本文選題：城市綜合體 + 價值評估��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產行業(yè)是國民經濟的重要命脈，隨著房地產行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展，傳統(tǒng)的致力于住宅開發(fā)的房地產開發(fā)企業(yè)正在轉型，逐步向多元化發(fā)展。戰(zhàn)略轉型的過程對房地產開發(fā)企業(yè)是機遇也是挑戰(zhàn)，如何在眾房地產企業(yè)中以最合適的價格去拿地，，如何準確評估項目價值也相應成為房地產開發(fā)企業(yè)以及資本市場關注的焦點。 對于房地產項目價值評估，常用的定價模型是現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型，該模型使用未來的現(xiàn)金流情況折現(xiàn)后去估計項目整體價值。但是，現(xiàn)金流模型的缺陷也是非常明顯的，對于未來經營情況的不確定性，數(shù)據(jù)的可調整的范圍很大，直接導致運用模型計算得到的項目價值可信度較低。 本文從中國商業(yè)地產發(fā)展的歷程出發(fā)，首先分析了商業(yè)地產的特征，然后基于這些特征，結合金融工程理論對模型進行了重點分析和改進，從而彌補了現(xiàn)金流估值模型的部分缺陷，增強了模型的可操作性和可靠性，同時，深入分析了改進后的模型應用于地產項目估值應用的優(yōu)勢和現(xiàn)階段應用的不足之處。最后，對模型做了部分敏感性測試并分析了相關參數(shù)的性質和意義。 通過本文的研究，期權定價模型相比其他幾種依賴于現(xiàn)金流估值模型，更適合對商業(yè)地產項目價值評估，不過本文推導的模型也有一定局限性。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important lifeline of the national economy. With the rapid development of the real estate industry, the traditional real estate development enterprise which devotes to the residential development is transforming and gradually developing to the diversification. The process of strategic transformation is an opportunity and a challenge for the real estate development enterprises. How to get the land at the most appropriate price among the real estate enterprises? How to accurately evaluate the value of the project has also become the focus of real estate development enterprises and the capital market. For real estate project valuation, the commonly used pricing model is the cash flow discount model, which uses the future cash flow discount to estimate the overall value of the project. However, the defects of cash flow model are also very obvious. For the uncertainty of future business situation, the range of data can be adjusted is very large, which directly leads to the low credibility of the project value calculated by using the model. Starting from the course of the development of commercial real estate in China, this paper first analyzes the characteristics of commercial real estate, and then, based on these characteristics, combines the theory of financial engineering to analyze and improve the model. It makes up for some defects of the cash flow valuation model and enhances the maneuverability and reliability of the model. At the same time, the advantages of the improved model applied to the real estate project valuation and the shortcomings of the current application are analyzed in depth. Finally, some sensitivity tests of the model are made and the properties and significance of the related parameters are analyzed. Through the research of this paper, the option pricing model is more suitable for evaluating the value of commercial real estate project than other models which depend on cash flow valuation, but the model derived in this paper also has some limitations.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1966307