預(yù)期視角下城市商品住房價(jià)格形成機(jī)制研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-28 14:39
【摘要】：隨著改革開放推進(jìn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市商品住房市場迅速發(fā)展壯大,與此同時(shí)房價(jià)也在迅速增長,某些城市甚至以每年2%的速度遞增,“房價(jià)上漲過快”問題一直困擾著城市商品住房市場的發(fā)展。房價(jià)的虛高給居民帶來了沉重的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力,使許多居民“望房興嘆”。近年來國家相繼出臺(tái)了國五條、國八條等調(diào)控政策,但種種跡象表明,城市商品住房價(jià)格仍舊持續(xù)增長、居高不下,出現(xiàn)樓市泡沫趨勢,嚴(yán)重給整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)帶來不穩(wěn)定因素。房價(jià)作為城市商品住房市場發(fā)展最直接的指標(biāo),其變動(dòng)已成為社會(huì)高度關(guān)注的問題。 由于城市商品住房價(jià)格的形成是市場參與主體綜合作用的結(jié)果。而城市商品住房市場的壟斷性以及其社會(huì)屬性和資本屬性的特點(diǎn),決定了其價(jià)格預(yù)期在商品住房市場決策中的重要地位,行為主體的預(yù)期與城市商品住房市場運(yùn)行尤其相關(guān)。針對現(xiàn)有的研究大多數(shù)是基于開發(fā)商或者消費(fèi)者一方利益分析的,因此,本文試圖從兼顧開發(fā)商和消費(fèi)者利益的角度為切入點(diǎn),結(jié)合案例分析預(yù)期均衡價(jià)格的形成,從而對研究城市商品住房價(jià)格形成機(jī)制提出了新思路,對于保持房價(jià)的平穩(wěn)合理發(fā)展,解決城市商品住房的發(fā)展問題,促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)健康和諧發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文在梳理國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上從預(yù)期的角度出發(fā)對城市商品住房市場價(jià)格形成機(jī)制進(jìn)行分析研究。首先從城市商品住房價(jià)格形成的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行分析,明確了城市商品住房價(jià)格的概念及其特征,并描述了價(jià)格形成過程和對現(xiàn)有估價(jià)方法進(jìn)行闡述。分析了城市商品住房價(jià)格形成機(jī)制的現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題,以及產(chǎn)生這些問題的原因。在此基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)供求理論、均衡價(jià)格理論,提出從開發(fā)商和消費(fèi)者的角度構(gòu)建模型求得均衡價(jià)格的解決思路。其次,運(yùn)用典型的交易案例對城市商品住房價(jià)格形成進(jìn)行研究和展示。分析了交易案例的相關(guān)信息和市場背景情況,對城市商品住房價(jià)格形成的主要影響因素進(jìn)行分析,同時(shí)從市場交易參與者的開發(fā)商、消費(fèi)者、政府和金融機(jī)構(gòu)主體角度下分析了其價(jià)格形成的主體影響因素,提出基于重要影響因素前提下的估價(jià)策略。最后,從開發(fā)商和消費(fèi)者角度對城市商品住房價(jià)格研究確定了交易的均衡價(jià)格,并證明了該模型的可行性和合理性。 本文的研究對于完善城市商品住房價(jià)格形成的評估實(shí)現(xiàn)均衡價(jià)格具有較強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,豐富和發(fā)展了城市商品住房價(jià)格形成機(jī)制理論。但由于受到各種主客觀因素影響,本文的研究還存在一些問題和漏洞,還需要今后進(jìn)一步研究和拓展。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of reform and opening up and the rapid development of the economy, the urban commodity housing market has grown rapidly. At the same time, housing prices are also growing rapidly, and some cities have even increased at the rate of 2% per year. The problem of "house price rising too fast" has been puzzling the development of urban commodity housing market. The false high housing prices brought heavy economic pressure to residents, so that many residents "looking for a room sigh." In recent years, the state has introduced five, eight, and other regulatory policies, but various signs show that the prices of urban commodity housing are still rising, high, the bubble trend of the real estate market, serious to the entire economic and social instability factors. As the most direct indicator of the development of urban commodity housing market, the change of house price has become a highly concerned issue. The formation of urban commodity housing price is the result of market participation. The monopoly of the urban commodity housing market and the characteristics of its social and capital attributes determine the important position of its price expectation in the decision-making of the commodity housing market, and the expectation of the behavior subject is especially relevant to the operation of the urban commodity housing market. Most of the existing research is based on the interests of developers or consumers, so this paper tries to consider the interests of developers and consumers as a starting point, combined with a case study of the formation of expected equilibrium price. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing prices, to maintain the stable and reasonable development of housing prices, to solve the problems of the development of urban commodity housing, and to promote the healthy and harmonious development of real estate. On the basis of combing the literature at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and studies the price formation mechanism of urban commodity housing market from the perspective of expectation. Firstly, this paper analyzes the theory of the formation of urban commodity housing price, clarifies the concept and characteristics of urban commodity housing price, describes the process of price formation and expounds the existing valuation methods. This paper analyzes the present situation, existing problems and causes of the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing price. On this basis, according to the theory of supply and demand and the theory of equilibrium price, the author puts forward the solution of constructing the model from the angle of developer and consumer. Secondly, the paper studies and demonstrates the formation of urban commodity housing price with typical transaction cases. This paper analyzes the relevant information and market background of the transaction case, analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of the housing price of urban commodities, and analyzes the developers and consumers of the participants in the market transaction. From the perspective of government and financial institutions, this paper analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of price, and puts forward the valuation strategy based on the premise of important influence factors. Finally, the equilibrium price of the transaction is determined from the point of view of the developer and the consumer, and the feasibility and rationality of the model are proved. The research in this paper has a strong practical significance for perfecting the evaluation of the formation of urban commodity housing price and realizing the equilibrium price. It enriches and develops the theory of the formation mechanism of the urban commodity housing price. However, due to the influence of various subjective and objective factors, there are still some problems and loopholes in the study of this paper, which need further study and development in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.5
本文編號(hào)：2150561
[Abstract]:With the promotion of reform and opening up and the rapid development of the economy, the urban commodity housing market has grown rapidly. At the same time, housing prices are also growing rapidly, and some cities have even increased at the rate of 2% per year. The problem of "house price rising too fast" has been puzzling the development of urban commodity housing market. The false high housing prices brought heavy economic pressure to residents, so that many residents "looking for a room sigh." In recent years, the state has introduced five, eight, and other regulatory policies, but various signs show that the prices of urban commodity housing are still rising, high, the bubble trend of the real estate market, serious to the entire economic and social instability factors. As the most direct indicator of the development of urban commodity housing market, the change of house price has become a highly concerned issue. The formation of urban commodity housing price is the result of market participation. The monopoly of the urban commodity housing market and the characteristics of its social and capital attributes determine the important position of its price expectation in the decision-making of the commodity housing market, and the expectation of the behavior subject is especially relevant to the operation of the urban commodity housing market. Most of the existing research is based on the interests of developers or consumers, so this paper tries to consider the interests of developers and consumers as a starting point, combined with a case study of the formation of expected equilibrium price. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing prices, to maintain the stable and reasonable development of housing prices, to solve the problems of the development of urban commodity housing, and to promote the healthy and harmonious development of real estate. On the basis of combing the literature at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and studies the price formation mechanism of urban commodity housing market from the perspective of expectation. Firstly, this paper analyzes the theory of the formation of urban commodity housing price, clarifies the concept and characteristics of urban commodity housing price, describes the process of price formation and expounds the existing valuation methods. This paper analyzes the present situation, existing problems and causes of the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing price. On this basis, according to the theory of supply and demand and the theory of equilibrium price, the author puts forward the solution of constructing the model from the angle of developer and consumer. Secondly, the paper studies and demonstrates the formation of urban commodity housing price with typical transaction cases. This paper analyzes the relevant information and market background of the transaction case, analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of the housing price of urban commodities, and analyzes the developers and consumers of the participants in the market transaction. From the perspective of government and financial institutions, this paper analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of price, and puts forward the valuation strategy based on the premise of important influence factors. Finally, the equilibrium price of the transaction is determined from the point of view of the developer and the consumer, and the feasibility and rationality of the model are proved. The research in this paper has a strong practical significance for perfecting the evaluation of the formation of urban commodity housing price and realizing the equilibrium price. It enriches and develops the theory of the formation mechanism of the urban commodity housing price. However, due to the influence of various subjective and objective factors, there are still some problems and loopholes in the study of this paper, which need further study and development in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.5
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