本文選題：高速鐵路 + 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格��； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以京滬高鐵為例,通過構(gòu)建“可對(duì)比城市群”,采用基于“自然實(shí)驗(yàn)”思想的雙重差分估計(jì)法,較為準(zhǔn)確地測(cè)度了高速鐵路的規(guī)劃出臺(tái)、動(dòng)工建設(shè)及開通運(yùn)營對(duì)沿線站點(diǎn)城市平均房價(jià)的不同影響時(shí)效,并進(jìn)一步探究了高速鐵路這種房價(jià)驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)的動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì)。研究表明,高速鐵路對(duì)其沿線站點(diǎn)城市平均房價(jià)的影響力受三種驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)的共同作用,即供給側(cè)的地價(jià)推升效應(yīng)、房地產(chǎn)商的競爭效應(yīng)及需求側(cè)的需求拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)。這三種房價(jià)驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)在高速鐵路建設(shè)進(jìn)程中的不同階段呈現(xiàn)出不同的強(qiáng)度,進(jìn)而演化出不同的綜合效應(yīng)。以京滬高鐵為例,在建設(shè)規(guī)劃的出臺(tái)期,由于新房地產(chǎn)商同既存房地產(chǎn)商之間尚未構(gòu)成實(shí)質(zhì)性的競爭以及購房需求者尚未形成立即購房的意愿,京滬高鐵建設(shè)規(guī)劃的出臺(tái)并沒有對(duì)站點(diǎn)城市的平均房價(jià)帶來顯著的推動(dòng)作用;在項(xiàng)目的動(dòng)工建設(shè)期,由于新房地產(chǎn)商同既存房地產(chǎn)商的競爭程度較弱,而始于規(guī)劃期的地價(jià)推升效應(yīng)與新增購房者的需求拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)的聯(lián)合效應(yīng)占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)地位,因而導(dǎo)致京滬高鐵的開工建設(shè)對(duì)沿線站點(diǎn)城市的房價(jià)呈現(xiàn)出顯著的正向促進(jìn)作用,具體而言,在較為完備地控制了其他影響因素的情況下,京滬高鐵的正式開工建設(shè)使沿線站點(diǎn)城市的商品房平均價(jià)格上漲了約3.70%,且這種正向的房價(jià)驅(qū)動(dòng)效應(yīng)存在2年左右的延時(shí);在京滬高鐵的開通運(yùn)營期,由于新進(jìn)駐房地產(chǎn)商同既存房地產(chǎn)商的競爭效應(yīng)日趨激烈,以至超過了積累了兩期的地價(jià)推升效應(yīng)與新增購房者的需求拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)的聯(lián)合效應(yīng),京滬高鐵的正式開通運(yùn)營不但未對(duì)站點(diǎn)城市的平均房價(jià)帶來顯著的推動(dòng)作用,反而表現(xiàn)出顯著的抑制作用,具體而言,京滬高鐵的正式開通運(yùn)營對(duì)沿線站點(diǎn)城市商品房平均價(jià)格的抑制作用為3.81%,且這種對(duì)于房價(jià)的抑制效應(yīng)存在1年左右的延時(shí)。
[Abstract]:Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, by constructing "comparable urban agglomeration" and adopting the method of double difference estimation based on "natural experiment", the planning of high-speed railway is measured more accurately. The effect of construction and operation on the average housing price of the city along the railway station is different, and the dynamic trend of the price driving effect of high speed railway is further explored. The research shows that the influence of high-speed railway on the average housing price of the city along the railway station is affected by three driving effects, namely, the supply-side land price push effect, the competition effect of the real estate developer and the demand-driven effect of the demand side. These three kinds of price-driven effects show different intensities in different stages of high-speed railway construction, and then evolve different comprehensive effects. Take the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, in the period of construction planning, since there has not been substantial competition between the new real estate developers and the existing real estate developers, and the buyers have not yet formed the will to purchase houses immediately. The introduction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail construction plan has not significantly promoted the average housing prices of the site cities; during the construction period of the project, the degree of competition between the new real estate developers and the existing real estate developers was weak. However, the combined effect of the land price boost effect, which began in the planning period, and the demand pull effect of the new buyers occupied a dominant position, which led to the construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail project showing a significant positive promotion effect on the housing prices of the cities along the railway stations. Specifically, where other factors are more fully controlled, The official construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has caused the average price of commercial housing in the cities along the railway stations to rise by about 3.70 percent, and this positive housing price driving effect has been delayed for about two years; in the opening period of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line, Due to the increasingly fierce competition between new property developers and existing real estate developers, it exceeds the combined effect of the accumulation of two periods of land price boost effect and the demand pull effect of new buyers. The official opening and operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has not only not significantly promoted the average housing prices of the station cities, but on the contrary, it has shown a significant restraining effect. Specifically, The official opening and operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has a restraining effect of 3.81% on the average price of commercial housing in the cities along the line, and there is a delay of about one year on the inhibition effect of this kind of housing price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F532

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