【摘要】：貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)是指同一貨幣政策在不同區(qū)域發(fā)揮效應(yīng)的差異性。我國是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡的大國，不同區(qū)域的發(fā)展水平和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)存在較大的差異，同時(shí)要素流動(dòng)阻礙、經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度不一、產(chǎn)品多樣化發(fā)展不平衡、金融一體化程度不高等這些因素決定了我國不構(gòu)成最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)。而我國的中央銀行制度是，人行在全國范圍內(nèi)采取統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策，，這就必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致貨幣政策效應(yīng)的差異性。文章通過研究房地產(chǎn)市場貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，比較不同地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對利率、信貸規(guī)模和貨幣供應(yīng)量等指標(biāo)變化的敏感程度，得出如何通過改變貨幣政策的結(jié)構(gòu)或縮小不同區(qū)域的差異，來解決貨幣政策區(qū)域不對稱性對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響的結(jié)論。 本文第一章主要包括了研究背景、問題的提出、研究意義和研究目的，介紹了國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的研究現(xiàn)狀，對研究思路和方法進(jìn)行介紹。本文將理論分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合，采取了比較分析和綜合分析并用的方法，運(yùn)用VAR方法對時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和脈沖效應(yīng)分析。第二章主要介紹了房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)理論及貨幣政策相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)，為后文的實(shí)證分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章闡述了貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的作用機(jī)制。主要以人民銀行貨幣政策的角度，從利率、信用總量、貨幣供應(yīng)量三個(gè)方面分析其在房地產(chǎn)市場的作用機(jī)制（其中利率包括存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行7天加權(quán)平均同業(yè)拆借率以及銀行間市場債券質(zhì)押式回購平均利率），理論上研究貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響。第四章則對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素存在區(qū)域效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。首先對模型的變量選取進(jìn)行解釋，然后對東、中、西三地的季度平均房價(jià)和貨幣供應(yīng)量、國家信貸規(guī)模、銀行加權(quán)平均7天拆借利率、銀行間市場債券質(zhì)押式回購平均利率季度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行說明。實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)部分中，對三地的房地產(chǎn)季度數(shù)據(jù)和貨幣政策中介指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)，建立VAR模型進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)，然后進(jìn)行脈沖響應(yīng)分析，對三地房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素及影響的強(qiáng)弱程度進(jìn)行對比。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，東部地區(qū)對銀行7天加權(quán)平均同業(yè)拆借率和銀行間市場債券質(zhì)押式回購平均利率反應(yīng)較為敏感，中西部地區(qū)的房價(jià)則與貨幣因素關(guān)聯(lián)更大，對信貸總量和貨幣供應(yīng)量的反應(yīng)敏感。第五章主要在實(shí)證結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了我國房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)出貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的原因，并對如何縮小我國房地產(chǎn)市場區(qū)域性差異問題提出政策建議。文章認(rèn)為可以從實(shí)行差別化的貨幣政策、加強(qiáng)地區(qū)銀行和城市信用社在本地經(jīng)濟(jì)中的作用、加強(qiáng)利率在全國范圍內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)傳導(dǎo)作用三個(gè)方面著手來解決我國區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡對貨幣政策在房地產(chǎn)市場區(qū)域效應(yīng)的影響的問題。
[Abstract]:The regional effect of monetary policy refers to the difference of the effect of the same monetary policy in different regions. China is a large country with unbalanced economic development. There are great differences in the level of development and economic structure in different regions. At the same time, the flow of elements is obstructed, the degree of economic opening varies, and the diversified development of products is not balanced. These factors, such as the low degree of financial integration, determine that China does not constitute the optimal currency area. But the central bank system of our country is that the people's Bank of China adopts a unified monetary policy in the whole country, which will inevitably lead to the difference of monetary policy effect. By studying the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in real estate market, this paper compares the sensitivity of real estate prices to the changes of interest rate, credit scale and money supply in different regions. The conclusion is that how to change the structure of monetary policy or narrow the differences between different regions to solve the impact of regional asymmetry of monetary policy on the real estate market. The first chapter of this paper mainly includes the research background, the question raising, the research significance and the research purpose, introduces the domestic and foreign literature research present situation, carries on the introduction to the research thought and the method. This paper combines the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis, adopts the method of comparative analysis and comprehensive analysis and uses the VAR method to carry on the cointegration test, the system stability test, the Granger causality test and the pulse effect analysis to the time series. The second chapter mainly introduces the theories of real estate and monetary policy. The third chapter expounds the effect of monetary policy on real estate prices. From the perspective of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy, this paper analyzes its mechanism of action in the real estate market from three aspects: interest rate, total credit amount and money supply. The 7-day weighted average interbank lending rate and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market) are theoretically studied on the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices. The fourth chapter makes an empirical test on the regional effect of real estate price influence factors. First, the variable selection of the model is explained, then the quarterly average house prices and money supply, the scale of national credit, the weighted average 7-day lending rate of banks in the east, middle and west of the country are explained. The interbank market bond pledge type repurchase average interest rate quarterly data to carry on the explanation. In the part of empirical test, we test the stability of quarterly real estate data and monetary policy intermediary index data, establish VAR model for cointegration test and Granger test, and then carry out impulse response analysis. This paper compares the influence factors and the degree of influence of real estate price in three places. The empirical results show that the eastern region is more sensitive to the average interbank lending rate of 7 days and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market, while the housing prices in the central and western regions are more closely related to monetary factors. Be sensitive to the response to the amount of credit and money supply. The fifth chapter summarizes the reasons for the regional effect of monetary policy in China's real estate market on the basis of empirical conclusions, and puts forward some policy recommendations on how to reduce the regional differences in real estate market. The article holds that the role of regional banks and urban credit cooperatives in the local economy can be strengthened by implementing a differentiated monetary policy. In order to solve the regional effect of monetary policy on the real estate market, we should strengthen the economic conduction function of interest rate in the whole country in three aspects to solve the problem that the regional development imbalance of our country affects the regional effect of monetary policy in the real estate market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 周建軍;;我國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素及其合理性研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2009年04期

2 丁健;影響上海房地產(chǎn)市場走勢的因素分析及對策思路[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;1994年01期

3 周海波;;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素的實(shí)證研究[J];海南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2009年05期

4 常海濱;徐成賢;;我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制區(qū)域差異的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2007年05期

5 宋旺;鐘正生;;我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的存在性及原因——基于最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論的分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2006年03期

6 梁云芳;高鐵梅;;中國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)區(qū)域差異的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2007年08期

7 賈卓鵬,賀向明;最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論與我國區(qū)域貨幣政策選擇[J];上海金融學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2004年03期

8 鄭威;;淺析中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異下貨幣政策的有效性[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究導(dǎo)刊;2013年06期

9 李萍;吳宇;;芻議戰(zhàn)后日本“趕超型”戰(zhàn)略的非均衡發(fā)展模式[J];日本問題研究;2006年03期

10 王先柱;;房地產(chǎn)市場貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)——基于我國31個(gè)省市的實(shí)證分析[J];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2011年10期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 安燁;中國貨幣政策效應(yīng)區(qū)域差異研究[D];東北師范大學(xué);2011年

本文編號：2277552