【摘要】：隨著國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控的持續(xù)深入，傳統(tǒng)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)步入調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)型期，住宅地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)利潤(rùn)縮減，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)都使得房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方向。江西正處于城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程和產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)改造的關(guān)鍵階段，相較于傳統(tǒng)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的一次性消費(fèi)特質(zhì)，產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)的持續(xù)運(yùn)作、成本低廉的產(chǎn)品屬性，使其作為一種全新的地產(chǎn)投資類型在江西房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中逐步興起。但就目前江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資環(huán)境來(lái)看，江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)目前仍處于發(fā)展初期，在本文所界定的產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)概念中，并未出現(xiàn)較為成功的產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目案例，也暫未出現(xiàn)諸如盲目投資、定位趨同、服務(wù)類似、運(yùn)營(yíng)不善等發(fā)展問(wèn)題，但江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)仍需要科學(xué)規(guī)劃、合理運(yùn)作，借鑒成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)，才能有效避免進(jìn)入慣性發(fā)展誤區(qū)。因此，為了合理的規(guī)避投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，減少不確定性因素對(duì)投資活動(dòng)造成的影響，，使產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資能夠健康的、可持續(xù)的發(fā)展，對(duì)其投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行精確的量化研究是必不可少的。 本文旨在通過(guò)對(duì)江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行量化分析，定性分析了江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀，合理篩選江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，建立投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系，結(jié)合實(shí)例運(yùn)用AHP-CIM模型對(duì)其投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行量算，綜合定性與定量的分析，對(duì)江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展進(jìn)行展望。 文章最后提出應(yīng)對(duì)江西產(chǎn)業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的幾點(diǎn)建議：一是深入把握政策動(dòng)態(tài)，構(gòu)建產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境；二是充分考慮市場(chǎng)需求，規(guī)避市場(chǎng)供需風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；三是靈活選用融資方案，加強(qiáng)投資決策工作；四是科學(xué)選取開(kāi)發(fā)定位，合理把握運(yùn)營(yíng)節(jié)奏。
[Abstract]:With the continuous deepening of national macro-control, the traditional real estate market has stepped into the period of adjustment and transformation, the profit of residential real estate development has been reduced, and the fierce competition of commercial real estate has made the real estate enterprises change their development direction. Jiangxi is at a critical stage in the process of urbanization and industrial upgrading. Compared with the one-off consumption characteristics of traditional real estate projects, the continuous operation of industrial real estate, and the low cost attributes of products, Make it as a new type of real estate investment in Jiangxi real estate market gradually rise. However, from the point of view of the present investment environment of Jiangxi industrial real estate, Jiangxi industrial real estate is still in the early stage of development. In the concept of industrial real estate defined in this paper, there is no successful case of industrial real estate project. Such as blind investment, orientation convergence, similar service, poor operation and other development problems, but Jiangxi industrial real estate still needs scientific planning, reasonable operation, reference to successful experience, in order to effectively avoid into the error of inertia development. Therefore, in order to avoid the investment risk reasonably, reduce the influence of the uncertain factors on the investment activity and make the industrial real estate investment develop healthily and sustainably, it is necessary to carry on the accurate quantification research to its investment risk. Through the quantitative analysis of the investment risk of Jiangxi industrial real estate, this paper qualitatively analyzes the present situation of Jiangxi industrial real estate investment environment, reasonably selects the investment risk factors of Jiangxi industrial real estate, and establishes the investment risk evaluation index system. Combined with the AHP-CIM model, the paper calculates the investment risk factors and makes a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis to forecast the sustainable development of Jiangxi industrial real estate. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the risk of Jiangxi industrial real estate investment: first, to deeply grasp the policy dynamics and construct the industrial ecological environment; second, to take full account of the market demand and avoid the risk of market supply and demand; third, to choose the financing scheme flexibly. Strengthen the investment decision-making work; fourth, scientifically select the development orientation, reasonable grasp the operation rhythm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27

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