本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 健康發(fā)展��； 參考：《海南大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要產(chǎn)業(yè),相關研究表明,與它密切相關的產(chǎn)業(yè)多達60個,一旦出現(xiàn)大的波動,就會牽連其他相關產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,因此,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展對國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展至關重要。2010年元月“國際旅游島”建設正式上升為國家戰(zhàn)略,這一誘因促使海南房地產(chǎn)市場出現(xiàn)“井噴”。面對房價的飛速增長,除了必要的政策法規(guī)約束之外,更加迫切需要建立預警機制對海南房地產(chǎn)市場健康狀況進行檢測評價,以提前應對房地產(chǎn)市場出現(xiàn)的各種不利因素,促進房地產(chǎn)市場朝向合理、健康、平穩(wěn)的道路發(fā)展。 通過對比研究發(fā)現(xiàn),國內(nèi)外目前關于房地產(chǎn)預警機制測算方法有三種：景氣循環(huán)法、系統(tǒng)模型法和綜合模擬法。考慮到景氣循環(huán)法對環(huán)境要求較高,而在房地產(chǎn)市場本來就龐雜的情況下采用系統(tǒng)模型法又比較困難和復雜,因此,綜合考慮各方面因素,在海南采用綜合模擬法構建房地產(chǎn)預警機制較為合適。 綜合模擬法基本思路：依據(jù)指標體系全面性、簡捷性、穩(wěn)定性、實用性、區(qū)域性原則,結合區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)預警指標體系選取標準,構建一套能夠反映地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場的較為合理完善的指標體系；在指標體系基礎上,通過該方法確定具體的衡量標準,結合地方房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展狀況,判斷實際指標數(shù)值是否超出健康發(fā)展區(qū)間；若超出健康區(qū)間,則發(fā)出預警信號,并對房地產(chǎn)市場未來走勢做出判斷。 通過梳理海南房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程,把握海南房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展環(huán)境的特殊性,構建一套符合海南房地產(chǎn)健康狀況判斷標準的指標體系來定量分析海南房地產(chǎn)市場的健康狀況,并運用指數(shù)平滑法預測2013年各指標數(shù)據(jù),以期對海南房地產(chǎn)未來發(fā)展做出有效預警,是有理論與實際意義的。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important industry in the development of national economy. Related studies show that there are as many as 60 industries closely related to it. Once there is a big fluctuation, it will involve the development of other related industries. The healthy development of the real estate industry is very important to the development of the national economy. In January 2010, the construction of the "International Tourism Island" rose to the national strategy, which prompted the Hainan real estate market to appear "blowout". In the face of the rapid growth of house prices, in addition to the necessary policy and regulation constraints, it is more urgent to establish an early warning mechanism to detect and evaluate the health status of Hainan's real estate market in order to deal with all kinds of adverse factors in the real estate market ahead of time. Promote the real estate market towards a reasonable, healthy, stable road development. Through the comparative study, it is found that there are three methods for calculating the early warning mechanism of real estate at home and abroad: boom cycle method, system model method and comprehensive simulation method. Considering the relatively high environmental requirements of the boom cycle approach and the difficulty and complexity of adopting the system model approach when the real estate market is already a complex one, it is therefore a comprehensive consideration of various factors, It is more appropriate to construct real estate early warning mechanism by comprehensive simulation method in Hainan. The basic idea of comprehensive simulation method: according to the index system comprehensiveness, simplicity, stability, practicability, regional principle, combined with the regional real estate early warning index system selection criteria, Build a set of reasonable and perfect index system which can reflect the regional real estate market, on the basis of the index system, determine the concrete measure standard through this method, combine the development condition of the local real estate market, Determine whether the actual indicator value exceeds the healthy development range; if it exceeds the healthy range, send an early warning signal and make a judgment on the future trend of the real estate market. Through combing the development course of Hainan real estate industry, grasping the particularity of Hainan real estate market development environment, constructing a set of index system that accords with Hainan real estate health condition judgment standard to quantitatively analyze Hainan real estate market health condition. It is of theoretical and practical significance to use the exponential smoothing method to predict the data of every index in 2013 in order to make an effective early warning for the future development of Hainan real estate.
【學位授予單位】：海南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.27

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