本文選題：利率 + 國房景氣指數(shù)��； 參考：《河北工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年住房分配制度改革后我國房地產(chǎn)市場有了迅速的發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱，對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有相當(dāng)大的促進(jìn)作用。我國的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著廣闊前景和良好機(jī)遇，同時，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在發(fā)展過程中也體現(xiàn)出了一些特征：一方面，房地產(chǎn)市場逐漸趨于健康和理性。另一方面，可以看出目前政府政策對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響非常大。從2005年的“國八條”到2013年的“國五條”，政府對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的一系列宏觀調(diào)控政策，絕對不是要打壓或抑制房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，相反，國家完全是為了引導(dǎo)和扶植房地產(chǎn)業(yè)更好地，健康地發(fā)展。隨著利率市場化程度的逐步提高，利率政策作為一項非常重要的貨幣政策宏觀調(diào)控的方式，近年來一直是國家政府對房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控的一種重要手段，利率作為一種調(diào)控杠桿對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響有必要重新審視。 本文運用理論分析和實證分析相結(jié)合的方法研究了利率變動對國房景氣指數(shù)的影響，并且具體分析了利率變動對國房景氣分類指數(shù)的影響，對于研究利率對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響，進(jìn)而對國家宏觀調(diào)控政策中的利率政策提出相關(guān)意見，使房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康持續(xù)的發(fā)展具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 首先，在理論分析部分，通過分析利率變動對房地產(chǎn)供求兩大相關(guān)主體的影響，定性的分析出利率變動對國房景氣指數(shù)存在著影響，并且二者之間的關(guān)系較復(fù)雜。其次，在實證分析部分，先通過VAR模型下的Granger因果性檢驗、平穩(wěn)性檢驗以及協(xié)整檢驗方法分析國房景氣指數(shù)的主要影響因素即利率、居民消費價格指數(shù)、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、貨幣供應(yīng)量、土地購置價格對國房景氣指數(shù)的影響，得到利率的變動對國房景氣指數(shù)有顯著影響；然后分析不同期貸款利率分別對國房景氣分類指數(shù)的影響得出，利率變動對國房景氣指數(shù)的影響是顯著的，利率通過對國房景氣分類指數(shù)的影響來間接影響國房景氣指數(shù)。其中對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資影響最大的是三至五年期貸款利率。對本年資金來源影響最大的是一年期貸款利率。對土地開發(fā)面積影響最大的是五年以上期貸款利率。對商品房空置面積影響最大的是五年以上期貸款利率。對房屋施工面積影響最大的是五年以上期貸款利率。對商品房銷售價格影響最大的是一年期貸款利率。因此想要提高國房景氣分類指數(shù)就可以通過調(diào)整相應(yīng)的利率即可達(dá)到。綜合來講，，對國房景氣指數(shù)影響最大的是五年以上期的貸款利率，即長期利率。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing distribution system in 1998, China's real estate market has developed rapidly. As a pillar of national economy, real estate industry plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. The development of real estate industry in China is faced with broad prospects and good opportunities. At the same time, the real estate industry has some characteristics in the process of development: on the one hand, the real estate market tends to be healthy and rational. On the other hand, we can see that the impact of government policies on the real estate market is very large. From the "eight articles" of 2005 to the "five articles of the State" in 2013, a series of macro-control policies of the government on the development of the real estate industry are absolutely not intended to suppress or suppress the development of the real estate industry. On the contrary, The country is completely in order to guide and foster the real estate industry better, healthy development. With the gradual improvement of interest rate marketization, interest rate policy as a very important way of monetary policy macro-control, in recent years has been a national government to the development of the real estate market macro-control of an important means. Interest rate as a kind of control lever on the development of real estate need to be re-examined. In this paper, the influence of interest rate change on national housing boom index is studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and the impact of interest rate change on national housing boom index is analyzed in detail. It is of practical significance to study the influence of interest rate on the development of real estate industry, and then to put forward relevant opinions on the interest rate policy in the national macro-control policy, so as to make the real estate industry develop healthily and continuously. First of all, in the theoretical analysis part, by analyzing the influence of the interest rate change on the real estate supply and demand, the qualitative analysis shows that the change of interest rate has an impact on the national housing boom index, and the relationship between the two is more complex. Secondly, in the empirical analysis part, through the Granger causality test, the stationary test and the cointegration test under the VAR model, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the national housing boom index, that is, interest rate, consumer price index, GDP. The influence of money supply and land purchase price on the national housing boom index, the change of interest rate has a significant impact on the national housing boom index; and then the impact of loan interest rates on the national housing boom index is analyzed respectively in different periods. The influence of interest rate change on the national housing boom index is significant, and the interest rate indirectly affects the national housing boom index through the influence of the interest rate on the national housing boom index. Among them, the biggest impact on real estate investment is the three-to-five-year loan interest rate. The most important source of funds this year is the one-year loan interest rate. The biggest impact on the land development area is the interest rate on the five-year loan. The biggest impact on the vacant area of commercial housing is the interest rate on loans in the last five years. The biggest impact on the housing construction area is five-year loan interest rate. The biggest impact on the sale price of commercial housing is one-year loan interest rate. So to improve the housing boom sub-index can be achieved by adjusting the corresponding interest rate. To sum up, the biggest impact on the housing boom index is the five-year loan rate, that is, long-term interest rates.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F822.0

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