本文選題：貨幣政策傳導機制 + 房價��； 參考：《寧波大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國資本市場的發(fā)展，股票市場和房地產(chǎn)市場在我國貨幣政策傳導過程中充當著重要角色。貨幣政策的傳導渠道可以分為利率傳導渠道、信貸傳導渠道和資本市場傳導渠道。資本市場傳導渠道又包括股票市場傳導、房地產(chǎn)市場傳導和匯率市場傳導機制。文章分別從理論和實證層面分析了貨幣政策的房價傳導機制和傳導效率。 這篇文章主要分為五部分。第一部分為總論。第二部分是文獻綜述部分。第三部分建立了我國貨幣政策的房價傳導的理論機制。文章在第四部分建立了聯(lián)立方程模型和結構向量自回歸模型，分別從靜態(tài)和動態(tài)兩個層面分析了貨幣政策的房價傳導機制。實證過程得出結果如下： （1）貨幣政策從銀行和金融機構傳導到中間變量——房價——的過程中，銀行發(fā)揮著不可替代的地位。其中銀行信貸水平對房價有顯著的影響，銀行貸款利率對房價的影響有時滯效應，但是長期來看銀行貸款基準利率的調(diào)整會拉低房價，而市場利率對房價雖然有負的影響，但持續(xù)時間不長。 （2）在實體經(jīng)濟層面，房價對消費的影響主要為負，房價的托賓Q效應比家庭財富效應顯著。房價的上漲會帶動物價上漲，，存在滯后性。房價波動對經(jīng)濟增長有帶動的作用，但是這種帶動作用不能持續(xù)。 第四部分針對本文的研究結果提出了幾條對策建議。 本文在前人研究的基礎上考慮了央行調(diào)整銀行基準貸款利率對房價水平的影響，在實證方法上用到了聯(lián)立方程模型來分析貨幣政策通過房地產(chǎn)市場的靜態(tài)傳導情況，這些都是本文的創(chuàng)新點。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's capital market, stock market and real estate market play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. The transmission channel of monetary policy can be divided into interest rate transmission channel, credit transmission channel and capital market transmission channel. Capital market transmission channels include stock market transmission, real estate market transmission and exchange rate market transmission mechanism. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism and efficiency of monetary policy from theoretical and empirical aspects. This article is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction. The second part is the literature review part. The third part establishes the theoretical mechanism of housing price transmission of monetary policy in China. In the fourth part, the simultaneous equation model and structural vector autoregressive model are established, and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is analyzed from static and dynamic aspects. The results of the empirical process are as follows: Bank plays an irreplaceable role in the process of transferring monetary policy from banks and financial institutions to intermediate variables-house prices. Among them, bank credit level has a significant impact on house prices, and bank loan interest rates have a delay effect on house prices. But in the long run, the adjustment of bank loan benchmark interest rates will lower house prices, while market interest rates have a negative impact on house prices. But it didn't last long. 2) in the real economy, the effect of house price on consumption is mainly negative, and the Tobin Q effect of house price is more significant than that of household wealth. The rise in house prices will drive prices up and lag behind. The fluctuation of house price has the function of driving economic growth, but this kind of driving effect cannot be sustained. The fourth part puts forward several countermeasures and suggestions on the results of this paper. On the basis of previous studies, this paper considers the influence of the central bank adjusting the bank benchmark loan interest rate on the housing price level, and uses the simultaneous equation model to analyze the static conduction of monetary policy through the real estate market. These are the innovative points of this paper.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

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本文編號：1858100