【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是關(guān)系到國計民生的重要產(chǎn)業(yè),其發(fā)展與宏觀經(jīng)濟、政策法規(guī)以及土地市場等多方面因素息息相關(guān),全面合理地分析房地產(chǎn)市場的空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng),加強對房地產(chǎn)價格形成機理的研究,有助于更好地把握我國房地產(chǎn)市場價格整體走勢,同時為政府宏觀調(diào)控政策的制定提供理論依據(jù)。 本文運用單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析以及方差分解分析方法從區(qū)域間、區(qū)域內(nèi)部以及城市內(nèi)部三個層面對我國住房價格空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)進行了分析。 研究結(jié)果表明,住房價格空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)在我國普遍存在,但是不同層面的表現(xiàn)形式有所不同。在區(qū)域間這一層面,空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)體現(xiàn)為深圳傳導(dǎo)到北京,同時北京傳導(dǎo)到上海。在同一區(qū)域內(nèi)部,體現(xiàn)為中心城市傳導(dǎo)到周邊城市,同時地位相當?shù)某鞘虚g存在雙向傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)。而以上海市不同區(qū)域為例,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)同一城市內(nèi)部由于不同區(qū)域間距離相對較近,空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)較為復(fù)雜；此外,不同于區(qū)域?qū)用婵臻g傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)體現(xiàn)為中心城市傳導(dǎo)到周邊城市,上海市市郊房價對市區(qū)房價的空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)更強。 通過理論與實證分析,本文最后從空間傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的角度對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)宏觀調(diào)控政策給出了一定的建議,并提出了研究展望。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Its development is closely related to many factors, such as macro economy, policies and regulations, land market and so on. The spatial conduction effect of the real estate market is comprehensively and reasonably analyzed. Strengthening the study on the formation mechanism of real estate price is helpful to better grasp the overall trend of real estate market price in our country and to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of government macro-control policy at the same time. In this paper, we use the unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis from the region, This paper analyzes the spatial conduction effect of housing price in China from three aspects: regional and urban. The results show that the spatial conduction effect of housing price exists widely in China, but the different levels of the different forms of expression. At the regional level, the effect of spatial conduction is from Shenzhen to Beijing and Beijing to Shanghai. Within the same region, the central city is transmitted to the surrounding city, and the two-way conduction effect exists among the cities with the same status. Taking different regions of Shanghai as an example, we find that the spatial conduction effect is more complex in the same city because the distance between different regions is relatively close. Different from the spatial conduction effect in the regional level, the spatial conduction effect of the housing price in the suburbs of Shanghai is stronger than that of the central city to the surrounding city. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finally gives some suggestions on macro-control policies of real estate industry from the perspective of spatial conduction effect, and puts forward a research prospect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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本文編號：2197944