本文選題：熱錢 + 規(guī)模測(cè)算��； 參考：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：熱錢作為一種短期資本，在全世界的范圍內(nèi)迅速流動(dòng)。曾經(jīng)的“墨西哥金融危機(jī)”和“東南亞金融危機(jī)”，是熱錢首次亮相于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的舞臺(tái)；后來(lái)20世紀(jì)90年代又有許多國(guó)家發(fā)生了金融危機(jī)，熱錢在其中也都扮演著非常重要的角色。熱錢作為一種特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式，其規(guī)模愈發(fā)壯大，運(yùn)作手法也愈發(fā)復(fù)雜，逐漸成為了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域一股不可小覷的力量。而隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的不斷加強(qiáng)，人民幣升值預(yù)期的不斷提升，，以及國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)、股價(jià)的越發(fā)高漲，越來(lái)越多的國(guó)際熱錢瞄準(zhǔn)了我國(guó)，鉆取各種渠道進(jìn)入我國(guó)來(lái)套利，這給我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來(lái)了重大的影響。 熱錢是一種剛剛產(chǎn)生于上一世紀(jì)的新興事物，因此關(guān)于它的研究，理論和實(shí)證領(lǐng)域都尚未完全成熟，可以說(shuō)，學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)于熱錢的有著褒貶不一的評(píng)價(jià)。熱錢具有一定的合理性，在于它畢竟是一種客觀存在的經(jīng)濟(jì)事物，其產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展具有歷史必然性；然而它也頗具危害性，它的投機(jī)本性直接導(dǎo)致了經(jīng)濟(jì)金融領(lǐng)域可能面臨劇烈的動(dòng)蕩。 在現(xiàn)在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的轉(zhuǎn)軌期內(nèi)，面對(duì)著國(guó)際金融領(lǐng)域紛繁復(fù)雜的外部環(huán)境，我們更應(yīng)該做好金融領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)管工作，而如何合理有效地解決熱錢帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題，則成為我國(guó)金融監(jiān)管工作方面的重中之重。對(duì)于熱錢給我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的的危害，我們要進(jìn)行積極的金融管制，將危害減輕至最低程度，堅(jiān)決遏制盲目的金融自由化，但對(duì)于合理的金融創(chuàng)新要予以鼓勵(lì)和支持，要充分利用熱錢帶給資本流動(dòng)和貨幣流動(dòng)的益處。 本文的研究正是針對(duì)日益增多的熱錢涌入我國(guó)所引起的一系列問(wèn)題。首先，結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于熱錢的研究現(xiàn)狀以及各種熱錢研究的經(jīng)典理論，從熱錢的概念及特征來(lái)入手；其次，分析并挖掘熱錢流入我國(guó)的動(dòng)因及路徑渠道，為后面的政策建議進(jìn)行鋪墊；再次，也是本文的核心與創(chuàng)新之處，就是總結(jié)了已有的熱錢規(guī)模的估算方法，并在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析、提出了自己總結(jié)的一種估算法，目的在于以確切的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)更為具體地說(shuō)明熱錢流入我國(guó)的規(guī)模變化，為我國(guó)的熱錢治理提供參考與依據(jù)；最后，根據(jù)近些年來(lái)我國(guó)熱錢流動(dòng)的規(guī)模情況，以及熱錢對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的積極影響及消極影響兩方面，分別從削減熱錢流動(dòng)動(dòng)力、嚴(yán)控?zé)徨X流動(dòng)渠道、加強(qiáng)熱錢投機(jī)領(lǐng)域防御等角度提出相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管政策建議。
[Abstract]:Hot money, as a short-term capital, flows rapidly around the world. The "financial crisis in Mexico" and the "financial crisis in Southeast Asia" were the first appearances of hot money on the stage of the world economy. Later, many countries experienced financial crises in the 1990s. Hot money also plays a very important role in it. As a special economic form, hot money has become a force that can not be underestimated in the field of world economy. With the continuous strengthening of our country's economic strength, the rising expectations of RMB appreciation, and the rising domestic real estate and stock prices, more and more international hot money is aimed at our country, drilling into various channels to arbitrage into our country. This brought great influence to the economic development of our country. Hot money is a new thing that has just emerged in the last century. Therefore, the research, theory and empirical field of hot money are not yet fully mature, it can be said that there are different opinions on hot money in academic circles. Hot money has certain rationality, because it is an objective economic thing after all, its emergence and development has historical inevitability, but it is also quite harmful. Its speculative nature directly led to the economic and financial sector may face severe turbulence. In the transitional period of China's economic system, facing the complicated external environment in the international financial field, we should do a good job in the supervision of the financial field, and how to solve the problems caused by hot money reasonably and effectively. Then become our country's financial supervision work in the top priority. With regard to the harm that hot money brings to the real economy of our country, we should carry out active financial control, reduce the harm to the lowest level, resolutely curb blind financial liberalization, but encourage and support reasonable financial innovation. Take full advantage of the benefits of hot money to capital and money flows. The research of this paper is aimed at a series of problems caused by the increasing hot money flowing into our country. First of all, combining the domestic and foreign research on hot money and the classic theories of various hot money research, starting with the concept and characteristics of hot money; secondly, analyzing and excavating the motivation and path channel of hot money flowing into our country. Thirdly, it is the core and innovation of this paper, which is to sum up the existing methods of estimating the scale of hot money, and use econometrics statistical software to carry on the empirical analysis on this basis. This paper puts forward a kind of estimation method summarized by oneself, the purpose of which is to explain more concretely the change of the scale of hot money flowing into our country with exact data, and to provide reference and basis for the management of hot money in our country. According to the scale of hot money flow in China in recent years, as well as the positive and negative effects of hot money on the economic development of our country, from the aspects of reducing the power of hot money flow and strictly controlling the channels of hot money flow, Strengthen the field of hot money speculation defense and other angles to put forward the corresponding regulatory policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F124

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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