本文選題：貨幣供應(yīng)量 + 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格��； 參考：《廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為“第二金融”的房地產(chǎn)在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著重要的作用。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅猛，市場(chǎng)化程度不斷提高。但我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格收入比過(guò)高，購(gòu)房給居民帶來(lái)了嚴(yán)重的負(fù)擔(dān)，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在一定的泡沫。房地產(chǎn)泡沫一旦破滅，將很有可能復(fù)制日本以及東南亞當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和金融危機(jī)。引起房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格暴漲的原因錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜，國(guó)家也在不斷出臺(tái)各種政策來(lái)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行調(diào)控，但效果不明顯，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格過(guò)高的狀況仍然沒(méi)有得到根本上的改善。 國(guó)家調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的手段之一是貨幣政策工具，通過(guò)改變貨幣供應(yīng)量是實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣政策目標(biāo)的重要手段之一。本文也基于這樣的思路上探討了貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響，并分析了貨幣供應(yīng)量通過(guò)不同渠道來(lái)影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的機(jī)制。在貨幣供應(yīng)量上，本文從貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)視角，即按照我國(guó)目前的貨幣供應(yīng)量的三個(gè)層次來(lái)考察各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響，同時(shí)進(jìn)行橫向的比較它們對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的不同效果。通過(guò)選取2001年1月到2011年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù)，采用向量自回歸和向量誤差修正模型來(lái)對(duì)各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響進(jìn)行研究比較。結(jié)果表明：M2、M1、M0對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格沖擊始終為正，M2對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的沖擊影響程度相對(duì)M1、M0較大，，M1、M0對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的沖擊基本保持相同；各層次的貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的作用都存在時(shí)滯，但時(shí)滯有所不同；從協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和協(xié)整方程來(lái)看，長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格有長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)定關(guān)系，M2對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響較大，系數(shù)達(dá)到0.8406，M1對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響相對(duì)小于M2但彈性系數(shù)也達(dá)到了0.5942，M0對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響最小，但在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)彈性系數(shù)與M1幾近相同，達(dá)到0.5573。長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)各層次的貨幣供應(yīng)量存在Granger意義上的因果關(guān)系。各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的格蘭杰原因，但在短期內(nèi)M0不是引起房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的格蘭杰原因，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格不是M2、M1的格蘭杰原因。最后解釋出現(xiàn)這樣結(jié)論的原因和給出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:As the second finance, real estate plays an important role in the economic development of our country. The real estate market develops rapidly, the marketization degree unceasingly enhances. However, the ratio of real estate price to income in our country is too high, the purchase of real estate brings serious burden to the residents, and there is a certain bubble in the real estate market. If the housing bubble bursts, it is likely to replicate the economic and financial crises of Japan and Southeast Asia. The causes of the soaring real estate prices are complicated, and the government has been issuing various policies to regulate the real estate market, but the effect is not obvious, the real estate prices too high still has not been fundamentally improved. One of the measures to control the real estate price is the monetary policy tool, and changing the money supply is one of the important means to achieve the monetary policy goal. This paper also discusses the influence of money supply on real estate price based on this idea, and analyzes the mechanism of money supply influencing real estate market through different channels. In terms of money supply, this paper examines the influence of money supply on real estate prices from the point of view of money structure, that is, according to the three levels of money supply in our country. At the same time, the horizontal comparison of their impact on real estate prices different effects. Based on the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2011, vector autoregressive model and vector error correction model are used to study and compare the effects of money supply on real estate prices at different levels. The results show that the impact of M2M1M0 on real estate price is always the same as that of M1M0 larger than M1M0, and the impact of M1M0 on real estate price remains the same. The effect of money supply at all levels on real estate prices has time delay, but the time lag is different. From the co-integration test and cointegration equation, in the long run, There is a long-term stable relationship between money supply and real estate price at all levels. M 2 has a great influence on real estate price. The influence of coefficient 0.8406N M1 on real estate price is relatively smaller than M2, but elasticity coefficient is 0.5942 M0, which has the least effect on real estate price. But in the long run the elastic coefficient is almost the same as M1, reaching 0.5573. In the long run, real estate prices have a Granger causality to money supply at all levels. Money supply at all levels is the Granger cause of real estate price in the long run, but in the short term M0 is not the Granger cause of real estate price change, and real estate price is not Granger reason of M2CM1. Finally, explain the reasons for this conclusion and give the relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23;F822.2

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