小區(qū)市政管線工程業(yè)主方風(fēng)險管理研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-16 14:29
【摘要】：當(dāng)前，我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)控政策頻出，市場環(huán)境復(fù)雜，項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的不確定因素越來越多,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的競爭越來越激烈，全過程、全方面、全員參與的風(fēng)險管理則是有效的應(yīng)對方法。 小區(qū)市政管線是指住宅小區(qū)紅線內(nèi)地下管線，是小區(qū)配套設(shè)施的重要組成部分，雖然其投資比例較小，但是對房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的各個階段都有重要的影響。本論文選取小區(qū)市政管線中對項(xiàng)目開發(fā)影響最大的供水、供電、供氣管線進(jìn)行研究，簡述國內(nèi)近三十年來，小區(qū)市政管線的建設(shè)、管理模式以及其中所存在的問題，通過對相關(guān)法律法規(guī)和現(xiàn)行管線管理模式的分析，指出二者之間的矛盾所帶來的產(chǎn)權(quán)困境是風(fēng)險產(chǎn)生的主要根源。 本文將小區(qū)市政管線工程看成獨(dú)立的項(xiàng)目，按項(xiàng)目的基本生命周期理論，結(jié)合小區(qū)市政管線工程的特點(diǎn)，構(gòu)建階段模型，將小區(qū)市政管線工程分為報裝、合同、施工、驗(yàn)收四個階段。采用專家訪談法，選取有豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)管理人員進(jìn)行訪談；采用案例分析法，選取五個案例，對其中較為典型的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行分析；通過對報裝階段報裝流程的分析，合同階段信息不對稱、分包商索賠的博弈分析，，施工階段施工環(huán)境、質(zhì)量問題的分析，驗(yàn)收階段驗(yàn)收流程的分析，總結(jié)出風(fēng)險成因。最后綜合以上三種方法，得出風(fēng)險識別清單。 在風(fēng)險的評估上，根據(jù)小區(qū)市政管線的風(fēng)險特點(diǎn)，對風(fēng)險發(fā)生概率與損害后果進(jìn)行分級，構(gòu)建風(fēng)險等級矩陣并進(jìn)行風(fēng)險排序。根據(jù)風(fēng)險的多維特性，從不可察覺性、不可控性、不可逆轉(zhuǎn)性、影響持續(xù)時間、級聯(lián)影響五個角度構(gòu)建評價模型，對分級后的風(fēng)險二次過濾，彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)方法的不足，并為風(fēng)險的正確應(yīng)對提供了依據(jù)。介紹風(fēng)險應(yīng)對的常用方法，根據(jù)風(fēng)險應(yīng)對的過程和要點(diǎn)，建立風(fēng)險應(yīng)對表。結(jié)合風(fēng)險動態(tài)管理理論，指出小區(qū)市政管線建設(shè)中風(fēng)險的“遷移效應(yīng)”。介紹小區(qū)市政管線風(fēng)險監(jiān)控的重點(diǎn)和常用監(jiān)控方法。 在御翠尚府小區(qū)市政管線建設(shè)中，成立風(fēng)險管理小組，依據(jù)風(fēng)險管理流程和理論，結(jié)合項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)，開展風(fēng)險管理，對風(fēng)險管理理論進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究并總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:At present, the regulation and control policies of China's real estate industry frequently emerge, the market environment is complex, the uncertain factors of project development are more and more numerous, the competition between the real estate industry is becoming more and more intense, the whole process, all aspects, Risk management with full participation is an effective way to deal with it. The municipal pipeline is the underground pipeline in the red line of the residential district, which is an important part of the supporting facilities of the residential area. Although its investment ratio is small, it has an important influence on every stage of the development of the real estate project. In this paper, the water supply, power supply and gas supply pipeline, which have the greatest impact on the project development, are selected to study, and the construction, management mode and existing problems of the residential municipal pipeline in the past 30 years are briefly described. Based on the analysis of relevant laws and regulations and the current pipeline management model, it is pointed out that the dilemma of property rights caused by the contradiction between them is the main source of risk. According to the basic life cycle theory of the project and the characteristics of the municipal pipeline engineering in the residential area, this paper constructs the stage model, and divides the municipal pipeline engineering of the residential area into three parts: report, contract, construction, etc. Acceptance of the four stages. Using the method of expert interview, selecting experienced real estate development managers to interview, using the case analysis method, selecting five cases to analyze the more typical risk factors; Through the analysis of the process of reporting and loading in the stage of report and loading, the asymmetry of information in the contract stage, the game analysis of the subcontractor's claim, the construction environment in the construction stage, the analysis of the quality problem, and the analysis of the acceptance process in the acceptance stage, the causes of the risk are summarized. Finally, the risk identification list is obtained by synthesizing the above three methods. In the aspect of risk assessment, according to the risk characteristics of municipal pipelines in residential areas, risk occurrence probability and damage consequence are classified, risk rank matrix is constructed and risk ranking is carried out. According to the multidimensional characteristics of risk, the evaluation model is constructed from five angles of imperceptibility, uncontrollability, irreversibility, influence duration and cascade influence. It also provides the basis for the correct management of risk. This paper introduces the common methods of risk response, and establishes the risk response table according to the process and key points of risk response. Based on the theory of dynamic risk management, this paper points out the "migration effect" of risk in the construction of municipal pipelines in residential areas. This paper introduces the key points and common monitoring methods of risk monitoring of municipal pipelines in residential areas. In the construction of municipal pipeline in Yucuishangfu district, a risk management team was set up to carry out risk management according to the risk management process and theory, combined with the characteristics of the project, and to carry out an empirical study and summary of the risk management theory.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU990.3
本文編號：2335772
[Abstract]:At present, the regulation and control policies of China's real estate industry frequently emerge, the market environment is complex, the uncertain factors of project development are more and more numerous, the competition between the real estate industry is becoming more and more intense, the whole process, all aspects, Risk management with full participation is an effective way to deal with it. The municipal pipeline is the underground pipeline in the red line of the residential district, which is an important part of the supporting facilities of the residential area. Although its investment ratio is small, it has an important influence on every stage of the development of the real estate project. In this paper, the water supply, power supply and gas supply pipeline, which have the greatest impact on the project development, are selected to study, and the construction, management mode and existing problems of the residential municipal pipeline in the past 30 years are briefly described. Based on the analysis of relevant laws and regulations and the current pipeline management model, it is pointed out that the dilemma of property rights caused by the contradiction between them is the main source of risk. According to the basic life cycle theory of the project and the characteristics of the municipal pipeline engineering in the residential area, this paper constructs the stage model, and divides the municipal pipeline engineering of the residential area into three parts: report, contract, construction, etc. Acceptance of the four stages. Using the method of expert interview, selecting experienced real estate development managers to interview, using the case analysis method, selecting five cases to analyze the more typical risk factors; Through the analysis of the process of reporting and loading in the stage of report and loading, the asymmetry of information in the contract stage, the game analysis of the subcontractor's claim, the construction environment in the construction stage, the analysis of the quality problem, and the analysis of the acceptance process in the acceptance stage, the causes of the risk are summarized. Finally, the risk identification list is obtained by synthesizing the above three methods. In the aspect of risk assessment, according to the risk characteristics of municipal pipelines in residential areas, risk occurrence probability and damage consequence are classified, risk rank matrix is constructed and risk ranking is carried out. According to the multidimensional characteristics of risk, the evaluation model is constructed from five angles of imperceptibility, uncontrollability, irreversibility, influence duration and cascade influence. It also provides the basis for the correct management of risk. This paper introduces the common methods of risk response, and establishes the risk response table according to the process and key points of risk response. Based on the theory of dynamic risk management, this paper points out the "migration effect" of risk in the construction of municipal pipelines in residential areas. This paper introduces the key points and common monitoring methods of risk monitoring of municipal pipelines in residential areas. In the construction of municipal pipeline in Yucuishangfu district, a risk management team was set up to carry out risk management according to the risk management process and theory, combined with the characteristics of the project, and to carry out an empirical study and summary of the risk management theory.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU990.3
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