【摘要】：商業(yè)地產(chǎn)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r是一個(gè)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的縮影。近年來(lái)，雖然住宅地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)瘋狂的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭被國(guó)家連續(xù)出臺(tái)的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策所嚴(yán)重抑制，但是投資需求卻依然旺盛，開發(fā)商為了尋找新的出路，紛紛將目光轉(zhuǎn)向商業(yè)地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，這使得商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資掀起了新的熱潮。該領(lǐng)域的專家認(rèn)為，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)并不存在剛性需求，相對(duì)于住宅地產(chǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，其投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高一些，過(guò)度的投資也只會(huì)催生出下一個(gè)“泡沫”，對(duì)區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成嚴(yán)重的危害。太原作為山西省省會(huì)城市，近些年經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，城市建設(shè)步伐進(jìn)一步加快，無(wú)疑給商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展注入極大的活力，也為太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資提供了良好的機(jī)會(huì)。為此，研究太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模影響因素，預(yù)測(cè)短期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，確定合理的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模，具有十分重要的意義。 本文研究的主要目的是通過(guò)運(yùn)用主成分分析法、多元線性回歸模型、以及ARIMA模型，對(duì)太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析和預(yù)測(cè)，探索商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模影響因素的分析方法，從而豐富和發(fā)展上述理論和方法的應(yīng)用體系，為政府相關(guān)部門和企業(yè)做出科學(xué)的決策提供一些依據(jù)。 因此，本文將太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模作為研究對(duì)象，首先研究了商業(yè)地產(chǎn)以及投資規(guī)模相關(guān)的概念和理論，，分析了太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及存在的問(wèn)題；其次根據(jù)相關(guān)理論找出可統(tǒng)計(jì)和量化的太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模的影響因素，建立影響因素指標(biāo)體系，對(duì)太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模的影響因素進(jìn)行主成分分析，并根據(jù)其影響商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模程度的大小來(lái)進(jìn)行排序，得到影響太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模的四個(gè)主要因素，即城市發(fā)展水平、本地商業(yè)地產(chǎn)供求水平、本地行政化水平和本地居民的生活水平；然后通過(guò)多元線性回歸模型和ARIMA模型對(duì)太原市未來(lái)三年的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，得出太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在未來(lái)幾年來(lái)仍然會(huì)取得較快發(fā)展，在短期之內(nèi)其投資規(guī)模將會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出持續(xù)上升的趨勢(shì)；最后，針對(duì)太原市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資現(xiàn)狀和近期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)卣头康禺a(chǎn)企業(yè)今后如何保持商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的良好發(fā)展提出相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Commercial real estate development is the epitome of a city's economic development. In recent years, although the crazy growth momentum of the residential real estate market has been severely suppressed by the state's successive real estate regulation and control policies, but the investment demand is still strong, developers are looking for a new way out. Turn to the commercial real estate field one after another, this makes the commercial real estate investment set off a new upsurge. Experts in this field believe that there is no rigid demand in the commercial real estate market, that its investment risk is higher than residential property, and that excessive investment will only create the next "bubble". To the region's economic development caused serious harm. Taiyuan, as the capital city of Shanxi Province, has been developing rapidly in recent years, and the pace of urban construction has been further accelerated. It has undoubtedly injected great vitality into the development of commercial real estate and provided a good opportunity for the investment of commercial real estate in Taiyuan. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the factors affecting the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, to predict the short-term development trend and to determine the reasonable scale of commercial real estate investment. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the development trend of commercial real estate investment scale in Taiyuan by using principal component analysis, multivariate linear regression model and ARIMA model. In order to enrich and develop the application system of the above theories and methods, this paper explores the analysis methods of the influencing factors of the scale of commercial real estate investment, and provides some basis for the relevant government departments and enterprises to make scientific decisions. Therefore, this paper takes the investment scale of commercial real estate in Taiyuan as the object of study. Firstly, it studies the concept and theory of commercial real estate and investment scale, and analyzes the development status and existing problems of commercial real estate in Taiyuan. Secondly, according to the relevant theory to find out the statistical and quantifiable influencing factors of the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, establish the index system of the influencing factors, and carry on the principal component analysis to the influencing factors of the scale of the commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan. According to the degree of commercial real estate investment, the paper gets the four main factors that affect the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, that is, the level of urban development, the level of supply and demand of local commercial real estate. The level of local administration and the standard of living of local residents, and then forecast the development trend of commercial real estate investment scale in Taiyuan in the next three years through multiple linear regression model and ARIMA model. It is concluded that the commercial real estate industry in Taiyuan will still make rapid development in the next few years, and its investment scale will continue to rise in the short term. Finally, aiming at the current situation and recent development trend of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, To the local government and real estate enterprises in the future how to maintain the good development of commercial real estate put forward relevant suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27

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本文編號(hào)：2234770