水平的仿真分析對(duì)把握上海市總體的住房保障水平,完善住房保障體系,制定階段性及長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)性的策略都有一定的參考意義,對(duì)全國(guó)其他地區(qū)的住房保障體系建立也有很強(qiáng)的借鑒價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of population and the rapid development of urbanization, more and more people gather in the city. The aggregation of population leads to the huge demand for urban housing and land, which leads to the rapid increase of house prices. At the same time, with the widening income gap in our country, the national wealth is mainly concentrated in the hands of the high-income class, and the low-and middle-income class's desire to buy a house is more difficult to realize, and can only "look at the house and sigh". For this reason, the government began to carry out housing security projects to protect the most basic housing rights of the middle-and low-income class. With the increasing attention attached to affordable housing by the central and local governments at all levels, the academic research on housing security has also blossomed everywhere. However, there are few studies on the level of housing security. Based on the combination of theory and practice, this paper takes the housing security level of Shanghai as the research object, establishes the system dynamics model, and carries on the policy simulation experiment to the housing security level, In order to find out the effect of the important policy parameters on the housing security level in the system, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The research ideas are as follows: firstly, the paper summarizes the theoretical research and literature review on the level of housing security. The theoretical research part is the basis of the full-text research, and the literature review is not only of great significance to the development of this paper. At the same time, it is also the starting point of this paper. Secondly, a theoretical model of housing security level based on system dynamics is established, which consists of four subsystems. Then, using the system dynamics model to carry on the empirical analysis to the housing security level of Shanghai, establish the structure equation of the model, estimate the parameters and test the model, then set up six scene simulation experiments. In order to study the impact of important policy parameters in the system on the level of housing security. Finally, according to the simulation analysis results, the reasonable countermeasures and suggestions are given, which is the starting point and the end point of this paper. Through the policy simulation experiment, this paper holds that the "head subsidy" is more efficient than the "brick subsidy" in the way of subsidizing affordable housing, and the government can take the following measures to improve the level of housing security. That is to say, it is necessary to determine the appropriate proportion of housing security investment, optimize the investment structure of housing security, create a stable environment for the development of real estate market, establish and perfect the personal credit system, and prepare strategies for the change of fertility policy. At the same time, we must pay more attention to the legal construction of affordable housing, the establishment of policy-based financial support system, the widening of financing channels, and the determination of guarantee objects. Only by constantly improving the housing security system can the housing security level be improved, so that more low-and middle-income groups can enjoy the housing security benefits of the government. The research in this paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value. The establishment of the SD model of housing security level enriches the research results in the field of housing security, and at the same time, The simulation analysis of the housing security level in Shanghai has certain reference significance to grasp the overall housing security level in Shanghai, improve the housing security system, and formulate the strategy of stage and long-term. The establishment of housing security system in other parts of the country also has a strong reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
本文編號(hào)：2435521
[Abstract]:With the expansion of population and the rapid development of urbanization, more and more people gather in the city. The aggregation of population leads to the huge demand for urban housing and land, which leads to the rapid increase of house prices. At the same time, with the widening income gap in our country, the national wealth is mainly concentrated in the hands of the high-income class, and the low-and middle-income class's desire to buy a house is more difficult to realize, and can only "look at the house and sigh". For this reason, the government began to carry out housing security projects to protect the most basic housing rights of the middle-and low-income class. With the increasing attention attached to affordable housing by the central and local governments at all levels, the academic research on housing security has also blossomed everywhere. However, there are few studies on the level of housing security. Based on the combination of theory and practice, this paper takes the housing security level of Shanghai as the research object, establishes the system dynamics model, and carries on the policy simulation experiment to the housing security level, In order to find out the effect of the important policy parameters on the housing security level in the system, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The research ideas are as follows: firstly, the paper summarizes the theoretical research and literature review on the level of housing security. The theoretical research part is the basis of the full-text research, and the literature review is not only of great significance to the development of this paper. At the same time, it is also the starting point of this paper. Secondly, a theoretical model of housing security level based on system dynamics is established, which consists of four subsystems. Then, using the system dynamics model to carry on the empirical analysis to the housing security level of Shanghai, establish the structure equation of the model, estimate the parameters and test the model, then set up six scene simulation experiments. In order to study the impact of important policy parameters in the system on the level of housing security. Finally, according to the simulation analysis results, the reasonable countermeasures and suggestions are given, which is the starting point and the end point of this paper. Through the policy simulation experiment, this paper holds that the "head subsidy" is more efficient than the "brick subsidy" in the way of subsidizing affordable housing, and the government can take the following measures to improve the level of housing security. That is to say, it is necessary to determine the appropriate proportion of housing security investment, optimize the investment structure of housing security, create a stable environment for the development of real estate market, establish and perfect the personal credit system, and prepare strategies for the change of fertility policy. At the same time, we must pay more attention to the legal construction of affordable housing, the establishment of policy-based financial support system, the widening of financing channels, and the determination of guarantee objects. Only by constantly improving the housing security system can the housing security level be improved, so that more low-and middle-income groups can enjoy the housing security benefits of the government. The research in this paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value. The establishment of the SD model of housing security level enriches the research results in the field of housing security, and at the same time, The simulation analysis of the housing security level in Shanghai has certain reference significance to grasp the overall housing security level in Shanghai, improve the housing security system, and formulate the strategy of stage and long-term. The establishment of housing security system in other parts of the country also has a strong reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
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