本文選題：住宅市場需求量 + 影響因素�。� 參考：《東北林業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展,住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)進入了一個市場化和商品化的時期。目前,我國住宅市場己初具規(guī)模,無論對整個房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè),還是對關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)、人居環(huán)境和社會經(jīng)濟的影響都非常明顯。所以,建立科學(xué)的預(yù)測模型對住宅市場需求量進行預(yù)測,既有利于對住宅市場發(fā)展進行短期控制和平衡,也對整個住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)的長期發(fā)展規(guī)劃起到重要作用。 本文研究的主要目的是通過運用灰關(guān)聯(lián)分析和因子分析對影響哈爾濱市住宅需求量的因素做研究,利用GM(1,1)模型以及BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型,對哈爾濱市住宅市場的發(fā)展進行分析和預(yù)測,將結(jié)果進行對比分析,從而豐富和發(fā)展上述理論和方法的應(yīng)用體系,為相關(guān)政府和企業(yè)做出科學(xué)的決策提供依據(jù)。 住宅需求的變化是住宅市場發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)因素,是住宅供應(yīng)變動的牽動力,是住宅供應(yīng)的出發(fā)點和歸宿。只有對住宅市場的需求做出正確的分析和準(zhǔn)確的判斷,掌握其發(fā)展規(guī)律和趨勢,才能為政府部門制定相應(yīng)的宏觀調(diào)控政策提供借鑒,為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)未來的發(fā)展提供幫助。因此,本文將哈爾濱市的住宅市場需求量作為研究對象,首先研究關(guān)于住宅市場、住宅市場需求的概念和理論,并介紹哈爾濱市住宅市場的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀；其次對哈爾濱市住宅市場需求的影響因素進行灰關(guān)聯(lián)定量分析和因子分析,找出可以統(tǒng)計和量化的影響因素,并根據(jù)與住宅需求關(guān)聯(lián)程度大小進行排序,指出影響哈爾濱市住宅市場需求變化的最主要因素,最后通過灰色GM(1,1)模型和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型對哈爾濱市未來五年的住宅市場需求量進行預(yù)測,將兩種方法的預(yù)測結(jié)果進行對比分析,最終得出結(jié)論,為哈爾濱市商品住宅市場需求量研究提供幫助。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's real estate market, the housing industry has entered a period of marketization and commercialization. At present, the housing market of our country has begun to take shape, whether to the whole real estate industry, or to the related industry, the influence of human settlement environment and social economy is very obvious. Therefore, the establishment of a scientific forecasting model to forecast the demand of the housing market is not only conducive to the short-term control and balance of the development of the housing market, but also plays an important role in the long-term development planning of the entire housing industry. The main purpose of this paper is to use grey correlation analysis and factor analysis to study the factors that affect the housing demand in Harbin. The development of housing market in Harbin is analyzed and forecasted, and the results are compared and analyzed, so as to enrich and develop the application system of the above theories and methods, and provide the basis for the relevant governments and enterprises to make scientific decisions. The change of housing demand is the leading factor in the development of housing market, the driving force of the change of housing supply, and the starting point and destination of housing supply. Only by making correct analysis and accurate judgment on the demand of housing market and mastering its development law and trend can we provide reference for government departments to formulate corresponding macro-control policies and provide help for the future development of real estate enterprises. Therefore, this paper takes the housing market demand of Harbin as the research object. Firstly, it studies the concept and theory of housing market and housing market demand, and introduces the present situation of housing market in Harbin. Secondly, the influencing factors of housing market demand in Harbin are analyzed quantitatively by grey correlation and factor analysis, and the influencing factors that can be counted and quantified are found out, and the order is made according to the degree of correlation with housing demand. This paper points out the main factors that influence the change of housing market demand in Harbin, and finally forecasts the demand of housing market in Harbin in the next five years by means of grey GM1 / 1) model and BP neural network forecasting model. The results of the two methods are compared and analyzed, and the conclusion is drawn, which can be helpful to the study of the demand of the commercial housing market in Harbin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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本文編號：1920839