【摘要】：近幾年我國住房價格的持續(xù)升高和房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控越調(diào)越高的現(xiàn)象，顯現(xiàn)出了政府宏觀調(diào)控政策一刀切的弊端，這就要求各級政府需要更為全面的分析房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展并制定有針對性和長期性的調(diào)控政策。 依據(jù)空間計量學理論，，各研究單元的經(jīng)濟地理行為之間一般都存在某種程度的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用，并且這種關(guān)聯(lián)作用在相距較近的研究單元之間會表現(xiàn)的更為緊密，然而以往有關(guān)房價的研究或是從全國層面出發(fā)，研究的各城市相距較遠；或是從微觀層面出發(fā)研究某一地區(qū)房價，但研究往往關(guān)注城市本身房價特征而忽略了各城市間房價可能存在的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用。鑒于此，本文嘗試以陜西省各城市的住房價格為研究對象，依據(jù)波紋效應理論和空間計量學理論，以住房價格和相關(guān)經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，通過空間計量模型和相關(guān)統(tǒng)計學方法，分析陜西省省級范圍內(nèi)各城市間住房價格的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用，得出主要結(jié)論：（1）陜西省各城市住房價格持續(xù)上漲的普遍預期對住房價格上漲帶來了顯著的推升作用，而各城市城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入預期增長對住房價格上漲預期的影響較大。（2）空間相鄰特征在陜西省各城市住房價格空間關(guān)聯(lián)效應中起到了主導作用，在此基礎(chǔ)上，社會經(jīng)濟特征對其有顯著的強化作用；在社會經(jīng)濟特征中，房地產(chǎn)收益率比人均可支配收入對住房價格空間關(guān)聯(lián)的影響更顯著。（3）各城市人均GDP、土地出讓價格、年度竣工房屋面積是各城市自身住房價格的內(nèi)在穩(wěn)定影響因素，但各因素對不同城市住房價格的影響格局不同。（4）陜西省城市間住房價格出現(xiàn)了周邊城市推升中心城市房價的不同一般的倒置傳導關(guān)系。 進而，本文提出針對陜北-關(guān)中-陜南三大板塊獨特的地理位置和房價空間傳導路徑，應結(jié)合各因素的影響格局來協(xié)調(diào)中心城市與周邊城市的住房價格控制。同時，把控好人均GDP、土地出讓價格、年度竣工房屋面積等影響城市住房價格的內(nèi)在影響因素，減少對于住房價格上漲的預期。本研究的結(jié)論及建議對市級政府制定地區(qū)房價調(diào)控細則、省級政府建立跨城市的住房市場干預協(xié)調(diào)機制都具有重要的參考意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous rise in housing prices and the increasing adjustment and control of real estate in our country have revealed the shortcomings of the government's macro-control policies across the board. This requires governments at all levels to analyze the development of the real estate market more comprehensively and formulate targeted and long-term regulation and control policies. According to the theory of spatial metrology, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the economic and geographical behaviors of each research unit, and this kind of correlation is more closely related to the closer research unit. However, previous studies on housing prices have been conducted either at the national level, where the cities studied are far apart, or at the micro level, where housing prices in a given region are studied. However, the study often pays attention to the characteristics of the housing price and ignores the possible spatial correlation between the cities. In view of this, this paper tries to take the housing price of the cities in Shaanxi Province as the research object, according to the corrugated effect theory and the spatial metrology theory, based on the housing price and the related economic data, through the spatial econometric model and the correlation statistical method. Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in Shaanxi Province, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the common expectation that housing prices continue to rise in various cities in Shaanxi Province has brought about a significant upward impact on housing prices. However, the expected increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents has a great impact on the expectation of housing price increase. (2) Spatial adjacent characteristics play a leading role in the spatial correlation effect of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, In the social and economic characteristics, the real estate return rate has a more significant impact on the spatial correlation of housing prices than the per capita disposable income. (3) per capita GDP, land transfer prices, The area of houses completed each year is the internal stable influence factor of each city's own housing price. However, the influence patterns of different factors on housing prices in different cities are different. (4) the housing prices between cities in Shaanxi Province appear different general inverted conduction relationship between the surrounding cities to push up the housing prices in central cities. Furthermore, this paper puts forward that the housing price control should be coordinated between the central city and the surrounding city according to the unique geographical location and the space conduction path of housing price in the three major plates of North Shaanxi-Guanzhong-South Shaanxi. At the same time, control the per capita GDP, land transfer price, annual completed housing area and other factors affecting urban housing prices, reduce the expectation of housing price rise. The conclusions and suggestions of this study are of great significance for the municipal government to formulate the regulation rules of regional housing prices and the provincial governments to establish the coordination mechanism of intercity housing market intervention.
【學位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李進濤;李紅波;;珠三角城市住宅價格空間傳導與趨同研究[J];重慶大學學報(社會科學版);2011年06期

2 王松濤;楊贊;劉洪玉;;我國區(qū)域市場城市房價互動關(guān)系的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2008年06期

3 覃博;范美燕;焦楠;;武漢城市圈住宅價格傳導路徑分析[J];當代經(jīng)濟;2011年17期

4 位志宇;楊忠直;;長三角房價變化的生態(tài)共生性研究——基于上海、杭州和南京的實證[J];當代經(jīng)濟管理;2007年02期

5 方曉萍;丁四保;;中國城市住房價格的地理擴散及其區(qū)域外部性問題[J];地理科學;2012年02期

6 張淑蓮;張紅兵;王琴;;環(huán)渤海區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價格波動傳遞機制的實證研究[J];河北大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2011年03期

7 張金牡;劉彪;吳波;詹錫蘭;;應用改進的時空地理加權(quán)模型分析城市住宅價格變化[J];東華理工大學學報(自然科學版);2010年01期

8 沈悅,劉洪玉;住宅價格與經(jīng)濟基本面:1995—2002年中國14城市的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2004年06期

9 劉貴文;王麗娟;;城市住房價格影響因素及其空間規(guī)律研究——基于地理加權(quán)回歸模型的實證分析[J];技術(shù)經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2013年09期

10 吳玉鳴;;空間計量經(jīng)濟模型在省域研發(fā)與創(chuàng)新中的應用研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究;2006年05期

本文編號：2184849