本文選題：人民幣匯率預(yù)期 + 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　； 參考：《軟科學(xué)》2017年12期

【摘要】：通過(guò)構(gòu)建時(shí)間序列(2005.7~2016.12)的STR模型,本文驗(yàn)證了人民幣匯率預(yù)期對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的非線性效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果顯示:漸進(jìn)穩(wěn)步的升值預(yù)期(2005.7~2014.12)通過(guò)資本流動(dòng)效應(yīng)促進(jìn)了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲;而大幅度的升值預(yù)期將促使房?jī)r(jià)急劇上漲以及資產(chǎn)泡沫化。由于央行外匯市場(chǎng)干預(yù)以及寬松貨幣信貸政策導(dǎo)致大量流動(dòng)性進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),近年大幅貶值預(yù)期(2015.1~2016.12)加劇了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的不斷攀升。貨幣供應(yīng)量較人民幣匯率預(yù)期對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響系數(shù)更大,表明2005年匯率改革以來(lái)我國(guó)總體相對(duì)寬松的貨幣政策是房?jī)r(jià)上漲以及資產(chǎn)泡沫化的主要原因。政策建議為,進(jìn)一步完善人民幣匯率市場(chǎng)化形成機(jī)制,積極引導(dǎo)和穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率預(yù)期,減弱國(guó)際市場(chǎng)對(duì)人民幣匯率大幅升值或大幅貶值的預(yù)期;央行應(yīng)保持貨幣政策穩(wěn)健中性,在保持流動(dòng)性合理充裕的同時(shí),注重抑制資產(chǎn)泡沫和防范經(jīng)濟(jì)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:By constructing the STR model of time series, this paper verifies the nonlinear effect of RMB exchange rate expectation on real estate prices in China. The results show that the gradual and steady appreciation expectation can promote the rise of real estate prices through the effect of capital flow, while the large appreciation expectation will promote the sharp rise of house prices and the bubble of assets. As the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market and easy monetary and credit policies led to a large amount of liquidity entering the real estate market, the expectation of a sharp depreciation in recent years has exacerbated the rising real estate prices in China. The influence coefficient of money supply on house price is greater than the RMB exchange rate expectation, which indicates that the relatively loose monetary policy since the exchange rate reform in 2005 is the main reason for the rise of house price and the bubble of assets. The policy suggestions are to further improve the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate, actively guide and stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate, and weaken the expectation that the international market will greatly appreciate or devalue the RMB exchange rate; The central bank should keep the monetary policy steady and neutral, while keeping the liquidity reasonably abundant, pay attention to restrain the asset bubble and guard against the economic and financial risk.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金國(guó)際合作研究項(xiàng)目(71661137003) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目(14BJY187) 教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目(15JZD013)
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.6
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本文編號(hào)：1958425