本文選題：商品住宅 + 需求分析　； 參考：《江西理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展深遠(yuǎn)的影響著社會的其他各行各業(yè)，強(qiáng)勁的帶動力、高關(guān)聯(lián)度的特點(diǎn)使得其在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中占有了非常重要的地位。當(dāng)前良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，國民經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展，不足之處在于房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了一系列矛盾，如土地資源浪費(fèi)嚴(yán)重、房價(jià)收入比居高不下、房價(jià)泡沫化加劇、房屋空置現(xiàn)象嚴(yán)重等。 贛州市中心城區(qū)商品住宅消費(fèi)市場在迅速發(fā)展的同時,也凸顯出許多問題,比如,商品住宅價(jià)格增速過快，商品住宅供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等現(xiàn)象，供給和需求因素是影響贛州市中心城區(qū)住宅消費(fèi)市場的兩大基本因素,其中需求因素在當(dāng)前贛州市住宅市場中起著重要作用，因此,如何研究和調(diào)控住宅需求,對建設(shè)健康完善的贛州市中心城區(qū)住宅市場有著積極意義。本文對國內(nèi)外住宅市場需求研究進(jìn)行綜述,在對贛州市中心城區(qū)商品住宅市場發(fā)展歷程、現(xiàn)狀、問題進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法對贛州市中心城區(qū)商品住宅市場需求因素進(jìn)行定性及定量分析,篩選出中心城區(qū)GDP值、人均可支配收入、人均居住面積、非農(nóng)業(yè)人口四個與商品住宅銷售面積關(guān)聯(lián)度較高的四個指標(biāo)，再通過構(gòu)建GM（1,1）模型對這四個主要影響因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行定量預(yù)測,結(jié)合GM（1，N）模型得出未來五年贛州市中心城區(qū)商品住宅需求量，，最后提出基于調(diào)控住宅市場需求，促進(jìn)贛州市中心城區(qū)商品住宅市場穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展的對策。
[Abstract]:The development of real estate has a profound influence on all walks of life in the society. It has a very important position in the development of national economy because of its strong driving force and high correlation degree. In the current good economic environment, the national economy has developed steadily, and the shortcomings lie in a series of contradictions in the real estate field, such as the serious waste of land resources, the high ratio of house prices to income, and the intensification of the bubble of house prices. With the rapid development of the commodity housing consumption market in the downtown area of Ganzhou, many problems have also been highlighted, such as the rapid growth of commodity housing prices and the unreasonable supply structure of commodity housing. Supply and demand are the two basic factors that affect the residential consumption market in the central district of Ganzhou, among which demand factors play an important role in the current housing market of Ganzhou. Therefore, how to study and regulate the housing demand, For the construction of a healthy and sound Ganzhou city housing market has a positive significance. In this paper, the domestic and foreign residential market demand research is summarized, on the basis of the analysis of the development process, current situation and problems of the commercial housing market in the central urban area of Ganzhou City, By using the grey correlation degree analysis method, the demand factors of the commercial housing market in the central district of Ganzhou city are qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed, and the GDP value, the per capita disposable income, the living area per capita of the central urban area are screened out. There are four indexes with high correlation degree between the non-agricultural population and the commercial housing sales area, and then the quantitative prediction of the four main influencing factors is carried out through the construction of the GMM1 / 1) model. According to the GMGM1N) model, the demand for commercial housing in the central urban area of Ganzhou City in the next five years is obtained. Finally, the countermeasures to promote the stable and healthy development of the commercial housing market in the central district of Ganzhou City are put forward based on the regulation of the housing market demand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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