【摘要】：建筑是城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施中的重要組成部分,其不僅為人類提供生產(chǎn)和生活居住服務(wù),同時(shí)也因其消耗大量的建筑物質(zhì)以及相應(yīng)的能源,對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。從物質(zhì)代謝角度研究建筑存量的動(dòng)態(tài)變化及其產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境影響,有助于探尋解決城市生態(tài)環(huán)境、資源利用以及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)等各種城市問(wèn)題的途徑。本文聚焦中國(guó)省級(jí)尺度的建筑存量與流量變化,及其產(chǎn)生的物質(zhì)和能源消耗影響,是對(duì)現(xiàn)有物質(zhì)流分析方法在區(qū)域尺度應(yīng)用研究的有力補(bǔ)充。研究結(jié)果不僅對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)建筑存量的走勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),還能分析區(qū)域差異,為制定區(qū)域差異化的管理政策提供決策依據(jù)。本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建人口隊(duì)列模型(The Cohort Component Method)與物質(zhì)流分析模型(Material Flow Analysis)相結(jié)合的研究方法,動(dòng)態(tài)模擬2010-2050年人口總量和結(jié)構(gòu)變化,在此基礎(chǔ)上定量分析并預(yù)測(cè)其未來(lái)建筑存量及流量的演變特征,并評(píng)價(jià)其對(duì)建筑材料物質(zhì)和能源消耗的影響,通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)不同區(qū)域的實(shí)證研究,還比較了不同發(fā)展政策對(duì)未來(lái)人口、建筑存量以及環(huán)境影響的效果。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)總建筑存量東部最高,其次是中部和西部。東部呈現(xiàn)緩慢增加再下降的趨勢(shì),拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)在2030年前后,而中部和西部則呈平緩增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),沒(méi)有明顯的拐點(diǎn),且西部較東部增長(zhǎng)明顯。東部城鎮(zhèn)住宅建筑存量高于鄉(xiāng)村建筑存量,而中部和西部鄉(xiāng)村的建筑存量大多高于城鎮(zhèn)建筑存量。未來(lái)西南、西北和東北區(qū)域的大部分省的人口將隨著城市化水平提高進(jìn)一步增加,由此帶動(dòng)建筑需求量持續(xù)增加。(2)住宅建筑的物質(zhì)消耗和能源消耗在2035年前后達(dá)到峰值,其中鐵、木材、磚、砂礫石、水泥和玻璃六種物質(zhì)分別為160、64、774、4088、1718、16百萬(wàn)噸,總共轉(zhuǎn)化為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤能源消耗為355百萬(wàn)噸,均大于非住宅建筑,且城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)表現(xiàn)尤為明顯。非住宅建筑產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境影響將在未來(lái)持續(xù)增大,東中西地區(qū)的拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)在2030-2040年,東部達(dá)到拐點(diǎn)的時(shí)間普遍要略早于中部和西部,西部有的省份并未出現(xiàn)明顯的拐點(diǎn),且一直處于緩慢增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),并且城鎮(zhèn)的變化趨勢(shì)較鄉(xiāng)村明顯。(3)城鎮(zhèn)化水平與建筑存量增長(zhǎng)之間呈現(xiàn)高度正相關(guān)關(guān)系,新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展是中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)發(fā)展的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。隨著未來(lái)城市化進(jìn)程推進(jìn),建筑存量將不斷擴(kuò)大,但如何盤活建筑存量,促進(jìn)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展,仍是各級(jí)政府所面臨的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。未來(lái)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將迎來(lái)低增長(zhǎng)時(shí)代,包括政府、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)等在內(nèi)的利益相關(guān)者,應(yīng)認(rèn)清形勢(shì),以選擇更穩(wěn)健、可持續(xù)的發(fā)展模式。
[Abstract]:Architecture is an important part of urban infrastructure. It not only provides production and living services for human beings, but also exerts a great impact on the ecological environment because it consumes a large amount of building materials and corresponding energy. To study the dynamic changes of building stock and its environmental impact from the point of view of material metabolism is helpful to explore the ways to solve various urban problems such as urban ecological environment, resource utilization and social economic activities. This paper focuses on the changes of building stock and flow at the provincial scale in China, and the impact of material and energy consumption, which is a powerful supplement to the existing methods of mass flow analysis at the regional scale. The results not only predict the trend of China's future building stock, but also analyze the regional differences, and provide a basis for making the management policy of regional differentiation. In this paper, a population cohort model (The Cohort Component Method) and a material flow analysis model (Material Flow Analysis) are constructed to dynamically simulate the population total and structural changes in 2010-2050. On this basis, quantitative analysis and prediction of its future building stock and flow evolution characteristics, and evaluation of its impact on the material and energy consumption of building materials, through the empirical study of different regions in China, The effects of different development policies on future population, building stock and environment are also compared. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the total building stock in the east is the highest, followed by the central and western. The eastern part showed a trend of slow increase and then decline, the inflection point appeared around 2030, while the central and western regions showed a gentle growth trend, and there was no obvious inflection point, and the western region had more obvious growth than that in the eastern part. The stock of residential buildings in eastern cities and towns is higher than that of rural buildings, while the stock of buildings in central and western villages is mostly higher than that in urban buildings. In the future, the population of most provinces in the southwest, northwest and northeast regions will further increase as the level of urbanization increases, which will lead to a continuous increase in building demand. (2) the material and energy consumption of residential buildings will peak around 2035. Among them, iron, wood, brick, sand and gravel, cement and glass are 160 million tons respectively. The total energy consumption of standard coal is 355 million tons, which is higher than that of non-residential buildings, especially in urban areas. The environmental impact of non-residential buildings will continue to increase in the future. The inflection point in the eastern and western regions appeared in 2030-2040. The time of reaching the inflection point in the east is generally slightly earlier than that in the central and western regions, and no obvious inflection point has appeared in some western provinces. The trend of urban change is more obvious than that of rural areas. (3) there is a high positive correlation between the level of urbanization and the increase of building stock. The development of new urbanization is an important driving force for the continued development of China's real estate market. With the development of urbanization in the future, the construction stock will be expanded continuously. However, how to activate the building stock and promote the steady and healthy development of macroeconomic and real estate market is still a severe challenge for all levels of government. The future real estate market will usher in a low growth era, including the government, real estate development enterprises and other stakeholders, should recognize the situation in order to choose a more stable, sustainable development model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.92;TU241

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