發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-12 11:28

【摘要】：在中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)的快速發(fā)展過(guò)程中,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題日益突出。用科學(xué)的方法反映房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變化,從而提供給市場(chǎng)主體正確的引導(dǎo)信息已變得十分迫切。住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)是反映不同時(shí)期住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格水平的變化趨勢(shì)和程度的相對(duì)數(shù)量指標(biāo),即只反映由市場(chǎng)供求和貨幣購(gòu)買(mǎi)力變化引起的價(jià)格變化,而剔除由房地產(chǎn)特征等因素改變而引起的價(jià)格變化。上海目前公布的住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)主要是在分層抽樣情況下采用平均值或者加權(quán)平均值的方法編制的。單純采用平均值的方法編制房產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)忽略了房產(chǎn)屬性特征的變化對(duì)價(jià)格指數(shù)的影響,筆者通過(guò)分析認(rèn)為使用結(jié)合特征價(jià)格模型,采用典型房比較法作為上海住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法。本文在分析與探討了制定住房指數(shù)編制需要解決的問(wèn)題、發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家關(guān)于住房指數(shù)理論的研究成果、我國(guó)目前住房指數(shù)的現(xiàn)狀及其特點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,著重探討了現(xiàn)今國(guó)際上幾種廣泛應(yīng)用的指數(shù)編制方法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和局限性。通過(guò)借鑒國(guó)外比較完善的指數(shù)編制方法,分析影響上海住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的主要特征因素,結(jié)合上海這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮,人口數(shù)量龐大,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展的國(guó)際化大城市的特點(diǎn),提出了一種改進(jìn)的住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)方案,作為對(duì)于現(xiàn)有上海住房指數(shù)系統(tǒng)的補(bǔ)充和完善。并以上海市普通住宅的存量房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)的編制為例制定了具體的完善上海住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)系統(tǒng)的方案,為預(yù)測(cè)上海住房?jī)r(jià)格走勢(shì)提供了比較科學(xué)的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In the process of rapid development of real estate in China, the risk problem of real estate industry is increasingly prominent. It is very urgent to reflect the change of real estate price by scientific method, so as to provide the correct guiding information to the main body of the market. The housing price index is a relative quantitative indicator that reflects the trend and extent of changes in the price level of the housing market over different periods, that is, only the price changes caused by changes in the market supply and demand and the purchasing power of money. Excluding the real estate characteristics and other factors caused by the price changes. The housing price index currently published in Shanghai is mainly compiled by means of average or weighted average in the case of stratified sampling. Using the method of average value to compile the real estate price index ignores the influence of the change of the property characteristics on the price index. The author thinks that the combined feature price model is used through the analysis. The typical housing comparison method is used as the calculation method of Shanghai housing price index. This paper analyzes and discusses the problems to be solved in the formulation of housing index, the research results of developed countries on housing index theory, the present situation and characteristics of housing index in China. The advantages and limitations of several widely used index compilation methods in the world are emphatically discussed. By referring to the relatively perfect index compilation method of foreign countries, this paper analyzes the main characteristic factors that affect the price of housing market in Shanghai, and combines the characteristics of Shanghai, which is an international city with a prosperous economy, a large population and a booming real estate industry. An improved housing price index scheme is proposed as a supplement to the existing housing index system in Shanghai. Taking the compilation of stock house price index of ordinary residential buildings in Shanghai as an example, a concrete scheme of perfecting Shanghai housing price index system is formulated, which provides a scientific basis for forecasting the trend of housing price in Shanghai.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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本文編號(hào)：2238867