【摘要】：城市化是人口向城市集聚的過程,隨著我國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,我國城市化水平提高很快,2011年我國的城市化水平首次突破了50%,進入了城市化的快速發(fā)展階段,同時誘發(fā)了城市人口對住宅的需求。 安徽作為我國中部的一個省份,近年來發(fā)展很快,城市化水平逐年上升,2012年城鎮(zhèn)人口比率達到46.5%,房地產(chǎn)在安徽的投資額逐年增加。而目前,安徽的城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展水平相對較低,尚處在快速發(fā)展的起步階段。在中部崛起的背景下以及長三角城市群的帶動下,安徽省的城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?jié)摿艽�。但�?如果不有效的把握城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)律和關(guān)聯(lián),而任由兩者發(fā)展,則可能出現(xiàn)一些問題而阻礙城市化發(fā)展的質(zhì)量和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。 因此,本文首先對城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)理論進行梳理,構(gòu)建較為全面、系統(tǒng)的理論框架。其次以相關(guān)理論分析為背景,對安徽省城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)性進行定性分析。然后從橫向和縱向兩方面對兩者的關(guān)聯(lián)性進行分析：橫向方面,采用SPSS軟件,選取2010年安徽省17個市城市化和房地產(chǎn)的多個指標作為研究對象,先用主成分分析的方法提取出城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的綜合指標及得分值,再計算出房地產(chǎn)六個指標對城市化的直接通徑系數(shù)和間接通徑系數(shù)以及城市化的六個指標對房地產(chǎn)綜合指標的直接通徑系數(shù)和間接通徑系數(shù),就此得出房地產(chǎn)的各個指標對城市化的直接影響程度和間接影響程度及城市化的各個指標對房地產(chǎn)的直接影響程度和間接影響程度；縱向方面,采用Eviews軟件,選取1995-2011年安徽省城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)幾個指標的數(shù)據(jù)為研究對象,通過協(xié)整檢驗和格蘭杰因果檢驗驗證城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的因果關(guān)聯(lián)。最后,根據(jù)上述分析得出結(jié)論,并對城市化和房地產(chǎn)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出切實可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the process of population agglomeration. With the rapid development of China's economy, the level of urbanization in China has increased rapidly. In 2011, the urbanization level of our country broke through 50% for the first time, and entered the stage of rapid development of urbanization. At the same time, it induces the demand of urban population for housing. Anhui, as a province in the central part of China, has developed rapidly in recent years, and the urbanization level has been rising year by year. In 2012, the urban population ratio reached 46.5%, and the investment of real estate in Anhui increased year by year. At present, the development level of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui is relatively low, and it is still in the initial stage of rapid development. Under the background of the rise of the central region and the driving force of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province have great potential. However, if we do not effectively grasp the laws and relationships of urbanization and real estate development, and let them develop, there may be some problems that hinder the quality of urbanization development and the healthy development of real estate industry. Therefore, this paper firstly combs the related theories of urbanization and real estate industry, and constructs a more comprehensive and systematic theoretical framework. Secondly, the relevance of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province is qualitatively analyzed under the background of relevant theory analysis. Then it analyzes the relationship between them from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal aspect, SPSS software is used to select several indexes of urbanization and real estate in 17 cities of Anhui Province in 2010 as the research object. The principal component analysis (PCA) is used to extract the comprehensive index and score of urbanization and real estate. Then the direct path coefficient and indirect path coefficient of the six indexes of real estate to urbanization and the direct path coefficient and indirect path coefficient of the six indexes of urbanization to the comprehensive index of real estate are calculated. In this paper, the direct and indirect influence degree of each index of real estate on urbanization and the degree of direct and indirect influence of each index of urbanization on real estate are obtained. The data of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2011 are selected as the research object. The causality relationship between urbanization and real estate industry is verified by co-integration test and Granger causality test. Finally, the conclusion is drawn according to the above analysis, and practical policy recommendations are put forward for the coordinated development of urbanization and real estate.
【學位授予單位】：安徽大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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