本文選題：項目風險管理 + 德爾菲法��； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展,并逐步從一個新興的產(chǎn)業(yè),逐漸成為國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),為國民經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)和快速發(fā)展提供了強大地推動力。但由于房價過高凸顯出的矛盾,國家和地方政府開始對房地產(chǎn)政策進行不斷的調(diào)整,使得目前的整個房地產(chǎn)業(yè)都處在一個巨大的調(diào)整時期,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的發(fā)展過程中面臨著前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。并且因為我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)本身具有開發(fā)周期長、投資規(guī)模大、建設(shè)不規(guī)范、驗收不嚴格、開發(fā)過程環(huán)節(jié)多,涉及面廣等特點,使它成為一種既是需要巨大的初始投資以及風險程度很高的行業(yè),又是回報特別顯著的行業(yè),這就決定了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)過程中會面臨很多的不確定性,因此必須對房地產(chǎn)項目進行風險分析和經(jīng)濟評價,通過科學而有效風險管理過程,識別房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)面臨風險,分析已識別風險發(fā)生幾率和危害程度,進而制定有效的措施對風險進行有力的控制和防范,最終達到有效的降低風險發(fā)生可能給房地產(chǎn)項目帶來損失目的,提高項目競爭能力和盈利能力。本文嘗試將風險管理的相關(guān)理論應(yīng)用到具體和實際的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目中,通過詳細和全面的總結(jié)項目風險管理理論,選擇合適的項目管理評價方法,嚴格按照項目風險管理的流程,結(jié)合卓越世紀中心建設(shè)項目的具體情況,對其進行具體、全面的風險管理分析和研究,旨在使卓越世紀中心項目獲得成功。第一部分主要介紹了項目風險管理理論的相關(guān)背景和國內(nèi)外研究的現(xiàn)狀等基本內(nèi)容,介紹文章主要目的和框架；第二部分主要介紹項目風險管理的理論基礎(chǔ),并對風險管理方法進行詳細介紹,包括項目風險管理的具體過程以及項目風險管理過程中運用到的各種評價方法,如德爾菲法、層次分析法等；第三部分介紹了卓越世紀中心項目的基本概況,包括項目的地理位置,項目周邊的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境、項目的實際規(guī)劃和建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀等情況作簡要概述；第四部分主要介紹了項目風險識別的依據(jù),并運用德爾菲法對該項目風險進行識別,然后對識別出的項目風險進行評估,評估各種風險發(fā)生的概率以及發(fā)生后可能造成損失的程度；第五部分重點對識別出來的項目質(zhì)量風險、進度風險、經(jīng)濟風險和技術(shù)風險運用層次分析法,建立指標體系、構(gòu)造判斷矩陣進行風險評價,得出每個具體風險事件在整個風險中的權(quán)重,為控制風險提供可靠、真實的依據(jù)。第六部分主要是在前文風險識別和評價的基礎(chǔ)上有針對性的提出房地產(chǎn)控制風險發(fā)生的對策建議和應(yīng)對措施,為項目風險管理鋪墊基石。第七部分是結(jié)論與展望.本文研究結(jié)果不僅對開發(fā)商的投資決策具有重要意義,也期望對今后類似的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風險管理研究及實踐提供借鑒,再結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)自身特點和不確定性強的基礎(chǔ)上,加強風險防范意識,提高卓越世紀中心項目的抗風險能力,減少風險造成的損失,提高項目盈利能力和競爭能力,確保項目的成功。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly and gradually becomes an important pillar industry in the development of national economy gradually from a new industry, which provides a strong impetus for the sustained and rapid development of the national economy. However, the state and local governments have begun to carry out the real estate policy because of the contradiction between the high price of the house and the high prices. The continuous adjustment makes the whole real estate industry in a period of great adjustment, and the real estate enterprises are facing unprecedented challenges in the process of development. And because our real estate industry itself has a long development cycle, large scale of investment, non standard construction, unstrict acceptance, many development processes, and a wide range of aspects, and so on. It is a kind of industry which needs huge initial investment and high risk, and it is a very significant industry in return. This determines that the real estate development process will face many uncertainties. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk analysis and economic evaluation on real estate projects, through scientific and effective risk management process, Identify the real estate industry to face risks, analyze the risk of identifying risk and the degree of harm, and then formulate effective measures to control and prevent the risk effectively, and finally achieve effective reduction of risk may bring loss to the real estate project, improve the competitive ability and profitability of the project. This paper attempts to risk management. The related theory is applied to concrete and practical real estate development projects. Through a detailed and comprehensive summary of the project risk management theory, the appropriate project management evaluation method is selected, the project risk management process is strictly according to the project, and the specific and comprehensive risk management of the project is carried out in the light of the specific situation of the central construction project in the center of the century. The first part mainly introduces the background of the theory of project risk management and the basic content of the present research at home and abroad, and introduces the main purpose and framework of the article. The second part mainly introduces the theoretical basis of the project risk management, and detailed the risk management methods in detail. This paper introduces the specific process of project risk management and various evaluation methods used in the process of project risk management, such as Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The third part introduces the basic situation of the central project of the outstanding century, including the geographical location of the project, the economic environment on the side of the project, the actual planning and construction of the project. The fourth part mainly introduces the basis of the project risk identification, and uses Delphy Fa to identify the risk of the project, then evaluates the identified project risk, evaluates the probability of the occurrence of various risks and the extent of the possible loss after the occurrence; the fifth part focuses on the identification of the risk. The project quality risk, progress risk, economic risk and technical risk use analytic hierarchy process, establish index system, construct judgement matrix to carry on risk evaluation, get the weight of each specific risk event in the whole risk, provide reliable and true basis for controlling risk. The sixth part mainly is the basis of risk identification and evaluation in the previous article. The seventh part is the conclusion and the prospect for the project risk management. The results of this paper not only have important significance to the investment decision of the developers, but also expect to provide the research and practice of the risk management of similar real estate development projects in the future. On the basis of the characteristics of real estate and the strong uncertainty of the real estate, we should strengthen the awareness of risk prevention, improve the anti risk ability of the central project in the century of excellence, reduce the loss caused by the risk, improve the profitability and competitive ability of the project, and ensure the success of the project.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;TU71

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