本文選題：房地產價格 + 購房者預期��； 參考：《華東師范大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產既有一般商品的屬性,亦具有作為投資產品的資產屬性。作為商品,價格波動反映了供求雙方的力量對比,有利于淘汰落后的生產力；但近幾年我國房地產價格總體更多的呈現出量價齊升、量價齊跌的資本品價格特征。頻繁、劇烈的價格波動不僅直接影響了房地產行業(yè)的正常運營和國民經濟發(fā)展,更會對普通剛需購房者的心理產生沖擊,造成社會的不穩(wěn)定。本文試圖從市場主體的預期為切入點,為房地產價格波動提供新的視角和解釋,并提出相應的對策。 本文在對房地產價格形成機制相關文獻及預期對房地產價格形成作用文獻回顧后,第二章分析了市場預期對房地產價格形成的影響。首先從微觀機制介紹了預期對房價波動的一般作用,其次闡述了市場預期在房地產市場上的傳導機制,最后回顧國際上兩次重要的房地產泡沫中預期在其中的作用。 第三章對購房者預期視角下我國房地產市場的描述性分析,分別對2002—2013年房地產市場特征、消費者預期指數波動的情況及波動原因進行了描述性分析,將期間房價與購房者預期比較,發(fā)現二者之間存在明顯的聯動關系,最后總結了購房者預期影響調控效果的路徑。 第四章實證研究我國房地產價格與購房者預期的互動關系,選取2007年3月—2013年11月全國商品房平均銷售價格、消費者預期指數、工業(yè)增長量、貨幣供應量增長率的月度數據替代變量商品房價格、購房者預期、經濟增長及寬松或緊縮的貨幣政策,然后分別進行單位根檢驗、協整檢驗、Granger因果分析及脈沖響應分析。結果顯示,短期,預期不是影響房價的重要因素,但房價與預期具有長期均衡關系。購房者預期對房價波動具有放大效應,針對對房地產價格波動,中央政府傾向于采取相機的緊縮或寬松政策。 最后對本文主要結論進行了總結,從優(yōu)化預期的角度給出了幾點建議,并指出本文的不足待改進之處。
[Abstract]:Real estate has both the attributes of general commodities and assets as investment products. As a commodity, price fluctuation reflects the power contrast between supply and demand, which is conducive to the elimination of backward productive forces. Frequent and violent price fluctuations not only directly affect the normal operation of the real estate industry and the development of the national economy, but also have an impact on the psychology of ordinary rigid demand buyers, resulting in social instability. This paper tries to provide a new angle of view and explanation for the fluctuation of real estate price from the perspective of the expectation of the main body of the market, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. After reviewing the literature on the formation mechanism of real estate price and the effect of expectation on the formation of real estate price, the second chapter analyzes the influence of market expectation on the formation of real estate price. This paper first introduces the general effect of expectation on the fluctuation of house price from the micro mechanism, then expounds the conduction mechanism of market expectation in real estate market, and finally reviews the role of expectation in the two important real estate bubbles in the world. The third chapter analyzes the characteristics of the real estate market, the fluctuation of consumer expectation index and the reasons of the fluctuation in the real estate market from 2002 to 2013. By comparing the house prices with the expectations of the buyers, we find that there is an obvious linkage relationship between the two. Finally, we summarize the path that the buyers' expectations affect the effect of regulation and control. The fourth chapter empirically studies the interactive relationship between real estate prices and buyers' expectations, and selects the national average sales price of commercial housing, consumer expectation index and industrial growth from March 2007 to November 2013. The monthly data of money supply growth rate replace commodity housing prices, buyers' expectations, economic growth and loose or tight monetary policies, and then carry out unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality analysis and impulse response analysis respectively. The results show that, in the short run, expectation is not an important factor affecting house price, but the relationship between house price and expectation is long term equilibrium. Home buyers are expected to have a magnifying effect on house price volatility, and the central government is inclined to take a camera tightening or easing policy in response to real estate price volatility. Finally, the main conclusions of this paper are summarized, some suggestions are given from the point of view of optimizing expectation, and the shortcomings of this paper are pointed out.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：2086663